BMI View : Driven by s upportive pol icy and regulatory environment as well as government's commitment to diversify the country's power mix, Thailand's non-hydro renewables sector will register strong growth over the coming decade. Solar and biomass & waste sectors will see the fastest development, while wind power additions will be less notable. Despite robust growth forecasts, we hold our view that progress will be too slow to reach ambitious long-term renewables development targets set by the government.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||8.790||9.650||10.360||10.920||11.600||12.270||13.020|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||25.280||9.700||7.330||5.470||6.220||5.720||6.110|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||3,311.9||3,631.5||3,927.8||4,195.2||4,442.2||4,689.8||4,978.1|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||13.6||9.7||8.2||6.8||5.9||5.6||6.2|
Forecast and Latest Updates
This quarter we have maintained our previous forecasts for Thailand's non-hydro renewables industry. We project the renewables capacity to rise from 3.3GW in 2015 to around 6.3GW by 2025. This growth will be largely fuelled by solar and biomass & waste sectors, while additions from wind power will remain limited.
Non-hydro renewables generation will average 6.4% annual growth rate between 2016 and 2025, lifting the total generation figure to 16.3TWh by the end of our forecast period. Biomass & waste sector will remain the largest contributor, accounting for more than 60% to the total energy generation, with another 30% coming from solar by 2025.
Thailand-based Techen Technologies started production at a photovoltaic (PV) panel manufacturing plant in Thailand in October 2016. Located in the eastern province of Chonburi, the factory has entailed an investment of around USD100mn. The facility has a capacity to manufacture 300MW of photovoltaic panels a year.
In August 2016, Thai energy company Gunkul Engineering secured financing to build three wind farms in Thailand with a combined capacity 170MW. The projects include the 60MW Wayu, 60MW Greenovation and the 50MW Korat wind projects, which are scheduled to be completed by 2018 (Renews).
The Thailand Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Thailand. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Thailand, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Thailand, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Thailand Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thailand renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Thailand, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.