Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)'s economy will see weak economic activity growth in the coming years, as structurally lower oil prices weigh on consumption, investment and net exports. Low oil prices will weigh on the hydrocarbon sector's production outlook, while non-oil industries will struggle to become competitive.

  • The government will post consistent fiscal deficits, as low oil prices weigh on revenue collection. Expenditure cuts will be limited, as the government seeks to support economic activity.

  • Lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Tight control over foreign exchange sales by the central bank will prevent a significant depreciation of the currency, although the bank will allow the unit to gradually depreciate.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have downwardly revised our real GDP forecast in 2017 to 2.5% growth, from 3.1% previously, amid signs of weak investment and consumption.

  • We have downwardly revised our current account forecast in 2016 to a 6.8% deficit, from 2.1% previously, due to the continued weakness of hydrocarbons exports. We forecast deficits to persist in the coming years.

  • We do not expect additional interest rate hikes in 2016, due in large part to an anticipated rate hold in the US.

Key Risks

  • The primary risks lie to the downside. Should oil prices fail to sustain a recovery in H216, the recession in T&T could be more severe than currently anticipated. In such a scenario, the CBTT could allow the Trinidadian dollar to depreciate more quickly than forecast, precipitating rising inflation, falling imports and a risk of capital flight.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.9 -2.1 -1.7 2.5
Nominal GDP, USDbn 28.2 26.6 24.9 24.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 8.5 1.5 3.9 5.3
Exchange rate TTD/USD, eop 6.36 6.42 7.06 8.50
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.5 -4.2 -6.1 -5.1
Current account balance, % of GDP 4.5 -5.0 -6.9 -4.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Improving Energy Prices Support Rebound In 2017
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Fiscal Deficits Constrained By Difficult Financing
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
13
External Trade And Investment Outlook
14
Slumping Exports Drive Deteriorating External Position
14
Outlook On External Position
15
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2015
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2015
16
Monetary Policy
16
Hiking Cycle To Resume In H216
16
TABLE: INTEREST RATE & INFLATION FORECASTS
17
Monetary Policy Framework
18
Currency Forecast
19
TTD: External Account Pressure Will Force Depreciation
19
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
19
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2025
21
Oil Dependence Will Weigh On Growth Outlook
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
25
SWOT Analysis
25
BMI Political Risk Index
25
Domestic Politics
26
Economic Reforms Will Elevate Political Risk
26
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
26
Long-Term Political Outlook
27
Economic Slowdown Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
27
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk Index
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - LABOUR MARKET RISK
32
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - LOGISTICS RISK
34
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
36
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Trinidad & Tobago with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Trinidad & Tobago with confidence.

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