Tanzania Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Tanzania Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • A broad improvement in macroeconomic conditions will see real GDP growth in Tanzania accelerate in 2016. Following an estimated 6.0% expansion in 2015, we forecast growth of 6.5% this year as the economy benefits from improved currency stability, a post-election bounce in investment and low oil prices.

  • The Tanzanian shilling (TZS) will experience a much less rapid pace of depreciation in 2016 than in 2015 as it benefits from a weaker US dollar, positive balance of payments dynamics and improved local sentiment. Having depreciated by an average of 22.4% against the dollar last year, we forecast average depreciation in 2016 of just below 8.0%.

  • Since being sworn in almost three months ago, new Tanzanian President John Magufuli has made impressive and publicly-visible efforts aimed at tackling corruption and government waste, reinforcing his reputation as a hard-working technocrat. While the Magufuli presidency is still in its infancy, the early signs are encouraging and, if sustained, bode well for the country's relationship with its donor partners following a fractious 18 month period .

Key Risks

  • A major risk to our economic outlook comes from the weather. Poor rains would not only exacerbate tight food supplies (food price inflation was the major driver of rapidly rising headline inflation in 2011) but would also once again hamper hydroelectricity production, raising costs for businesses and, by extension, consumers.

  • Political risk is set to increase over the near term, which could provide a sterner examination of Magufuli's leadership credentials. The controversial decision to annul and re-run the Zanzibar election, now scheduled for March 20, has stoked popular discontent on the semi-autonomous island, and it promises to be a tense few months.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 7.0 6.0 6.5 6.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 47.8 43.3 45.5 49.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.8 6.5 6.5 6.5
Exchange rate TZS/USD, eop 1,733.00 2,149.33 2,246.05 2,358.35
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.8 -4.3 -3.5 -3.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.2 -8.1 -7.0 -7.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Accelerating In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Monetary Policy
10
External Risks Will Keep Monetary Conditions Tight Through H116
10
Monetary Policy Framework
11
Currency Forecast
12
TZS: Conditions More Supportive In 2016
12
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
12
Regional Fiscal
14
The Future Of African Bond Issuance
14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Tanzanian Economy To 2025
17
High Growth Hinges On Gas Investment
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Zanzibar Poll Re-Run Could Shorten Magufuli Honeymoon
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Trade Procedures And Governance
29
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
29
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
29
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
30
Vulnerability To Crime
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Macro Outlook
35
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
35
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
35
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
36
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
36
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
37
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
39

Assess your risk exposure in Tanzania with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Tanzania with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report