BMI View: Multinational drugmakers will continue to face a difficult business environment in Thailand. Designated as a 'Priority Watch List Country' for PhRMA's Special 301 submission for 2016, key issues highlighted in 2015 remain unaddressed. This includes low levels of intellectual property protection as well as a challenging procurement process that favours the Government Procurement Organization. Cost containment pressures will also become more acute as authorities seek to curb rising healthcare spending.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: THB152bnbn (USD4.4bn) in 2015 to THB160bn (USD4.5bn) in 2016; +5.3% in local currency terms and +1.9% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: THB614bn (USD17.9bn) in 2015 to THB655bn (USD18.5bn) in 2016: +6.7% in local currency and +-3.3% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.480||4.465||4.548||4.832||5.119||5.445||5.786|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.11||1.13||1.15||1.14||1.13||1.12||1.11|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||25.3||24.9||24.6||24.2||24.0||23.7||23.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||17.712||17.940||18.524||19.933||21.365||22.968||24.637|
In Q216, Thailand remains ranked roughly in the lower half of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index table that assesses the attractiveness of the 19 countries in the Asia Pacific region. This is because while Thailand remains relatively attractive to pharmaceutical investors with its growing pharmaceutical sector, its overall score is dragged down by the risks, including low levels of patent protection that is imposed on drugmakers. As such it scores 16.1 out of a total of 35 on its risk score, significantly below the regional average of 19.3.
In March 2016, local news sources note that Thailand Food and Drug Administration is now reviewing studies for Sanofi's dengue vaccine, which is expected to be available in the country by the middle of the year.
As of January 2016, Thailand's Department of Intellectual Property is in the process of considering proposed amendments to the Patent Act, with a focus on reducing the long period of pendency for patent registration and improved patentability.
That same month, Thailand confirmed its second case of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) virus. This patient was an Omani man travelling to the country to seek medical treatment.
BMI Economic View
Government efforts to shore up the Thai economy and weak crude oil prices should help to support the ongoing economic recovery. That said, export headwinds will act as a drag. As such, we forecast Thailand's real GDP growth to come in at 3.3% in 2016, marking only a marginal increase from a forecast 3.2% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The Thai military's extended stay in power until at least 2017 following the rejection of the draft constitution will allow for an acceleration of its efforts to remove former premier Thaksin Shinawatra (2001-2006) and his allies from domestic politics, risking a further deepening of the political divide in the country and a rapid regression towards Myanmar-style authoritarianism.
The Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Thailand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.