BMI View: Thailand's private healthcare providers will be well positioned for growth. Supporting this trajectory is the country's popularity as a medical tourism destination , augmenting domestic demand for medical services. Private hospitals also have the opportunity to expand into frontier markets in Indo c hina - such as Myanmar and Vietnam. This will, in turn, shape the sales channels for pharmaceutical firms with high-value pharmaceuticals. Political instability is a pertinent risk to this growth outlook, especially as it could deter medical tourists to the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: THB152.9bn (USD4.5bn) in 2015 to THB161.0bn (USD4.6bn) in 2016; +5.3% in local currency terms and +1.9% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: THB841.2bn (USD24.6bn) in 2015 to THB892.3bn (USD25.2bn) in 2016: +6.1% in local currency and +2.6% in US dollar terms. Absolute figures revised up after inclusion of new WHO data.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.480||4.460||4.550||4.830||5.120||5.450||5.790|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.11||1.13||1.15||1.14||1.13||1.12||1.11|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||18.4||18.2||18.0||17.9||17.8||17.7||17.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||24.410||24.560||25.210||26.960||28.720||30.700||32.740|
In Q316, Thailand remains in the lower half of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index table that assesses the attractiveness of 19 countries in the Asia Pacific region, with a score of 49.3 out of 100. While Thailand offers relatively attractive revenue-earning opportunities in a regional-comparison for multinational investors, increasing pharmaceutical expenditure is somewhat overshadowed by the prevalent risks in the country including low levels of patent protection.
In April 2016, Disease Control Department Director Amnuay Gajeena noted that Thailand was considering the registration request for Sanofi's Dengvaxia dengue vaccine. According to Amnuay, the effectiveness of the vaccine is still under debate as a dengue vaccine needs to protect the population from all four strains of the virus.
In May 2016, members of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association in Thailand have called on the Board of Investment to provide 13-15 years of tax incentives to the sector. According to one member, the current maximum incentive of eight years of tax exemption is insufficient as it takes a long time for firms to start turning a profit.
That same month, Thailand's National Cancer Institute, the Department of Medical Services and the Government Pharmaceutical Organization formed an agreement to develop cancer drugs from herbal ingredients. According to Director-General of Medical Services Suphan Srithamma, while chemotherapy is an effective treatment, patients have turned to herbal medicines as an alternative. However, herbal treatments are not supported by proper research and development that would assure patients of the drug's effectiveness and safety.
BMI Economic View
Thailand's real GDP growth of 2.8% y-o-y in Q415 reflects the positive impact of the government's renewed infrastructure drive and the negative effects of weakening external demand. With the construction sector likely to continue to benefit from a number of major project commencements, and low oil prices having a positive impact on the country's terms of trade, we forecast real GDP growth to pick up slightly to 3.0% in 2016, from 2.8% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The military junta has been successful in returning Thailand to political stability following the 2014 coup, but we are not yet willing to upgrade the country's low Political Risk Index score as fundamental divisions between the 'red shirts' and the 'yellow shirts' remain, and the impending royal succession has the potential to trigger renewed unrest.
The Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Thailand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.