Turkey Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Turkey Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Relative to the past decade, we expect slower, more balanced growth in the next decade on the back of less abundant foreign capital inflows and slower domestic credit growth.

  • Turkey faces a challenging foreign policy environment amidst heightened regional tensions and rising external security risks as the government attempts to cement its role as an economic and political power in the region.

  • With the Justice and Development Party (AKP) regaining its parliamentary majority in the November 2015 general election, Turkey will operate under a de-facto executive presidential system, with negative implications for institutional quality and government checks and balances.

  • A collapse of the government's ceasefire with the Kurdish separatist PKK is a major step back for the country, weighing on growth potential.

  • While the government's debt load is low by regional standards, the private sector's rampant external borrowing in previous years has greatly increased macroeconomic risks.

  • Despite cheaper oil, Turkey's current account deficit will remain large and a major macroeconomic vulnerability. Turkey will remain reliant on short-term foreign capital inflows to cover the sizeable current account shortfall, leaving it prone to tightening global liquidity and shifts in international risk sentiment.

  • A dovish central bank will keep inflation above target and ensure a volatile growth trajectory.

Major Forecast Changes

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks

  • The major risk to Turkey's macroeconomic trajectory in the coming years stems from its large external financing requirement. Turkey's large current account deficit and dearth of foreign direct investment inflows leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks and a major outflow of foreign capital, which becomes more likely as the US Federal Reserve commences a tightening cycle. As such, we believe risks to growth are weighted primarily to the downside.

  • Geopolitical conflict and rising incidence of terrorist attacks within Turkish borders have weighed on external trade and tourism inflows, and may escalate in the coming year, dampening further the growth outlook.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.2 2.9 2.8 2.9
Nominal GDP, USDbn 822.4 799.8 685.7 677.9
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 7.4 8.2 7.8 7.1
Exchange rate TRY/USD, eop 2.15 2.34 3.10 3.20
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 -1.8
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.9 -5.7 -5.0 -5.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics I
8
Another Hung Parliament After Snap Election
8
Table: Politica l Over vie w
8
Domestic Politics II
10
Security Risks Rapidly Rising From IS, PKK
10
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Structural Changes To Continue
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth Outlook Rapidly Deteriorating
14
TABLE: Economic Activity
14
Monetary Policy
17
Crisis Looming Without Rate Hikes
17
TABLE: Monetar y Polic y Forecasts
17
FX Forecast
19
TRY: More Pain Ahead
19
TABLE: BMI Currenc y Forecast
19
Balance Of Payments
20
External Rebalancing To Disappoint
20
TABLE: Current Acc ount Forecasts
20
Fiscal Policy
22
Investment Grade Rating At Risk
22
TABLE: Fisca l Polic y Forecasts
23
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Turkish Economy To 2024
25
Convergence Remains In Play
25
TABLE: Long -Term Macroec onomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: Operati ona l Risk
28
Market Size And Utilities
29
TABLE: Emerging Eur ope - Market Size And Utilities Risk
30
International Security Risk
34
TABLE: Emerging Europe - Interstate Securit y Risk
34
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Telecommunications
37
TABLE: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
38
TABLE: Telecoms Sector - Wire line - Historical Data & Forecasts
38
Agribusiness
41
TABLE: Poultry Production & Consumption
42
TABLE: Beef Production & Consumption
43
TABLE: Wheat Production & Consumption
44
TABLE: Corn Production & Consumption
44
TABLE: Barley Production & Consumption
45
TABLE: Sugar Production & Consumption
46
Other Key Sectors
47
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
47
Table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
48
Table: Freight Key Indicators
48
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
49
Global Macro Outlook
49
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
49
Table: Global Assumptions
49
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
50
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
50
Table: Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth, %
51

Assess your risk exposure in Turkey with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Turkey with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report