BMI View: Shortages of natural gas are expected to persist at least until the start of the Juniper field in late 2017. These supply challenges will continue to disrupt gas exports and comes amid government concerns over the profitability of liquefied natural gas exports. The government has also called for operators to fully exploit existing acreage, suggesting the emergence of tensions between officials and upstream players. While a series of major wells is being planned in 2016, investment has already been delayed due to the current market conditions, underscoring the impact of low er commodity prices .
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||116.1||114.9||116.1||117.2||118.8||120.4||121.6|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||110.1||110.7||111.2||111.8||112.3||112.9||113.5|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||45.9||46.4||45.3||44.9||45.0||45.4||45.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||41.6||39.5||34.9||39.5||42.4||43.1||43.3|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||20.6||20.2||20.4||20.8||21.1||21.3||21.8|
The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:
T&T disclosed plans to finance a new pipeline that would carry gas from Venezuela's Dragon field, which could contain up to 339bcm of gas. The project would deliver sorely needed new supplies that could help to ease persistent shortages of gas. However the project has not yet been included in our forecasts, given uncertainty over the political and economic situation in Venezuela.
BHP Billiton commenced its offshore drilling campaign alongside its partner Royal Dutch Shell in May, targeting a major deepwater prospect that was believed to have at least 5bn bbl of oil in place. On August 11, the company announced it has plugged the LeClerc 1 ST01 deepwater well located some 217km offshore after it encountered natural gas in multiple zones but failed to discover oil. The exploration plan will test several additional deposits over the next three years, focusing on the discovery of commercial oil.
T&T's LNG exports declined a reported 19.9% y-o-y through the month of June. This was due to continued production shortfalls in the country, which fell by an estimated 13.8% y-o-y for the month. Exports have not shuttered, however, with the country's first cargo travelling through the newly-expanded Panama Canal to Mexico's Pacific coast in late July.
An increase in gas production beginning next year will support a rebound in economic growth within the country. That said, growth over the coming years will remain constrained, averaging 2.7% growth between 2017 and 2020. The dominant energy sector faces a relatively weak production outlook, while investment into non-energy sectors will be stymied by a poor business environment. Additionally, ongoing structural adjustments to address fiscal and current account imbalances will dampen public and private consumption.
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.