Taiwan Freight Transport Report

Published 19 June 2015

  • 61 pages
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$1,295.00
Taiwan Freight Transport Report

BMI View: Over 2015, the outperforming freight mode in terms of year-on-year ( y-o-y ) tonnage growth is set to be the air freight sector with annual gains of 4.08% pencilled in for the year. The other modes are set to struggle to top 1% y-o-y growth this year, but this will still represent an improvement year-on-year for both road and rail. Growth in Q1 2015 was fuelled by both export and private consumption growth, which largely outweighed the collapse in both government consumption and gross fixed capital formation, proving positive for the country's freight modes.

Taiwan's Q1 2015 real GDP grew by 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), picking up slightly from 3.3% in Q4 2014. We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2015 amid a fairly positive domestic outlook, but note that a challenging external environment will continue to present headwinds to Taiwanese exports over the short term. We do caution, however, that any resumption in cross-strait political tensions is likely to have rapid and negative consequences for the Taiwanese freight mix.

Taiwan relies on its road freight network above all others and in 2015 we expect this mode to perform modestly with annual growth of 0.97% pencilled in to reach 654.65mn tonnes - this has been revised downwards from last quarter with an improving domestic demand picture being offset by external headwinds, such as growing competition from regional peer South Korea as a trade partner to China. This follows two volatile years, with a big contraction of 15.62% registered in 2013, followed by large growth of 16.48% in 2014. Road freight's dominance in Taiwan's freight transport mix has developed due to the country's relatively dense road network, with the Taiwan's roads stretching for 41,475km, compared with its rail freight network, which extends for just 1,580km.

Meanwhile, the rail freight sector is set to see the slowest growth rate in 2015, coming in at just 0.86%, albeit up on 2014's 0.50% increase, a knock-on...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Road
19
Table: Road Freight (Taiwan 2012-2019)
20
Rail
20
Table: Rail Freight (Taiwan 2012-2019)
21
Air
21
Table: Air Freight (Taiwan 2012-2019)
21
Maritime
22
Table: Maritime Freight (Taiwan 2012-2019)
23
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview (Taiwan 2012-2019)
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Taiwan 2012-2019)
24
Market Overview
26
Company Profile
31
China Airlines Cargo (CAC)
31
EVA Air Cargo
34
Political Outlook
37
Domestic Politics
37
Combination Of Factors Contributed To DPP Win
37
KMT Loss Indicates Rejection Of Policies
37
Taipei: A Sign Of Things To Come-
38
Wider Political Implications
38
Table: Taiwan Political Overview
39
Long-Term Political Outlook
40
Oil Price Outlook
46
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
46
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
46
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
47
Macroeconomic Forecasts
49
Economic Analysis
49
Table: Economic Activity (Taiwan 2010-2019)
52
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Taiwan 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Taiwan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Taiwan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Taiwan 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Taiwan 1990-2025)
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59

The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc