Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

Published 25 March 2015

  • 139 pages
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Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Trinidad & Tobago has benefitted from strong upstream investment and this trend is expected to continue over the forecast period and could even increase should additional incentives materialise. Though we continue to forecast declines in reserves that will see supply shortfalls persist, we note the upside from both exploration and potential development of cross-border fields.

Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 120.3 121.1 122.3 124.4 126.4 128.6 129.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 42.3 42.7 43.4 43.7 44.1 44.6 45.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 24.2 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 28.7
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 134.3 135.0 135.7 136.3 137.0 137.7 138.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 47.8 49.0 50.2 51.4 52.6 53.9 55.2

The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

  • Since 2010, the country has signed 20 onshore and offshore contracts and licenses and additional deepwater and shallow-water bidding rounds are planned in 2015. The additional investment from the planned bidding rounds provide upside risk to the reserves outlook for oil and gas, though it remains too early to revise our forecast and we note any production is unlikely to materialise before 2025.

  • Previous analysis by outside consultants has estimated 3P reserves of 650bcm, suggesting the country has sizable untapped hydrocarbons potential. Overall resource potential increased significantly by 252bcm to reach 1.12trn cubic metres (tcm). Promisingly, these figures do not include recently awarded deepwater blocks.

  • An February 2015 agreement between Venezuela and Trinidad to jointly develop cross-border oil and gas fields could be...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
18
Refining
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
36
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
38
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
39
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
41
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
44
Trinidad & Tobago - Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
46
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
46
Licensing And Regulation
47
Table: 2013/14 Budget Incentives
49
Government Policy
49
Licensing Rounds
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago
53
Service Stations
54
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Terminals/ Ports/Pipelines
54
LNG Terminals
54
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago
55
Gas Storage
56
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
57
Competitive Landscape Summary
57
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
58
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Table: Key Downstream Players
59
Company Profile
60
Petroleum Company Of T&T (Petrotrin)
60
National Gas Company Of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC)
65
Trinidad & Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company (NP)
69
BPTT
72
BG Trinidad & Tobago
78
BHP Petroleum
83
Centrica
86
EOG Resources
89
Other Summaries
92
Regional Overview
98
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
98
Global Industry Overview
106
Global Industry Overview - Five Themes For 2015: Oil & Gas
106
Table: LNG Export Terminals At Pre-FID Stage
111
Appendix
113
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
113
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
113
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
114
Latin America - Regional Appendix
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
121
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
121
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Trinidad & Tobago - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
129
Trinidad & Tobago - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
130
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
130
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
130
Glossary
132
Table: Glossary Of Terms
132
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Source
136
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
136
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
138
Table: Weighting
139

The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc