BMI View: An agreement with Venezuela over the Dragon development could help to ease persistent shortages of naturals gas that have delayed projects and affected gas exports in Trinidad & Tobago . However the project remains extremely uncertain and is not yet included in our forecasts given continued political upheaval in Venezuela. With supply challenges expected to persist at least into 2017, the upstream and downstream sector will face continued headwinds - evidence d by tensions between the government and international oil companies.
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||116.1||114.9||116.1||117.2||118.8||120.4||121.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||110.1||110.7||111.2||111.8||112.3||112.9||113.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||45.9||46.4||45.3||44.9||45.0||45.4||45.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||41.6||39.5||38.9||40.6||42.3||44.2||45.1|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||20.6||20.2||20.4||20.8||21.1||21.3||21.8|
The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:
Trinidad and Tobago disclosed plans to finance a new pipeline that would carry gas from from Venezuela's Dragon field, which could contain up to 339 bcm of gas. The project would deliver sorely needed new supplies that could help to ease persistent shortages of gas. However the project has not yet been included in our forecasts given uncertainty over the political and economic situation in Venezuela.
Gas shortages are likely to persist at least until 2017 and may even continue beyond then. The lack of supply has affected downstream industries, resulting in delays to key projects and reducing exports.
BHP Billiton is preparing to commence its offshore drilling campaign targeting a major deepwater prospect that has at least 5 bn bbl of oil in place. The first phase of the project will last for nine months and a major discovery could provide a significant boost the outlook for reserves and production.
State-run Petrotrin has amended royalty levels to incentivise production. Despite this, the overall outlook for upstream investment in both exploration and production remains modest amid a slowdown in activity based on both prices and concerns about the competitiveness of the local market.
While Trinidad and Tobago had benefited from renewed interest in its onshore and offshore acreage, the decline in global oil prices will continue weigh on the outlook for the sector. The easiest to recover reserves have already been exploited and remaining resources are likely to be more complex and require greater investment to recover.
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.