Tanzania Autos Report

Published 13 August 2015

  • 56 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Tanzania Autos Report

We are revising down our forecast for 2015 to a decline of 51.0% to 3,450 units as momentum from the country's strong sales performance in 2014 is dissipated by significant depreciation in the Tanzanian shilling raising the price of imported vehicles. Past 2015, we predict steady growth in new light vehicle sales from 2016 to 2019, averaging 22.8%.

However, we stress that owing to the markets erratic growth and declines, low numbers of total sales, and limited availability of data these numbers may be subject to revision over 2015. Furthermore, even with the double digit growth in new light vehicle sales through to 2019, we believe that, by 2019, only 7,641 new light vehicles will be sold in the country annually. When compared with a population of some 49.3mn, it is clear that new cars will remain unaffordable to the vast majority of Tanzanians for many years. Instead, used cars will continue to be the more significant market.

In light of this, potential gains for investors are weighted towards the commercial vehicle (CV) markets. While household demand for new cars will remain small, we believe CV demand will accelerate quicker over our five year forecast period to 2019 owing to the growth of Tanzania's mining and infrastructure sectors, which utilise CVs intensively. Our Infrastructure team remain bullish on Tanzania's infrastructure industry with growth in the industry likely to increase demand for commercial vehicles used in the industry. Investments into road and transport infrastructure as well as those into the country's nascent natural gas and power sectors will boost demand for heavy and light goods vehicles. To highlight the strong impact these sectors will have on CV demand, our Infrastructure team points out that transport and utilities infrastructure investments make up USD30.9bn of theUSD33.9bn of planned, financed or under infrastructure projects in BMI's Key Project's database for Tanzania.

Looking more long-term, there are some reasons for...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
10
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Sales
16
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2019)
16
Trade
20
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Economic Analysis
23
Table: Economic Activity (Tanzania 2010-2019)
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk/Reward Index
28
Outperformers Are Production Hubs
28
Policy Not Always Positive
29
Weak Currency A Barrier To Improvement
30
Competitive Landscape
31
Table: National Fleet Size Data - Tanzania 2010-2018
31
Dealerships
34
Motorcycles
36
Company Profile
38
Volvo
38
Regional Overview
40
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Autos Production Investment
40
Kenya Builds On Hub Advantage
40
Slowly But Surely For Cameroon
41
Nigerian Policy Keeps Investment Coming In
41
Global Industry Overview
43
1
43
2
44
3
45
4
46
Demographic Forecast
48
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Tanzania 1990-2025)
49
Table: Key Population Ratios (Tanzania 1990-2025)
49
Table: Urban/Rural Population And Life Expectancy (Tanzania 1990-2025)
50
Table: Population By Age Group (Tanzania 1990-2025)
50
Table: Population By Age Group % (Tanzania 1990-2025)
51
Methodology
53
Industry Forecasts
53
Sector-Specific Methodology
54
Sources
54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
55
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Tanzania Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Tanzania Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Tanzania.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Tanzanian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Tanzanian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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