Tanzania Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Tanzania Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We hold the view that the Tanzanian coffee industry will struggle over the medium term. The corn industry will benefit from solid demand from domestic and export markets , while rising income levels will stimulate rice consumption . The Tanzanian sugar sector will see limited production growth in the next few years, largely due to low sugar prices and the fact that Tanzania scores poorly on productivity measures compared to its regional neighbours.

Key Forecasts

  • We have revised downward our 2015/16 corn production forecast as 'vuli' rains, which occured during Q415, were delayed and erratic, weighing on the 'vuli' corn crop, which was harvested in Q116. The 'vuli' crop accounts for about 30% of the total corn output. Consequently, we now forecast 2015/16 production to decline by 3.5% y-o-y to 4.8mn tonnes.

  • We have revised downward the growth trajectory of our coffee production forecasts as we believe the sector will remain constrained by low yields, inferior quality and recurring smuggling, which combine to prevent farmers from investing in their crop.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.5% y-o-y (up from 6.0% in 2015)

  • 2016 Consumer Price Inflation BMI Forecast: 6.5% y-o-y (up from 5.7% y-o-y in 2015)

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, FAO

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

Corn production will decline for the second consecutive year in 2015/16, while strong demand from the domestic and export markets will maintain elevated local prices. Out to 2020, we forecast Tanzania to record growing corn surpluses as rising income levels induce greater consumption of rice and bread at the expense of corn.

We hold a positive outlook for the Tanzanian rice sector. Nevertheless, we hold the opinion that rice farming in Tanzania is largely undertaken by small farmers with basic know-how, very limited infrastructure capabilities and using traditional seed varieties. Rising income levels out to 2020 will stimulate rice consumption at the expense of more basic staples such as corn and cassava.

Tanzania will continue to grow its sugar production marginally out to 2019/2020, while the government will maintain strong oversight on the sector. Nevertheless, growth will be lacklustre at best and Tanzania will continue to import sugar to meet its demand over the next decade.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Industry Forecast
12
Coffee Outlook
12
Table: Tanzania Coffee Production & Consumption Outlook
12
Table: Risks To Outlook
13
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2020)
14
Sugar Outlook
15
Table: Tanzania Sugar Production & Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks To Outlook
16
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2020)
17
Rice Outlook
18
Table: Tanzania - Rice Production & Consumption Outlook
18
Table: Risks To Outlook
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2020)
21
Grains Outlook
22
Table: Tanzania - Corn Production & Consumption Outlook
22
Table: Risks To Outlook
23
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2012-2020)
24
Commodities Price Analysis
25
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
25
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
25
Upstream Analysis
27
Africa GM Outlook
27
Table: Farm Size By Region
31
Africa Machinery Outlook
33
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions
33
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
38
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
39
Downstream Analysis
46
Food
46
Latest Updates
46
Structural Trends
47
Table: Food Sales (Tanzania 2013-2020)
48
Regional Overview
50
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
50
Demographic Forecast
56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tanzania 1990-2025)
57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tanzania 1990-2025)
57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Tanzania 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group (Tanzania 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tanzania 1990-2025)
59
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.