Thailand Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
×

Sign up to download the Thailand Country Risk Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Thailand Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • The Thai military's extended stay in power until at least 2017 following the rejection of the draft constitution will allow for an acceleration of its efforts to remove former premier Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006) and his allies from domestic politics, risking a further deepening of the political divide in the country and a rapid regression towards Myanmar-style authoritarianism.

  • Government efforts to shore up the Thai economy and weak crude oil prices should help to support the ongoing economic recovery. That said, export headwinds will act as a drag. As such, we forecast Thailand's real GDP growth to come in at 3.3% in 2016, marking only a marginal increase from a forecasted 3.2% in 2015.

  • While the Thai government will increase spending in 2016 to accelerate the ongoing economic recovery, gradually improving economic conditions will bode well for fiscal revenue. Consequently, we forecast Thailand's fiscal deficit to come in at 2.1% of GDP in 2016, unchanged from a forecasted 2.1% in 2015. Public debt will remain manageable, while the issuance of longer term bonds in 2016 will likely result in a steepening of the yield curve.

  • With new Thai central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob signalling that fiscal measures will take the lead in sustaining the ongoing economic recovery, we expect monetary policy to take a back seat, and are forecasting the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.50% over the course of 2016. That said, the central bank technically has room to ease monetary policy further should the economic picture worsen, given that inflation is likely to remain relatively muted.

  • While external headwinds pose a threat to the Thai baht, improving valuations, a large current account surplus, positive real rates, and strong international reserves should provide fundamental support to the currency. As such, we are neutral towards the Thai baht, and are forecasting the unit to average USD36.50/USD in 2016, unchanged from our forecasted USD36.50/USD in 2015. Beyond 2016, we also expect the Thai baht to strengthen gradually towards THB34.11/USD by 2024.

  • Major Forecast Changes

  • We downgraded our 2016 and 2017 real GDP growth forecast to 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively, from 4.1% previously.

  • We revised higher Thailand's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP from 1.7% to 2.1% in 2016.

  • We revised lower our 2016 average inflation forecast to 1.5%, from 2.5% previously.

  • We forecast the Thai baht to average THB36.50/USD in 2016, from THB36.72/USD previously.

Key Risk To Outlook

  • A key downside risk could come from renewed political instability. The military has been successful in quelling protest activity since it assumed power, but any attempt to install a civilian government against the wishes of the 'Red Shirts' could result in a backlash.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Thailand 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.8 0.9 3.2 3.3
Nominal GDP, USDbn 420.2 404.9 390.6 387.3
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 1.7 0.6 -0.7 2.5
Exchange rate THB/USD, eop 32.71 32.91 36.50 36.50
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.2 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1
Current account balance, % of GDP -0.6 3.5 4.2 4.5
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Bangkok Bomb Blast Adds To Economic Woes
8
TABLE: Political Overvie w
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Greater Political Turbulence Ahead, As Royal Succession Looms
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Mounting Headwinds Warrant A Growth Forecast Downgrade
14
tABLE: Economic Acti vity
14
Fiscal Policy
15
Fiscal Profile To Remain Manageable Despite Latest Stimulus
15
TABLE: Fiscal Policy
16
Monetary Policy
17
Rate Cuts Still In Sight Amid Poor Export Performances
17
TABLE: Moneta ry Policy
18
Balance Of Payments
19
Further Baht Weakness In Sight
19
TABLE: CURR ENCY FOR ECAST
19
TABLE: Current Acc ount
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Thai Economy To 2024
23
Facing Multiple Growth Headwinds
23
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: Operational Risk
28
Market Size And Utilities
29
TABLE: Asia - Market Size And Utilities
30
International Security Risk
33
TABLE: Asia - Interstate Security Risk
33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
37
TABLE: Pharmaceutical Sales, Hist orical Data & Forecasts
38
TABLE: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data & Forecasts
39
Telecommunications
40
TABLE: Telec oms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
41
Other Key Sectors
51
Table: Defence & Security Sect or Key Indicators
51
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
51
Table: Food & Drink Sector Key Indicators
51
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicat ors
52
Table: Oil & Gas Sect or Key Indicat ors
52
Table: Freight Key Indicators
52
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
53
Global Macro Outlook
53
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
53
Table: Global Assumptions
53
Table: Developed States , Real GDP Growth, %
54
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
54
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
55

Assess your risk exposure in Thailand with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Thailand with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report