Tanzania Country Risk Report

Published 23 June 2015 | Quarterly

  • 52 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Tanzania Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Uncertainty will characterise Tanzania's political climate over the coming months as the general election on October 25 approaches. We believe key investment decisions - particularly in the energy sector - are likely to be delayed until the dust from the election has settled and policy direction becomes clearer.

  • Economic growth in Tanzania will soften in 2015 as October's general elections and continued policy uncertainty in the energy sector weigh on investment. We are forecasting real GDP to expand by 6.4% in 2015 compared to 6.9% in 2014.

  • Tanzania will undergo a modest improvement in its external position over the next two years as lower oil prices help to reduce the country's hefty imported fuel bill. Despite this short term adjustment, high import demand and sluggish growth in exports will see the current account balance remain deep in red.

Major Forecast Changes

  • No major forecast changes.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • A major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Tanzania 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 8.2 6.9 6.4 6.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 44.2 48.9 49.7 52.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.6 4.8 4.9 6.0
Exchange rate TZS/USD, eop 1,590.00 1,733.00 1,930.00 2,007.20
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.6 -2.8 -4.1 -3.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.6 -9.7 -8.7 -8.7

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Competitive Election Campaign Will Keep Investors On Sidelines
8
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Political Risk Factors Will Dent Growth In 2015
14
TABLE: Economic Activity
14
Balance Of Payments
16
Falling Fuel Bill To Offset Impact Of Aid Hiatus
16
TABLE: Current Account
16
Monetary Policy
17
Low Oil Prices To Keep Inflation Anchored
17
TABLE: Monetary Policy
18
Regional Banking
19
East African Banks Most Attractive
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Tanzanian Economy To 2024
21
Robust Growth Forecast On Gas Investment
21
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: Operational Risk
26
Availability Of Labour
28
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa - Availability Of Labour Risk
28
Crime Risk
31
TABLe: Crime Statistics
32
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa - Crime Risk
33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Automotives
37
TABLE: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts
38
Other Key Sectors
43
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
43
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
44
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
45
Global Outlook
45
Deflationary Pressure
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
47

The Tanzania Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Tanzania and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Tanzania's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of The Tanzania's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise The Tanzania's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Tanzania, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Tanzania Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Tanzanian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Tanzania through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Tanzania Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for The Tanzania and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on The Tanzania, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in The Tanzania over the next 5-years?

BMI's The Tanzania country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Tanzanian Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing The Tanzania.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for The Tanzania's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark The Tanzania's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for The Tanzania, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of The Tanzania's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express