Taiwan Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 January 2015

  • 112 pages
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Taiwan Oil & Gas Report
  • BMI View:

  • Like many of its larger Asian neighbours, the Taiwanese economy is heavily reliant upon oil and natural gas exports, particularly from the Middle East. Having largely held its own in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, Taiwan's export-based economy will invariably need a variety of sources of energy in the coming years. The oil price slump in late 2014 has allowed Taiwan to both capitali s e on more imports, but also diversify is import origins. In the coming years, the future of LNG, the capacity of Russian gas exports to penetrate East, and the and the opening up of Iran for more trade will have significant impact to Taiwan's natural gas consumption.

Headline Forecasts (Taiwan 2012-2018)
2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 16.9 17.1 16.7 16.6 16.7 16.7 17.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,002.8 922.5 908.7 907.8 898.7 903.2 907.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 894.2 889.9 885.5 881.2 885.7 890.1 892.0
EIA/BMI

Click here to explore data

The key trends for Taiwanese oil and gas sector are:

  • While nuclear aversion provides upside potential for gas consumption, this will be capped by Taiwan's LNG import capacity unless a proposed third terminal comes online. We do not expect the third terminal to be ready until after the end of our forecast period in 2023.

  • Similar to Japan and Australia, the scaling back of Taiwan's refined oil production, primarily due to the closure of the Kaohsiung refinery in 2015, will add pressure to existing refineries to compensate the decrease of production.

  • However, there is also an opportunity to begin revamping older, but much needed refineries to boost the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data (Taiwan 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data (Taiwan 2018-2023)
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports (Taiwan 2012-2017)
12
Table: Oil Production and Net Exports (Taiwan 2018-2023)
13
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2012-2017)
15
Table: Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Taiwan 2018-2023)
16
LNG
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption (Taiwan 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refining - Production and Consumption (Taiwan 2018-2023)
21
Revenues/Import Costs
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
26
The Upstream Leaders
26
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
29
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Downstream Support
31
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Taiwan - Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Overview
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Rewards
37
Taiwan Upstream Rating - Risks
37
Taiwan Downstream Rating - Overview
37
Market Overview
38
Taiwan Energy Market Overview
38
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Refineries In Taiwan
40
Service Stations
41
Oil Storage
41
LNG Terminals
41
Gas Pipelines
42
Competitive Landscape
43
Competitive Landscape Summary
43
Table: Key Players - Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector
43
Table: Key Upstream Player
44
Table: Key Downstream Players
44
Company Profile
45
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC)
45
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
51
Other Summaries
54
Regional Overview
55
Asia Overview
55
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
55
Tightening In The Downstream
59
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
63
A Hot Market For LNG
67
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
70
Global Industry Overview
72
Global Energy Market Overview
72
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
74
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
75
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
76
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
78
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
78
Appendix
81
Asia - Regional Appendix
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
83
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
84
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
86
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
87
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
88
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
88
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
90
Taiwan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
92
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
92
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
93
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
95
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
96
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Export Breakdown, 2012-2017
98
Table: Taiwan Refined Petroleum Products, Net Export Breakdown, 2018-2023
99
Glossary
101
Table: Glossary Of Terms
101
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Source
105
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
105
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
107
Table: Weighting
108

The Taiwan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Taiwan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Taiwan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Taiwan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc