Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Officials with Trinidad and Tobago's new government have expressed increasing alarm over declining reserves and production of both oil and gas. The outlook remains bearish until 2018 amid shortages of gas supplies that have affected exports. Though Trinidad and Tobago remains prospective, it is unclear when supplies will materialise, suggesting continued challenges to both the upstream and downstream sector.

Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 117.8 116.3 115.1 116.3 117.4 119.0 120.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 42.8 41.5 41.1 40.7 41.3 42.0 42.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.4 23.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 109.5 110.1 110.6 111.2 111.8 112.3 112.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 45.1 46.1 47.2 48.4 49.5 50.7 52.0
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:

  • The energy minister has warned of an 'unabated decline' in oil and gas reserves and production. The minister cited a need to focus on long-term efforts to rebuild the country's reserves and strengthen the production outlook, and said that new incentives could be introduced to attract new upstream investment. Further licensing rounds are likely, with one proposed for 2016, however, new production from ongoing exploration is unlikely before the end of the decade, suggesting continued challenges for the upstream oil and gas outlook.

  • Tensions among upstream companies and the government may emerge in the months ahead. The ministry called on operators to fully exploit their acreage. The government is also likely to review the strategy and holdings of state-owned Petrotrin, though this could result in the licensing of prospective acreage held by the national oil company to other players.

  • Curtailments of natural gas have average around 15-30% since 2014 and are likely to persist until new supplies come online in 2017-2018. In response to accelerating declines in domestic gas output, we have lowered our forecast for natural gas production and consumption in 2015 and 2016. While we still expect growth in both areas, we have lowered the rate of increase, and note the risk is firmly the downside in the absence of a clear plan to resolve current supply shortages.

  • The growing supply-demand gap will also weigh on exports of LNG. The timing of current supply challenges is in opportune given Trinidad and Tobago is anticipated to face growing competition in the LNG export market from the US and other producers globally. The gas deficit is also likely to affect key domestic downstream industries such as ammonia and methanol.

  • Notwithstanding renewed interest in upstream investment in Trinidad and Tobago, the decline in global oil prices will continue weigh on the outlook for the sector. The easiest to recover reserves have already been exploited and remaining resources are likely to be more complex and require greater investment to recover. Amid pressure to cut capital expenditure in response to a weaker industry finances, upstream investment in Trinidad and Tobago could be delayed or reduced.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
20
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
20
Table: Gas Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
20
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
26
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
40
Upstream RRI: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
42
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
43
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
45
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
47
Trinidad & Tobago - Risk/Reward Index
48
Market Overview
49
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Table: 2013/14 Budget Incentives
51
Government Policy
51
Licensing Rounds
52
International Energy Relations
55
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago
56
Service Stations
57
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Oil Terminals/ Ports/Pipelines
57
LNG Terminals
57
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago
58
Gas Storage
59
Gas Pipelines
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players
61
Table: Key Upstream Players
61
Table: Key Downstream Players
62
Company Profile
63
Petroleum Company Of T&T (Petrotrin)
63
National Gas Company Of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC)
68
Trinidad & Tobago National Petroleum Marketing Company (NP)
72
BPTT
75
BG Trinidad & Tobago
81
BHP Petroleum
87
Centrica
91
EOG Resources
94
Other Summaries
97
Regional Overview
104
Latin America Overview
104
Global Industry Overview
113
Global Energy Market Overview
113
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
113
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
116
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
117
Appendix
119
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
119
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
119
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
120
Latin America - Regional Appendix
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
125
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
128
Trinidad & Tobago - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
130
Trinidad & Tobago - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
136
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2013-2018)
137
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Trinidad & Tobago 2019-2024)
137
Glossary
138
Table: Glossary Of Terms
138
Methodology
140
Industry Forecast Methodology
140
Source
142
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
142
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
144
Table: Weighting
145

The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Trinidadian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Trinidadian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Trinidad & Tobago.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.