Tanzania Mining Report

Published 22 June 2015

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Tanzania Mining Report

BMI View: Tanzania's mining sector growth will contract due to weak global mineral prices, which will discourage production growth over coming years. Beyond our forecast period to 2019, the country's mining sector could diversify as various miners are looking to invest in the country's nickel, coal and uranium resources.

Although Tanzania holds vast deposits of coal, cobalt, copper, diamonds, gold, nickel, silver and uranium, we forecast the country's mining sector will contract over 2015-2019. Weak gold prices will halt gold production growth and delay or halt new projects from coming online altogether. Despite this, the Tanzania's mining industry will remain relatively significant in regional terms as the country is currently Africa's fourth-largest producer of gold and continues to produce growing numbers of diamonds. In the longer term coal, nickel, and uranium production will likely drive renewed growth in Tanzania's mining sector. We forecast Tanzania's mining industry value to decline from USD0.80bn in 2015 to USD0.71bn in 2019. This is an average contraction of 3.6% year-on-year over 2015-2019, significantly lower than the average growth of 4.2% y-o-y over 2010-2014.

Growth To Contract
Tanzania: Mining Industry Value (bn) & Growth y-o-y (%)

Although Tanzania's mining industry is relatively small in terms of value, it is responsible for a significant share of the country's export revenue. Major foreign investors in Tanzania's mining sector include Acacia Mining, (formerly African Barrick Gold) and AngloGold Ashanti. However, Tanzania's mining sector will remain relatively uncompetitive due to the country's high mining taxes and royalties. The mining code, updated in 2010 at the height of the commodities price boom, is relatively more burdensome than the mining codes of the bulk of other African countries. As such, Tanzania is likely to find itself at a competitive disadvantage as mining companies look to slash capital expenditure in an era of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Tanzania - Key Mining Projects
8
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Gold: Slow But Steady Growth Ahead
11
Structural Headwinds Remain
12
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Tanzania 2011-2019)
13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
14
Tanzania Risk Reward Index
14
Rewards
14
Industry Rewards
14
Country Rewards
14
Risks
15
Industry Risks
15
Country Risks
15
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Tanzania 2011-2019)
16
Africa Risk/Reward Index
16
High Risks, Large Rewards
16
African Countries Trend Lower
17
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
18
Regulatory Development
19
Tax Regime
20
Corruption Concerns To Continue
21
Table: Political Overview
22
Table: Africa - Regulatory Outlook
23
Commodities Forecast
24
Commodity Strategy
24
Ferrous Metals
24
Non-Ferrous Metals
28
Aluminium: Abating Tightness To Cap Prices
28
Copper: Continued Weakness Ahead
29
Lead: Prices To Firm As Year Progresses
30
Nickel: Prices Will Only Rise Gradually
31
Tin: Waiting On A Deficit
32
Zinc: Modest Price Growth On Tighter Supply But Looser Demand
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
35
Competitive Landscape
36
Key Players
36
Table: Tanzania - Main Mining Companies
37
Company Profile
38
Barrick Gold
38
Company Strategy
39
Latest Results
41
Financial Data
41
Table: Barrick - Key Financial Data
41
Address Details
42
Regional Overview
43
Regional Overview - Four Key Themes For 2015: Africa Mining
43
Gold To Retreat; Except In The DRC
43
West African Iron Ore On The Rocks
44
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
45
Mining To Remain A Crucial Contributor To African GDP
46
Global Industry Overview
48
Global Overview
48
2
51
3
52
5
56
Methodology
58
Industry Forecast Methodology
58
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Tanzania Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Tanzania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Tanzania.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Tanzania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Tanzania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Tanzania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc