Tanzania Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Tanzania Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Tanzania's real GDP growth will far outstrip its Sub-Saharan African counterparts in 2016 and 2017. While a pull-back in international aid will temper growth modestly, the country will benefit from strong investment and low inflation.

  • We expect Tanzania's monetary policy to remain tight in 2016, in an effort to cool credit growth and keep inflation near the target rate of 5.0%. Moreover, in 2017, with economic growth set to remain relatively robust and inflationary pressures poised to reaccelerate, we see little scope for loosening.

  • Tanzanian President John Magufuli's reforming policies and anti-graft measures will support economic growth over the coming years. A strong mandate will enable him to continue these policies, although increasing resistance from senior politicians and civil servants will slow the reform momentum.

Key Risks

  • Tanzania runs a consistently negative net international investment position, with net liabilities having grown to 67.2% from 40.0% of GDP in 2010. This is largely due to the stock of inward FDI and government debt liabilities from international financial institutions. We expect inward FDI flows to increase over the next few years, particularly in the energy sector due to the joint oil pipeline project with Uganda and a number of onshore natural gas discoveries. Portfolio investment is currently insignificant as Tanzania's capital markets lack depth. However, we expect this to represent more of the net investment deficit in the years to come as the country steps up its Eurobond issuance for development projects, and market capitalisation in Tanzania's companies grows.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, TBoS, BoT, UN
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.7
Nominal GDP, USDbn 47.8 43.8 46.2 50.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.8 6.8 4.3 7.7
Exchange rate TZS/USD, eop 1,733.00 2,149.33 2,246.05 2,358.35
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.8 -4.2 -3.5 -3.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.5 -7.6 -6.7 -6.1
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Retail And Construction Will Drive Economic Outperformance
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Outlook On External Position
10
Monetary Policy
12
Accelerating Inflation Will Forestall Monetary Loosening
12
Monetary Policy Framework
13
Currency Forecast
14
TZS: Set To Resume Deflationary Trend In H2
14
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
14
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Tanzanian Economy To 2025
17
Robust Growth Hinges On Gas Investment
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Magufuli Premiership A Positive For Economy
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long Term Political Outlook
23
Corruption And Reliance On Foreign Money High On The Agenda
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: TOP 5 TRADE PARTNERS - PRODUCT IMPORTS (2010- 2014), USDMN
32
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
34
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
36
Availability Of Labour
38
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
39
TABLE: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
41
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
43
Global Macro Outlook
43
Summer Of Risk
43
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
44
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
45
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
47

Assess your risk exposure in Tanzania with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Tanzania with confidence.

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