BMI View: Taiwan's freight transport sector is set to struggle in 2015, on the back of continued export headwinds from a slowing Chinese economy. Air freight is set to be the outperforming sector in terms of tonnage, with annual gains of 4.08% forecast for the year. Road and rail freight are set to grow by no more than 0.97% and 1.86% respectively, although this will still represent an improvement year-on-year for both.
BMI believes that Taiwanese exports will continue to face external headwinds from both the ongoing economic slowdown in China as well as the relative strength of the TWD compared to the KRW. Considering its status as Taiwan's largest trade partner (accounting for approximately 40.0% of exports), the ongoing slowdown in China's economy will continue to weigh on Taiwan's export growth.
Road freight remains the dominant mode in Taiwan and in 2015 we expect it to perform modestly with annual growth of 0.97% to reach 547.19mn tonnes - this has been revised downwards from last quarter with an improving domestic demand picture being offset by external headwinds, such as growing competition from regional peer South Korea as a trade partner to China.
Growth in rail freight is set to come in at just 1.86%, although it is up on 2014's 0.50% increase, a knock-on effect of the fact that Taiwan is an island and so relies far more on its shipping sector to serve its trade needs with other countries and road freight for its domestic needs. Over the medium-term forecast period, however, we anticipate this level of growth increasing 1.93%; underpinning rail freight growth is falling oil prices, which will continue to provide some support for the domestic economy.
Over the medium term, between 2015 and 2019, we expect that air freight will see the strongest growth, although we do caution that the country's over-reliance on tech-related exports leaves Taiwan somewhat vulnerable to changes in the global electronics business cycle. Maturity of the market means that...
The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.