Tanzania Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Tanzania Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Tanzania Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Tanzania's growth prospects are bright in 2016 and 2017, supported by robust infrastructure investment and stronger household spending. While increased taxes on the tourism and telecoms sectors will offer some headwinds, we nevertheless single out Tanzania as a growth outperformer in the next two years.

  • Tanzania's current account deficit will widen as fuel prices rise and major infrastructure projects ramp up, prompting a sharp increase in capital goods imports. However, robust investment will keep Tanzania's external position strong.

  • A wide-reaching programme of infrastructure development will keep Tanzania's fiscal balance in deficit for the next decade. However, authorities are making long-term efforts to broaden the tax base and gas production will come online in 2020, bolstering the outlook for revenue collection.

Key Risks

  • The Magufuli government's implementation of tax and regulatory reform has been too rapid and forceful for many businesses. If sustained, the pattern of sudden policy shifts could damage Tanzania's attractiveness for many businesses. Meanwhile, despite the president's popularity, the government's crackdown on opposition will cause short-term political and social instability.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, TBoS, BoT, UN
Nominal GDP, USDbn 47.9 44.6 44.5 47.1
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.8 6.8 5.0 6.0
Exchange rate TZS/USD, eop 1,733.00 2,149.33 2,229.93 2,341.43
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.7 -3.1 -4.6 -4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.5 -7.4 -8.1 -8.3
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Retail And Construction Will Drive Economic Outperformance
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Outlook On External Position
10
Monetary Policy
12
Accelerating Inflation Will Forestall Monetary Loosening
12
Monetary Policy Framework
13
Currency Forecast
14
TZS: Set To Resume Deflationary Trend In H2
14
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Tanzanian Economy To 2025
17
Robust Growth Hinges On Gas Investment
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Magufuli Premiership A Positive For Economy
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long Term Political Outlook
23
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: TOP 5 TRADE PARTNERS - PRODUCT IMPORTS (2010- 2014), USDMN
32
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
36
Availability Of Labour
38
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
39
TABLE: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
41
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
Summer Of Risk
43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
47

Assess your risk exposure in Tanzania with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Tanzania with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report