BMI View: Despite ambitious targets and strong political support, the expansion in Taiwan's non-hydro renewables sector will remain below its potential primarily due to the country's unstable regulatory environment and low liberalisation levels in the power sector. Considering Taiwan ' s commitment to phase-out nuclear power by 2025 and the significant solar panel manufacturing base in the country, we do expect growth to pick up marginally across our 10-year forecast period. That said, non-hydro renewables contribution to Taiwan's total power generation mix is forecast at just above 3 % in 2025 .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||6.780||7.170||7.510||7.910||8.270||8.730||9.140|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||20.030||5.770||4.840||5.230||4.600||5.570||4.630|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||2,303.0||2,461.9||2,657.0||2,865.7||3,081.8||3,339.3||3,581.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||9.0||6.9||7.9||7.9||7.5||8.4||7.2|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast total non-hydro renewables capacity growth to average 7.0% per annum over the next decade, expanding from an estimated 2,303MW in 2015 to 4,511MW in 2025. In terms of generation, growth is expected to average 4.5% per annum over the same period, reaching 10.5TWh in 2025.
Despite Taiwan's ambitious renewables goals, we forecast non-hydro renewables share in the country's total power mix to remain very limited. By 2025, we believe non-hydro renewables will account for 6.8% of the total capacity and 3.2% of the total generation.
According to reports in China Post, Taipower is planning to invest TWD400bn (USD12.4bn) in the development of renewable energy over the next 15 years, of which more than 80% will be allocated to wind power sector.
US-based technology company Google continues to support Taiwan's renewables industry. After announcing its intentions to provide seed funding for renewables certification programs in April 2016, more recently the company said it will source power its expanding date centre in Taiwan from renewable energy sources in Taiwan.
In May 2016, solar cell manufacturer Neo Solar Power informed about its decision to close a small-scale solar cell assembly line in Taiwan and relocate its manufacturing activities to Vietnam in order to improve cost-efficiency.
The Taiwan Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Taiwan. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Taiwan, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Taiwan, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Taiwan Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwan renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwan renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Taiwan, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.