Tanzania Agribusiness Report

Published 23 June 2015

  • 90 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We continue to favour the Tanzanian coffee industry over the medium term , owing to the potential for growth on the back of strong investment in capacity. The grain industry in Tanzania will remain less competitive than in other countries in the region, particularly South Africa and Zambia, and we see little potential for the country to become a major grain exporter. The country's sugar sector will see limited production growth over the next few years, due to low sugar prices and Tanzania's lower productivity than many of its regional neighbours.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 2.5% to 323,000 tonnes. Production growth will be limited by lower prices, lower productivity compared to regional neighbours and ongoing imports from nearby countries.

  • Corn consumption growth to 2018/19: 3.8% to 5.5mn tonnes. A combination of low prices relative to previous years and rising living standards is expected to drive corn consumption growth.

  • Coffee production growth to 2018/19: 81.3 % to 1. 5 mn 60kg bags. The sector is benefiting from investment in disease-resistant trees and from incentives for small producers.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 6. 5 % year-on-year (y-o-y), stable compared to 2014.

  • 2015 consumer price inflation: 6.0 % average, down from 6.5% average in 2014.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.9% y-o-y increase to USD3.1bn in 2015, forecast to average growth of 4.5% per year between 2015 and 2019.

Industry Developments

We expect sugar production growth in Tanzania to be lacklustre over the coming years. Output in 2015/16 will stagnate on the 2014/15 level, at 315,000 tonnes. The low international price of sugar will limit production in the country in the short-term and will drag on investment into the sector, which will affect output out to 2018/19.

The East African coffee sector will post...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
15
Grains Outlook
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019)
16
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2009-2014)
19
Rice Outlook
21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2013-2019)
22
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2009-2014)
24
Sugar Outlook
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019)
25
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2009-2014)
28
Coffee Outlook
29
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2014-2019)
30
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Tanzania 2009-2014)
32
Commodities Price Analysis
34
Monthly Softs Update
34
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Grains Update
42
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Upstream Analysis
51
Africa GM Outlook
51
Table: Farm Size By Region
54
Africa Machinery Outlook
57
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land
57
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)
61
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%)
61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook
62
Downstream Analysis
67
Food
67
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2012-2019)
68
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
68
Drink
69
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
70
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Tanzania 2014-2019)
70
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
71
Mass Grocery Retail
72
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
72
Regional Overview
73
Middle East & Africa Regional Overview
73
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector
75
Demographic Forecast
80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tanzania 1990-2025)
81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tanzania 1990-2025)
81
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Tanzania 1990-2025)
82
Table: Population By Age Group (Tanzania 1990-2025)
82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tanzania 1990-2025)
83
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Sector-Specific Methodology
86

The Tanzania Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Tanzania Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc