BMI View: Reforms to Thailand's healthcare system will influence the commercial opportunities for multinational drugmakers. While a merger of all three schemes remains difficult, incremental reforms in that direction will be forthcoming and necessary for Thailand to address inequalities in healthcare outcomes. Pressures to ensure the sustainability of the country's healthcare programmes have also not abated. This accentuates the threat of cost containment for drugmakers, which will be heightened should Thailand pursue the target - set by the Committee on Resource Mobilisation for Sustainable Universal Health Coverage - of keeping total health spending less than 5% of GDP by 2022.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: THB153bn (USD4.5bn) in 2015 to THB161bn (USD4.6bn) in 2016; +5.3% in local currency terms and +1.9% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: THB841bn (USD24bn) in 2015 to THB892bn (USD25bn) in 2016: +6.1% in local currency and +2.6% in US dollar terms.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.480||4.460||4.550||4.830||5.120||5.450||5.790|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.11||1.13||1.15||1.15||1.14||1.13||1.12|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||18.4||18.2||18.0||17.9||17.8||17.7||17.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||24.410||24.560||25.210||26.960||28.720||30.700||32.740|
In Q416, Thailand remains in the lower half of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index table that assesses the attractiveness of 19 countries in the Asia Pacific region, with a score of 49.3 out of 100. While Thailand offers relatively attractive revenue-earning opportunities in a regional-comparison for multinational investors, increasing pharmaceutical expenditure is somewhat overshadowed by the prevalent risks in the country including low levels of patent protection.
In August 2016, the Thai authorities noted their aim to cut the use of antibiotics in the healthcare system. This 2017-2021 plan was approved by the cabinet and is part of the country's aim to reduce drug resistance by 50% and improve awareness of antibiotics among the public.
That same month, local news sources noted that new Zika cases have been dected in Chiang Mai, Chanthaburi, Phetchabun and Bung Kan provinces. This adds to the approximately 97 cases of Zika as of June 2016.
August also saw the Thai government assuring the public that the country's universal healthcare scheme will not abolished. According to Minister of Public Health, Piyasakol Sakolsathayathorn, there is a consensus that there must be a development of standards, payment systems and health insurance.
BMI Economic View
The BoT held interest rates at 1.50% on May 11 and we believe the easing cycle is over. Rate hikes are unlikely to be forthcoming this year or next, however, with little sign of medium-term inflationary pressures amid weakening money and credit growth.
BMI Political View
The ongoing severe drought poses another obstacle to the military government's aim of pushing through a revised constitution at the August 7 referendum. Growing discontent among rural Thais could also aggravate divisions within the royal-nationalist faction, further undermining political stability.
The Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Thailand Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Thailand, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Thailand.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.