Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)'s economy will see weak economic activity growth in the coming years, as persistently weak oil prices weigh on consumption, investment and net exports. Low oil prices will compound the country's hydrocarbon sector poor production outlook, while non-oil industries will struggle to become competitive.

  • The government will post consistent fiscal deficits, as low oil prices weigh on revenue collection. Expenditure cuts will be limited, as the government seeks to support economic activity.

  • Lower oil prices will place depreciatory pressure on the Trinidadian dollar (TTD) over the coming quarters, resulting in a deterioration of the country's terms of trade and weaker investment inflows. Open market operations by the central bank will prevent a significant depreciation of the currency, although the bank will allow the unit to gradually depreciate in the coming quarters.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have downwardly revised our current account surplus forecast to 1.0% of GDP in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017 due to continued weakness in oil exports.

  • We have downwardly revised our fiscal deficit forecast to 7.6% of GDP in 2016 and 7.4% in 2017 due to our Oil & Gas team's downward revision of its forecast oil price.

Key Risks

  • The primary risks lie to the downside. Should oil prices remain at current levels through 2016, the recession in T&T could be more severe than currently anticipated. In such a scenario, the CBTT could allow the Trinidadian dollar to depreciate more quickly than forecast, precipitating rising inflation, falling imports and a risk of capital flight.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.9 -1.5 -0.2 2.7
Nominal GDP, USDbn 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 8.5 3.3 3.9 5.3
Exchange rate TTD/USD, eop 6.36 6.42 6.50 6.75
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.7 -5.8 -7.6 -7.4
Current account balance, % of GDP 5.8 1.7 1.0 1.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Recession Will Continue In 2016
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Persistent Fiscal Deficits Will Undermine Sovereign Credentials
11
Structural Fiscal Position
12
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Current Account Surpluses Mask Deterioration
13
Outlook On External Position
14
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS IMPORTS IN 2014
15
TABLE: TOP 5 GOODS EXPORTS IN 2014
15
Monetary Policy
16
Continuing Recession Will Temper Additional Hikes
16
TABLE: INTEREST RATE & INFLATION FORECASTS
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Currency Forecast
18
TTD: Deteriorating External Accounts Will Force Depreciation
18
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
18
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2025
21
Structurally Lower Oil Prices To Drag On Long-Term Growth
21
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
21
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
23
SWOT Analysis
23
BMI Political Risk Index
23
Domestic Politics
24
Violent Crimes Will Undermine Business Environment
24
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
24
Long-Term Political Outlook
25
Economic Slowdown Will Challenge Institutional Capacity
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
29
SWOT Analysis
29
Operational Risk Index
29
Operational Risk
30
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - LABOUR MARKET RISK
30
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - LOGISTICS RISK
32
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
34
TABLE: CARIBBEAN - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
36
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
37
Global Macro Outlook
37
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
37
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
37
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
38
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
38
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
39
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
41

Assess your risk exposure in Trinidad & Tobago with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Trinidad & Tobago with confidence.

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