BMI View : We believe that supportive energy policy and regulatory environment, combined with the government's strong commitment to diversify the power mix, will continue to attract investment into the country's non-hydro renewables industry. Growth will be driven by particularly strong expansion in the solar segment, with notable additions coming from biomass and wind.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||8.902||9.880||10.616||11.231||11.956||12.667||13.432|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||27.509||10.983||7.452||5.785||6.457||5.947||6.041|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,352.4||4,812.6||5,203.6||5,488.3||5,796.6||6,101.6||6,438.2|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||46.0||10.6||8.1||5.5||5.6||5.3||5.5|
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
We maintain our positive outlook on Thailand's non-hydro renewables industry. We expect total non-hydro renewables capacity growth to average 6.1% across our forecast period, reaching a total of 7,835MW in 2025. In terms of generation, the industry will record a slightly stronger average growth of 6.7% per annum, totalling 16.6TWh in 2025.
Yingli Green Energy announced in January 2016 that it will establish a 300MW photovoltaic (PV) panel production plant in Rayong, Thailand in conjunction with Thai company Demeter Corporation.
In late 2015, China-based firm Zhongli Talesun Solar opened a 500MW PV module production facility in Thailand. The plant, situated at an industrial park in the Thai city of Rayong, will produce 500MW of cells and 500MW of modules in particular. The Chinese firm noted in a press release that it might extend the CNY2bn (USD314mn) facility with an additional 500MW in 2016.
We believe the Thai solar market is becoming increasingly attractive to Chinese solar companies, as they look to offset the overcapacity in their domestic market and seek out alternative growth opportunities. We expect those companies who are focusing heavily on expanding beyond their domestic market to outperform others with a smaller international footprint.
The Thailand Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Thailand. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Thailand, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Thailand, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Thailand Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thailand renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Thailand renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Thailand, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.