BMI View: Despite a lower oil price environment, rising energy efficiency and import constraints will prevent weaker prices from increasing oil and gas consumption. We also note Taiwan's shares in the regional refined fuels exports market will come under growing competition from refining capacity expansions in the region's emerging economies, which will moderate their need for imports in the medium to long term .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: TBOE, EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||17.4||17.1||17.1||17.1||17.4||18.0||18.2|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||1,006.2||986.1||936.8||927.4||918.1||913.5||911.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||960.5||951.0||941.6||932.3||927.7||923.2||921.5|
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
As of January 1 2016, Taiwan's state-owned CPC Corporation officially closed its Kaohsiung oil refinery. This has reduced the country's overall crude oil refining capacity by 16.8% to 1.1mn b/d.
Taiwan's refined fuels consumption will remain weak over the next two years, contracting by 1.5% from 937,170b/d in 2016 to 923,160b/d in 2018. This will be the result of subdued economic performance, a sharp slowdown in car sales growth and rising fuel efficiency among the country's vehicle fleet.
According to Platts reports in late 2015, Taiwan's private refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corporation plans to double 10ppm sulfur gasoil exports to Philippines from 2016, as the country switches to Euro 4-compliant standards.
The decline in Taiwan's refining capacity is expected to lower net crude oil imports by 5% (year-on-year) to 935,050b/d in 2016. We expect the net imports of crude to continue declining across our forecast period to around 901,000b/d in 2025.
We hold our previous forecast that Taiwan to become a small net refined products importer in 2016. However, the imports of refined products will remain small, rising to 8,590b/d in 2025.
We estimate that Taiwan imported 16.7bcm of gas in 2015 and forecast the imports to remain stable in 2016 and 2017. The expansion of the LNG import capacity in 2018 and 2022 will lift the country's gas import volumes to 19.9bcm by 2025.
The Taiwan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Taiwan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Taiwan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Taiwan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.