Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report

Published 25 February 2015 | Quarterly

  • 36 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report

News: The UK's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is reportedly planning to support the controversial Medical Innovation Bill, which seeks to allow dying patients in England and Wales to be treated with untested medicines, reports the Telegraph. The proposed bill, originally put forward by Lord Saatchi, seeks clarification of the law stating that a doctor would not be deemed negligent if they were to depart from standard practice while treating a critical or life-threatening condition - providing the decision to do so is taken responsibly and is in a patient's best interest. The bill has been amended to make it mandatory for the doctors to secure agreement from another specialist in prescribing the drugs. On the basis of the amendment made to the bill and incorporation of other safety measures, the Department of Health has decided to offer its support. The House of Lords will debate the bill on October 24.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
PNM Victory Would See Fuel Subsidy More Swiftly Phased Out
8
Table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
11
SWOT Analysis
11
BMI Economic Risk Index
11
Economic Activity
12
Government Policies To Support Stronger Growth
12
Table: Economic Activity
12
Fiscal Policy
13
Deficit To Narrow Over Multi-Year Timeframe
13
Table: Fiscal Policy
13
Monetary Policy
15
Monetary Tightening To Continue Through 2015
15
Table: Monetary Policy
15
Exchange Rate Policy
16
TTD: Drop In Oil Prices To Increase Downward Pressures
16
Table: Exchange Rate
16
Table: CURRENCY FORECAST
17
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts
17
Balance Of Payments
18
External Account Stability Will Persist
18
Table: Current Account
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Trinidad & Tobago Economy To 2023
21
Growth Will Have Limited Upside Over The Coming Decade
21
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
Labour Market Risk
26
Table: Caribbean - Operational Risk
26
Table: Caribbean - Labour Market Risk
26
Logistics Risk
27
Table: Caribbean - Logistics Risk
27
Trade And Investment Risk
28
table: Caribbean - Trade & Investment Risk
28
Crime And Security Risk
29
Table: Caribbean - Crime And Security Risk
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions
31
Global Outlook
31
Reality Check: Uncertainty Reigns
31
Table: Global Assumptions
31
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
32
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
32
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
33

The Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Trinidad & Tobago. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Trinidad & Tobago's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Trinidad & Tobago's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Trinidad & Tobago's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Trinidad & Tobago, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Trinidad & Tobago' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Trinidad & Tobago Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Trinidad & Tobago and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Trinidad & Tobago, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Trinidad & Tobago over the next 5-years?

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Trinidad & Tobago Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Trinidad & Tobago's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Trinidad & Tobago’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Trinidad & Tobago's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Trinidad & Tobago?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Trinidad & Tobago against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express