BMI View: In 2015 we expect cargo volumes handled across Taiwan's main ports to grow at a slightly faster pace than in 2014. Tonnage growth will remain low in percentage terms, however. Box traffic at Taiwan's key ports will remain the most dynamic, but will not exceed 4% growth.
Broadly speaking, Kaohsiung. Taiwan's largest port, remains the most resilient, not least because it is attracting new investment. The policy of cross-strait integration is expected to continue.
BMI's growth predictions for Taiwan are slightly below consensus in 2015. We have cut our GDP projection to growth of 3.5% (down from 4.1% previously) reflecting the impact of weak global demand and falling domestic house prices. The latter will hold back the growth of domestic consumption. Recent food scandals, including the discovery that lard-based oil made from recycled kitchen and slaughterhouse waste was being incorporated into food products, will also have had a negative effect on consumer confidence and food exports. Exports, while remaining key to Taiwan's growth dynamics, will be influenced by the slowdown in the mainland Chinese economy, which accounts for approximately 40% of Taiwan's total overseas shipments. BMI also notes the local economy's resilience and positive signs, including strength in investment. Our medium-term outlook is for growth to average 3.9% a year in the five years to 2019.
Headline Industry Data
Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput in 2015 forecast to increase by 1.5% to 118.231mn tonnes, after forecast growth of 1.3% in 2014. Over the medium term to 2019, we project an annual average increase of 1.6%.
Kaohsiung's container throughput forecast to grow 3.8% to 10.697mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2015, up from 3.7% growth in 2014. Over the medium term we project an annual average 3.8% increase.
The port of Keelung will see small growth of tonnage in 2015, up 1.1% to 70.583mn tonnes, after a standstill year in 2014 (+0.6%). Container traffic...
The Taiwan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Taiwan.
BMI's Taiwan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Taiwan.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Taiwanese shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.