Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report
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BMI View: Shortages of natural gas are expected to persist at least until the start of the Juniper field in late 2017. These supply challenges will continue to disrupt gas exports and comes amid government concerns over the profitability of liquefied natural gas exports. The government has also called for operators to fully exploit existing acreage, suggesting the emergence of tensions between officials and upstream players. While a series of major wells is being planned in 2016, investment has already been delayed due to the current market conditions, underscoring the impact of low er commodity prices .

Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 116.1 114.9 116.1 117.2 118.8 120.4 121.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 110.1 110.7 111.2 111.8 112.3 112.9 113.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 45.9 46.4 45.3 44.9 45.0 45.4 45.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 41.6 39.5 34.9 39.5 42.4 43.1 43.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 20.6 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

  • T&T disclosed plans to finance a new pipeline that would carry gas from Venezuela's Dragon field, which could contain up to 339bcm of gas. The project would deliver sorely needed new supplies that could help to ease persistent shortages of gas. However the project has not yet been included in our forecasts, given uncertainty over the political and economic situation in Venezuela.

  • BHP Billiton commenced its offshore drilling campaign alongside its partner Royal Dutch Shell in May, targeting a major deepwater prospect that was believed to have at least 5bn bbl of oil in place. On August 11, the company announced it has plugged the LeClerc 1 ST01 deepwater well located some 217km offshore after it encountered natural gas in multiple zones but failed to discover oil. The exploration plan will test several additional deposits over the next three years, focusing on the discovery of commercial oil.

  • T&T's LNG exports declined a reported 19.9% y-o-y through the month of June. This was due to continued production shortfalls in the country, which fell by an estimated 13.8% y-o-y for the month. Exports have not shuttered, however, with the country's first cargo travelling through the newly-expanded Panama Canal to Mexico's Pacific coast in late July.

  • An increase in gas production beginning next year will support a rebound in economic growth within the country. That said, growth over the coming years will remain constrained, averaging 2.7% growth between 2017 and 2020. The dominant energy sector faces a relatively weak production outlook, while investment into non-energy sectors will be stymied by a poor business environment. Additionally, ongoing structural adjustments to address fiscal and current account imbalances will dampen public and private consumption.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
13
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
13
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends
16
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
17
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
20
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
20
Refining
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
26
Gas Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
28
Trade - Oil
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2020)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2014-2019)
36
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2020-2025)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
37
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
38
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
39
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
42
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Trinidad & Tobago - Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
46
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
46
Key Legislation
46
Relevant Government Ministries
46
Regulatory Bodies
46
National Oil Company
46
Fiscal Regime
47
Table: Trinidad and Tobago - Upstream Tax Regime
47
Table: Trinidad & Tobago - Contracts & Licensing Regime
47
Licensing Rounds
47
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Oil Refineries in Trinidad & Tobago
51
Oil Storage Facilities
51
Oil Terminals/Ports
51
Table: Trinidad & Tobago - Oil Terminals & Ports
51
LNG Terminals
51
Table: Trinidad & Tobago - Existing and Planned LNG Terminals
52
Gas Storage
52
Table: Trinidad and Tobago - Gas Storage Facilities
52
Table: Trinidad and Tobago -Natural Gas Pipelines
52
Table: Trinidad and Tobago - Crude Oil Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
54
Table: Key Upstream Players
55
Table: Key Downstream Players
55
Company Profile
56
Petroleum Company Of T&T (Petrotrin)
56
Latest Updates
56
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets in Trinidad and Tobago
57
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
57
BPTT
59
Latest Updates
59
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Trinidad and Tobago
60
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
60
Regional Overview
61
Latin America Overview
61
Table: Latin America Oil and Gas Production, Refining Capacity and Trade, 2014-2025
70
Glossary
72
Table: Glossary Of Terms
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Source
76
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
78
Table: Weighting
79

The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.