BMI View: Limited reserves base, no major exploration activities and small production levels will continue to limit Taiwan's attractiveness in the upstream sector. That said, the country boasts a large and well-developed downstream sector, which is undergoing modernisation. Upgrades will increase the refining efficiency and raise the country's exports of middle distillates. In terms of gas, demand and imports are set to rise over the coming decade, driven by the nuclear phase-out in the power sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7||1.7|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||874.6||864.0||820.8||861.8||887.7||896.6||905.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||976.9||997.6||1,005.6||1,010.6||1,013.7||1,015.7||1,017.8|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.3||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||16.4||16.5||16.6||16.7||17.0||17.3||17.7|
Latest Updates A nd Key Forecasts
Taiwan has a small hydrocarbons reserve base, which is forecast to continue declining over the coming decade as no major exploration activities are taking place. This will further limit oil and gas production levels, which are already insignificant.
Taiwan boasts a large and well-developed refining sector. Upgrades at the Dalin facility, scheduled to be completed until 2017, will improve the refining efficiency and lift refined products output from 2017 onwards. This will subsequently raise Taiwan's demand for crude oil and increase the country's exports of diesel, motor gasoline and residual fuel oil. Nonetheless, Taiwan will remain a net importer of refined fuels across 2016-2025.
Considering sluggish economic growth, slow expansion of the country's vehicle fleet and efficiency gains in the transport sector, we forecast only a 3.0% increase in Taiwan's refined product consumption during 2016-2025.
Taiwan's government holds its decision to phase-out nuclear power by 2025. This will foster the development of coal and gas-fired generation, along with renewables. As such, Taiwan's gas consumption will be rising by an annual average of 1.7% over the coming decade. In absolute figures, consumption is set to rise from 16.5bcm in 2015 to 19.5bcm in 2025.
Considering very limited domestic gas production, increasing demand in the power sector will automatically translate into higher LNG imports. We forecast the import volumes will increase by 19.3% from 16.1bcm in 2015 to 19.2bcm in 2025.
The Taiwan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Taiwan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Taiwan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Taiwan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Taiwan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.