BMI View: Despite abundant mineral wealth, Tanzania will remain one of the smaller African mining sectors we monitor and will continue to occupy one of the bottom places in our African Mining Risk/Reward Index. The country's gold mining sector is the fourth largest in Africa, and while growing, its expansion continues to be constrained by an adverse political and regulatory climate. A major positive for the sector, however, is the continued rise in global gold prices, having fallen to a five-year low in December 2015.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UN Data, BMI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||0.86||0.84||0.83||0.83||0.83||0.83||0.84|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-7.36||-2.52||-0.74||0.18||-0.46||-0.41||1.70|
|Commodities||Mine||Mine Type||Primary Company||Secondary Company||Notes|
|na = not available. Source: Company announcements, BMI|
|Coal - Thermal||Shikula||Open Pit||Syrah Resources Ltd (100%)||na||The project is under exploration stage.|
|Copper||Ibaga||Open Pit||Liontown Resources (100%)||na||Project is currently in exploration stage which shows high grades of copper and zinc products, drilling to start in 2014.|
|Coal - Thermal||Rukwa||na||Kibo Mining||na||Resources: 109 Mt (71.33 Mt Indicated/38.05 Mt Inferred).|
|Iron Ore||Liganga||na||NDC||Sichuan Hongda||July 2013 - The exploration findings have discovered over 364mnt of coal at the project. The project is expected to be completed by 2018.|
|Coal - Thermal||Mchuchuma||na||NDC||Sichuan Hongda||2013 - The project involves 3mnt per annum coal mine and is expected to be completed by 2017; July 2013 - The exploration findings have discovered over 219mnt of iron ore deposits.|
|Gold||Chunya||na||Shanta||na||Gold: 1.3moz resources. Production start date remains uncertain.|
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Despite boasting considerable mineral resources, Tanzania's mining sector faces persistent challenges through the forecast period, which will limit the expansion of the industry. Tanzania is Africa's fourth largest gold producer. However, despite an improving global gold price outlook, we expect the country's overall output to remain volatile throughout the forecast period. Key challenges for overseas miners include a lack of sufficient mining infrastructure, as well as ongoing labour unrest and the government's increasingly strict stance towards foreign operators through the introduction of new laws and regulations. These factors mean that Tanzania's overall gold production volumes will grow only marginally during 2017-2020 in absolute terms.
In September 2016, the government announced the implementation of the Minimum Shareholding and Public Offering Regulations Act, which requires mining companies holding special licences to list at least 30% of their shares on the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange. The decision is aimed at increasing local involvement and ownership of the mining sector, as well as encouraging the growth of public-private partnerships. Companies have two years to comply with the regulations or face having their licence revoked.
However, we also note a series of positive developments in the gold mining sector. These include positive earnings and production forecasts by Tanzania's largest gold producer, UK-listed Acacia Mining, which claims on course to reach its full-year production forecast of 780,000 tonnes. We also note positive production announcements by CATA Mining and Shanta Gold in recent months. These developments should partly mitigate the impact of an adverse political and regulatory climate, with Tanzania's total gold production forecast to increase from 1.59mn carats (mnct) in 2017 to 1.63mnct by the end of the forecast period in 2020.
The Tanzania Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Tanzania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Tanzania.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.