BMI View: Thailand's petrochemicals industry is expanding downstream capacities , while diversifying feedstocks, in order to shore up margins and add value to output. However, political risks will remain crucial in 2016 as the country approaches election time, which brings with it potential flashpoints that could revive the turmoil of 2014.
Thailand will see growth in output in 2016 due to the ramping up of petrochemicals capacities in 2015, including 250,000tpa of phenol, 15,000tpa of acetone. 90,000tpa of TOC Glycol, 115,000tpa paraxylene, 115,000tpa benzene and 20,000tpa orthoxylene. Meanwhile, Thai crackers will raise naphtha as a proportion of their feed in order to capitalise on lower naphtha costs as well as hedging against the impact of depleting gas resources.
Further expansions are expected in coming years. In the polymer segment, a 400,000tpa linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) expansion is due to come onstream in 2018 and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) production capacity will rise by 60,000tpa by 2016. Plans for a USD1bn polyurethane (PU) complex in Rayong include capacities of 200,000tpa propylene oxide and 130,000tpa polyether polyols.
We forecast Thailand's construction sector to register strong growth of 14.8% in 2015, while a more uncertain political outlook will weigh on growth beyond 2016. This will benefit extruded products and insulation, particularly in the PVC segment which is highly reliant on the production of window frames, doors and sheeting used in construction.
Thailand's highly integrated automotive supply sector is crucial for the domestic industrial consumption of moulded plastic fittings and parts as well as synthetic rubber used in tyres, trimmings, parts and insulation. Following a massive decline in automotive output in 2014, we envisage a slow but steady recovery with production unlikely to return to the previous peak until the end of our forecast period.
In BMI's Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index, Thailand scores 68 out of 100, up 0.3 points on the previous quarter due to a revision in its market risk score. This was brought about by an improvement in its end-market scenario and moves to diversify feedstock in order to respond to the lower price of naphtha and declining local ethane availability. However, the country retains its sixth place, 1.1 points behind Taiwan and 1.9 points ahead of Malaysia.
The Thailand Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Thailand Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Thai petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
- Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global & Regional Market Overview
Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.
Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:
Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene
Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.
The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.