BMI View: Officials with Trinidad and Tobago's new government have expressed increasing alarm over declining reserves and production of both oil and gas. The outlook remains bearish until 2018 amid shortages of gas supplies that have affected exports. Though Trinidad and Tobago remains prospective, it is unclear when supplies will materialise, suggesting continued challenges to both the upstream and downstream sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||117.8||116.3||115.1||116.3||117.4||119.0||120.6|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||42.8||41.5||41.1||40.7||41.3||42.0||42.8|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||20.2||20.8||21.4||22.1||22.7||23.4||23.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||109.5||110.1||110.6||111.2||111.8||112.3||112.9|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||45.1||46.1||47.2||48.4||49.5||50.7||52.0|
The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:
The energy minister has warned of an 'unabated decline' in oil and gas reserves and production. The minister cited a need to focus on long-term efforts to rebuild the country's reserves and strengthen the production outlook, and said that new incentives could be introduced to attract new upstream investment. Further licensing rounds are likely, with one proposed for 2016, however, new production from ongoing exploration is unlikely before the end of the decade, suggesting continued challenges for the upstream oil and gas outlook.
Tensions among upstream companies and the government may emerge in the months ahead. The ministry called on operators to fully exploit their acreage. The government is also likely to review the strategy and holdings of state-owned Petrotrin, though this could result in the licensing of prospective acreage held by the national oil company to other players.
Curtailments of natural gas have average around 15-30% since 2014 and are likely to persist until new supplies come online in 2017-2018. In response to accelerating declines in domestic gas output, we have lowered our forecast for natural gas production and consumption in 2015 and 2016. While we still expect growth in both areas, we have lowered the rate of increase, and note the risk is firmly the downside in the absence of a clear plan to resolve current supply shortages.
The growing supply-demand gap will also weigh on exports of LNG. The timing of current supply challenges is in opportune given Trinidad and Tobago is anticipated to face growing competition in the LNG export market from the US and other producers globally. The gas deficit is also likely to affect key domestic downstream industries such as ammonia and methanol.
Notwithstanding renewed interest in upstream investment in Trinidad and Tobago, the decline in global oil prices will continue weigh on the outlook for the sector. The easiest to recover reserves have already been exploited and remaining resources are likely to be more complex and require greater investment to recover. Amid pressure to cut capital expenditure in response to a weaker industry finances, upstream investment in Trinidad and Tobago could be delayed or reduced.
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
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A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
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Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
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