Tanzania Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Tanzania Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Tanzania's gold sector will remain pressured by low gold prices, which will discourage production growth over coming years. Beyond our forecast period to 20 202 , the country's mining sector could diversify as various miners are looking to invest in the country's nickel, coal and uranium resources.

Tanzania - Mining Industry Value
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UN Data, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.86 0.79 0.75 0.74 0.77 0.80 0.82
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -7.36 -7.66 -5.34 -1.56 3.95 3.59 3.43

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Tanzania holds vast deposits of coal, cobalt, copper, diamonds, gold, nickel, silver and uranium. Despite these positive aspects, we forecast the country's mining sector growth will decline over 2016-2020. In our view, weak gold prices will halt gold production growth and delay or halt new projects from coming online altogether. We expect Tanzania's mining industry value to decline from USD0.86bn in 2014 to USD0.82bn by 2020.

  • Tanzania, currently Africa's fourth-largest gold producer, will see modest growth in output due to mine closures and a limited number of projects in the pipeline. Ongoing labour unrest, illegal mining, power shortages and gold price weakness will also temper the sector's production outlook. Acacia Mining (formerly African Barrick Gold) and Resolute Mining have ceased production at two mines due to depleted reserves. Acacia Mining and AngloGold Ashanti have warned about impending job cuts in the north of the country. Given that Tanzania relies upon gold for over 40.0% of its exports, the downturn in the sector is likely to have serious repercussions for the economy as a whole.

  • Despite this, a number of new projects will ensure the country's production growth remains positive over the coming quarters. For instance, CATA Mining's Mara gold mine, the second largest project in the region, following Acacia Mining's North Mara gold mine, is expected to begin production in Q316. The miner has invested over USD54mn to develop the project. Further, Shanta Gold recorded gold production of 24,522 ounces (koz) at its New Luika gold mine in Tanzania in Q315. The record production was benefited from a 33% q-o-q improvement in gold ore grade efficiencies and a 25% increase in tons milled during the quarter.

  • Shanta Gold has laid out a five-year mine plan for its New Luika mine in Tanzania. The new mine plan, which will include underground mining and an ongoing surface mining and tailings recovery project, estimates an average production of 84koz annually over the next five years. An underground extension to the mine will produce 310koz and add USD72mn to the project value. The underground development is estimated to have an up-front cost of USD38mn. Under the plan, the open pit will run until 2018. New Luika is expected to produce a total of 443koz of gold during the 2016-2022 period, of which 310,000oz will be from underground, 133koz from open pit and 19koz from the tailings project.

Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
Commodities Mine Mine Type Primary Company Secondary Company Notes
na = not available. Source: Company announcements, BMI
Coal - Thermal Shikula Open Pit Syrah Resources Ltd (100%) na The project is under exploration stage.
Copper Ibaga Open Pit Liontown Resources (100%) na Project is currently in exploration stage which shows high grades of Copper and Zinc products, Drilling to start in 2014.
Coal - Thermal Rukwa na Kibo Mining na Resources: 109 Mt (71.33 Mt Indicated/38.05 Mt Inferred).
Iron Ore Liganga na NDC Sichuan Hongda July 2013 - The exploration findings have discovered over 364mnt of coal at the project. The project is expected to be completed by 2018.
Coal - Thermal Mchuchuma na NDC Sichuan Hongda 2013 - The project involves 3mnt per annum coal mine and is expected to be completed by 2017; July 2013 - The exploration findings have discovered over 219mnt of iron ore deposits.
Gold Chunya na Shanta na Gold: 1.3moz resources. Production start date remains uncertain.
BMI Industry View
7
Table: Tanzania - Mining Industry Value
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
7
Table: Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Modest Growth Ahead
11
Latest Developments
11
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2014-2020)
11
Structural Trends
12
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
14
Tanzania Risk Reward Index
14
Rewards
14
Industry Rewards
14
Country Rewards
14
Risks
14
Industry Risks
14
Country Risks
14
Risk/Reward Index
15
Key Takeaways
15
Latest Revisions
16
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
18
Regulatory Development
19
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
20
Commodities Forecast
24
Commodities Outlook
24
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
24
Competitive Landscape
25
Key Players
25
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies
26
Company Profile
27
Barrick Gold - Q2 2016
27
Company Strategy
28
Latest Results
29
Table: Barrick Gold - Key Financial Data
30
Address Details
31
Regional Overview
32
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
37
Methodology
39
Industry Forecast Methodology
39
Sources
40
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
41
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
42

The Tanzania Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Tanzania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Tanzania.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.