BMI View: Shortages of natural gas are expected to persist at least until the start of the Juniper field in late 2017. These supply challenges will continue to disrupt gas exports and comes amid government concerns over the profitability of liquefied natural gas exports. The government has also called for operators to fully exploit existing acreage, suggesting the emergence of tensions between officials and upstream players. While a series of major wells are planned in 2016, investment has already been delayed due to the current market conditions, underscoring the impact of the current low oil price on the sector.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||116.3||115.1||116.3||117.4||119.0||120.6||121.8|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||41.5||39.5||38.9||40.6||42.3||44.2||45.0|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||20.6||20.2||20.0||20.0||20.2||20.4||20.8|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||110.1||110.6||111.2||111.8||112.3||112.9||113.4|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||46.1||47.2||48.4||49.5||50.7||52.0||53.2|
The main trends and developments in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:
Energy Minister Nicole Olivierre warned in January 2015 that the government was prepared to reclaim unutilised acreage licensed to operators. The minister reiterated a warning from several months earlier that companies need to ensure they carried out agreed upon work programmes or risk having acreage reclaimed by the government, which is seeking to sustain investment amid the decline in global oil and gas prices.
BHP Billiton confirmed in January it planned to drill as many as three deepwater wells on its acreage in the country during the year. If completed, it would mark the first time a deepwater well was drilled in Trinidad and Tobago. BP's local outfit also said it planned to drill a well targeting a prospect near the Juniper development in 2016. The planned drilling signals continued investment in the upstream sector despite the current market conditions, though some operators have confirmed plans to delay or defer investment in Trinidad and Tobago.
High decline rates for crude oil production and shortages of natural gas that have led to curtailments of supply underscore the challenges facing the upstream sector. Shortages of natural gas have proven especially troubling and disruptive to energy sector, affecting the country's LNG exports and creating challenges for the petrochemicals sector. Shortages are expected to persist until 2017 given the absence of new major upstream developments until BP's Juniper field comes online. There is continued concern however that supply challenges could persist beyond that date.
The energy ministry has signalled a possible shift in the country's approach to the LNG market. The government has said exports of LNG were no longer offered the best returns. The ministry suggested the government could revise its policy to reflect this, directing more of the country's gas to more profitable petrochemicals and other uses. Officials were also critical of commercial partners failure to share profits from gas sold to higher cost markets.
Officials were reportedly reviewing acreage for an onshore bidding round that could occur at some point in 2016. However it was unclear whether the government would enact fiscal changes sought by upstream players. While Trinidad and Tobago had benefitted from renewed interest in its onshore and offshore acreage, the decline in global oil prices will continue weigh on the outlook for the sector. The easiest to recover reserves have already been exploited and remaining resources are likely to be more complex and require greater investment to recover.
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.