Tanzania Mining Report

Published 22 June 2015

  • 67 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Tanzania Mining Report

BMI View: Tanzania's mining sector growth will contract due to weak global mineral prices, which will discourage production growth over coming years. Beyond our forecast period to 2019, the country's mining sector could diversify as various miners are looking to invest in the country's nickel, coal and uranium resources.

Although Tanzania holds vast deposits of coal, cobalt, copper, diamonds, gold, nickel, silver and uranium, we forecast the country's mining sector will contract over 2015-2019. Weak gold prices will halt gold production growth and delay or halt new projects from coming online altogether. Despite this, the Tanzania's mining industry will remain relatively significant in regional terms as the country is currently Africa's fourth-largest producer of gold and continues to produce growing numbers of diamonds. In the longer term coal, nickel, and uranium production will likely drive renewed growth in Tanzania's mining sector. We forecast Tanzania's mining industry value to decline from USD0.80bn in 2015 to USD0.71bn in 2019. This is an average contraction of 3.6% year-on-year over 2015-2019, significantly lower than the average growth of 4.2% y-o-y over 2010-2014.

Growth To Contract
Tanzania: Mining Industry Value (bn) & Growth y-o-y (%)

Although Tanzania's mining industry is relatively small in terms of value, it is responsible for a significant share of the country's export revenue. Major foreign investors in Tanzania's mining sector include Acacia Mining, (formerly African Barrick Gold) and AngloGold Ashanti. However, Tanzania's mining sector will remain relatively uncompetitive due to the country's high mining taxes and royalties. The mining code, updated in 2010 at the height of the commodities price boom, is relatively more burdensome than the mining codes of the bulk of other African countries. As such, Tanzania is likely to find itself at a competitive disadvantage as mining companies look to slash capital expenditure in an era of...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Tanzania - Gold: Slow But Steady Growth Ahead
12
Headwinds Lie Ahead
13
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2014-2019)
14
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
15
Tanzania Risk Reward Index
15
Rewards
15
Industry Rewards
15
Country Rewards
15
Risks
16
Industry Risks
16
Country Risks
16
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Tanzania 2014-2019)
17
Africa Risk/Reward Index
17
High Risks, Large Rewards
17
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
20
Regulatory Development
21
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
22
Commodities Forecast
26
Commodity Strategy
26
Ferrous Metals
26
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
26
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
28
Non-Ferrous Metals
31
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
31
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
33
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
34
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
35
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
36
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
38
Competitive Landscape
39
Key Players
39
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies
40
Company Profile
41
Barrick Gold
41
Company Strategy
43
Latest Results
45
Financial Data
45
Table: Key Financial Data
45
Address Details
46
Regional Overview
47
Regional Overview - The Four Key Themes For Africa Mining
47
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright
47
West Africa: Continued Price Weakness To Curb Growth
48
Regulatory Environment To Threaten Growth
50
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
51
Global Industry Overview
53
Global Overview
53
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3
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4
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5
61
Methodology
63
Industry Forecast Methodology
63
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Tanzania Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Tanzania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Tanzania.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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