Taiwan Oil & Gas Report

Published 09 June 2015

  • 118 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Taiwan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Despite a lower oil price environment, rising energy efficiency and import constraints will prevent weaker prices from increasing oil and gas consumption. We also note Taiwan's shares in the regional refined fuels exports market will come under growing competition from refining capacity expansions in the region's emerging economies, which will moderate their need for imports in the medium to long term

Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: TBOE, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 17.2 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.4 18.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,021.5 1,006.2 986.1 936.8 927.4 918.1 913.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 965.2 960.5 951.0 941.6 932.3 927.7 923.2
  • The expected start-up of Taiwan's third LNG import facility - the Taoyuan LNG terminal - will increase the country's import capacity from 2022, and allow for greater gas consumption, as growing public aversion towards nuclear energy will likely lead to a nationwide decommissioning of its existing nuclear plants from 2017-2018.

  • The closure of the Kaohsiung refinery will lead Taiwan's refined fuels output to trend downwards through to 2024, and see the country become a small net importer of refined products from 2016 as output fails to keep up with demand.

  • Taiwan will remain heavily dependent on crude oil and LNG imports due to the lack of upstream production prospects in the country.

  • It is heavily reliant on the Middle East for crude oil imports, thus making it particularly vulnerable to any supply shocks from that region.

  • Qatar will remain an important source of LNG, although new supplies...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Taiwan 2013-2018)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Taiwan 2019-2024)
9
Upstream Production - Oil
11
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Oil Production (Taiwan 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Production - Gas
13
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2013-2018)
13
Table: Gas Production (Taiwan 2019-2024)
13
Risks To Outlook
14
Refining
15
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2013-2018)
15
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Taiwan 2019-2024)
15
Refining Capacity
15
Refined Oil Production
16
Refined Fuels Consumption
18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Taiwan 2013-2018)
18
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Taiwan 2019-2024)
18
Non-Energy Use To Rally Temporarily
20
Gas Consumption
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Gas Consumption (Taiwan 2019-2024)
21
Energy Demand Provides Upside
22
Trade - Oil
24
Crude Oil Imports
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2013-2018)
24
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Taiwan 2019-2024)
24
Refined Oil Imports
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Taiwan 2019-2024)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Taiwan 2013-2018)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Taiwan 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Taiwan 2019-2024)
35
Sources Of Imports
36
Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Table: Asia: Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Oil Price Takes Its Toll
39
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index
39
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Weak Prices Provide Little Cheer
41
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Index
44
Taiwan Upstream Index - Overview
44
Taiwan Upstream Index - Rewards
44
Taiwan Upstream Index - Risks
44
Taiwan Downstream Index - Overview
44
Market Overview
45
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
45
Overview
45
State Role
46
Licensing And Regulation
47
Government Policy
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Taiwan
50
Service Stations
51
Oil Storage
51
LNG Terminals
52
Gas Pipelines
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector
54
Table: Key Upstream Player
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
55
Company Profile
56
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC)
56
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
63
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
67
Asia Oil And Gas Regional Overview
67
Upstream Production: Affected By Weak Prices
67
Asia: Hit By Industry Spending Caution
70
Downstream: Fierce Market Competition To Endure
71
Oil Consumption: Lower Prices Compensate For Subsidy Cuts
75
Gas Consumption: South Catches Up With North
76
Markets To Watch: India And Indonesia
78
Global Industry Overview
81
Oil Price Outlook
81
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
81
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
82
Appendix
89
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
89
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
89
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
90
Asia - Regional Appendix
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
100
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
101
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
102
Taiwan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2013-2018)
103
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2019-2024)
103
Taiwan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Taiwan 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Taiwan 2019-2024)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Taiwan 2013-2018)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Taiwan 2019-2024)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Taiwan 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Taiwan 2019-2024)
110
Glossary
111
Table: Glossary Of Terms
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Source
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
117
Table: Weighting
118

The Taiwan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Taiwan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Taiwan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Taiwan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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