Tanzania Agribusiness Report

Published 25 March 2015

  • 87 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We continue to favour the Tanzanian coffee industry over the medium term owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter. The country's sugar sector will see limited production growth over the next few years, due to low sugar prices and Tanzania's lower productivity than many of its regional neighbours.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19 : 2.5 % to 3 23, 000 tonnes. Production growth will be limited by a lower price of sugar, lower productivity compared to regional neighbours and ongoing imports from nearby countries.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018 /19 : 3.8 % to 5. 5 mn tonnes. A combination of low prices relative to previous years and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.

  • Coffee production growth from the 2012/13 up-year to the 2018/19 up-year : 14.4 % to 1. 4 mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees and from incentives for small producers.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared with the 2014 level; forecast to average 6.8% over 2015-2019.

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 6.0% average (down from 6.5% average in 2014).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1. 9% y-o-y increase to USD3.1bn in 2015, forecast to average growth of 3.8% per year between 2015 and 2019.

Industry Developments

Many farmers have turned away from growing corn in the second vuli season, as in many cases in recent years rainfall has not been adequate to produce a profitable enough crop. Some farmers have therefore turned to more drought-resistant crops such as beans. We believe that a turn away from second-crop...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Grains Outlook
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
13
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
17
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2018)
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
22
Sugar Outlook
24
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
27
Coffee Outlook
29
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2018)
30
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2008-2013)
32
Commodities Price Analysis
34
Monthly Softs Strategy
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Grains Strategy
42
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Upstream Analysis
50
Africa GM Outlook
50
Table: Farm Size By Region
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
56
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
56
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
60
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
62
Downstream Analysis
69
Food
69
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2011-2018)
70
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
70
Drink
71
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
72
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Tanzania 2013-2018)
72
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
73
Mass Grocery Retail
74
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2018)
74
Regional Overview
75
Demographic Forecast
82
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
83
Table: Tanzania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
84
Table: Tanzania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
85
Table: Tanzania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc