BMI View: Taiwan ' s commitment to phase out nuclear energy bodes well for non-hydro renewables sector, which is set to become an attractive alternative , helping to plug power supply gaps, mitigate the rise in expensive fossil fuels imports , as well as ensure greater energy security. Frequent changes to renewables policy and low liberalisation levels in the power industry have dampened investor interest in Taiwan ' s non-hydro renewables sector over the recent years. These issues will remain key to realising the sector's full potential in the next decade.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||6.970||7.380||7.750||8.160||8.550||9.040||9.470|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||19.610||5.800||4.990||5.380||4.720||5.780||4.760|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||2,303.0||2,508.8||2,765.6||3,055.9||3,302.1||3,590.9||3,857.5|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||9.0||8.9||10.2||10.5||8.1||8.8||7.4|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast total non-hydro renewables capacity growth to average 7.9% per annum over the next decade, expanding from an estimated 2,303MW in 2015 to 4,896MW in 2025. In terms of generation, growth will average 4.6% per annum over the same period, reaching 10.9TWh in 2025.
By 2025, solar power will experience strongest growth rates both in terms of generation and capacity. Nonetheless, biomass will remain the biggest non-hydro renewables generator, although the sector's expansion will be limited over the coming decade.
Government support for solar power will strengthen over the coming years, as Taiwan undertakes a nuclear power phase-down and tries to curb the need to plug power supply gaps with thermal power reliant on imported feedstock. The country's track-record of frequent changes to renewables policy informs our relatively conservative solar power forecast amid increasing government targets for the sector.
Swiss private equity firm Partners Group has agreed to invest more than USD200mn in photovoltaic projects in Taiwan as the controlling shareholder in a Taiwanese solar power development platform. The platform has signed an agreement with local firm Sinogreenergy to build up to 550MW of solar power plants across the country in the next three years. The plants will be supported by a 20-year power-purchase agreement with a state-owned utility.
The Taiwan Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Taiwan. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Taiwan, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Taiwan, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Taiwan Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwan renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwan renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Taiwan, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.