We downgrade our 2015 auto sales forecast for Thailand, and expect domestic vehicle sales to grow marginally by 1.4% to 894,144 units, down from 4.3% previously. The forecast downgrade is largely owing to weaker economic outlook due to external headwinds, which we believe will have a knock on impact on consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, our forecast still reflects a slow recovery since the sharp 33.7% decline in vehicle sales registered in 2014, as we see positive impacts of a more stable political and business environment.
Over the coming months, we expect a weaker economic growth outlook to weigh on consumer sentiment, putting a cap on auto demand. Thailand's fairly large exposure to China, with the latter accounting for 11% of Thai outbound shipments in 2014 means that the gradual slowdown of its trading partner will hamper Thailand's incipient economic growth recovery.
That said, our forecast for Thailand's auto sector still reflects a soft recovery in 2015. This is due to two factors which we believe will prop up vehicle demand over the coming quarters. Firstly, a marked improvement in Thailand's political and social landscape following the military coup has provided a more stable business environment, lifting consumer confidence. In addition, our Country Risk team also expect the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to cut rates by a further 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% in 2015, which will help to lower credit costs for consumers and businesses.
At the same time, we are maintaining our 2015 auto production growth forecast of 4.2% to 1,958,517 units due to softer demand in some South East Asia (SEA) countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia ( see 'Headwinds Will Temper Autos Recovery', January 27), which will counterbalance the more positive domestic story. The SEA region is an important market for Thai auto exports, which grew 1.4% in 2014 to hit 1,128,102 units. Furthermore, given that Thai vehicle exports accounted for 60.0% of total domestic auto production in 2014,...
The Thailand Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Thailand Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Thailand.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.