BMI View : Supportive policy and regulatory environment, combined with the government's strong commitment to diversify the power mix, will continue to attract investment into Thailand's non-hydro renewables industry over the coming decade. Growth will be driven by particularly strong expansion in the solar segment, with notable additions coming from biomass & waste sectors. Nonetheless, we believe the progress will be too slow to achieve the country's ambitious renewables targets.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||8.790||9.650||10.350||10.920||11.600||12.260||13.010|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||25.280||9.700||7.320||5.470||6.220||5.730||6.110|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,311.9||3,632.1||3,926.4||4,191.9||4,436.6||4,681.9||4,967.9|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||13.6||9.7||8.1||6.8||5.8||5.5||6.1|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast Thailand's non-hydro renewables capacity to nearly double over the coming decade, reaching 6.4GW by 2025. The capacity mix will be dominated by biomass & waste and solar sectors, while wind is set for a relatively minor role.
In terms of generation, we forecast an average annual growth rate of 6.4% during 2016-2025, with the pace gradually decelerating towards the end of the review period. Biomass & waste is expected to retain its dominance in the generation mix, accounting for 63.3% of the total in 2025 (up from 61.6% in 2015).
In late April 2016, Thailand's Energy regulatory Commission approved a connection of 281MW solar PV capacity from 67 different facilities. This underscores out positive outlook for the solar sector, which will be driven by the country's attractive feed-in tariff programme and local manufacturing capacity. However, the lack of additional procurement plans will see solar capacity growth slow after an initial boom in 2015/2016.
In May 2016, Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology acquired a 10% stake in Thailand-based Inter Far East Energy Corp PCL's wind power division.
The Thailand Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Thailand. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Thailand, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Thailand, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Thailand Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thailand renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Thailand, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.