Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 February 2015

  • 121 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Manufacturing Sector Will Remain Main Driver Of Growth

A main driver of stronger real GDP growth in Mexico in the coming years will be robust manufacturing sector output. The country's manufacturing sector, with an estimated value of USD12.6bn in 2013, accounts for 16.6% of GDP. Manufacturing output has averaged annual real growth of 2.0% over the last five years, above Mexico's average real GDP growth of 1.9% over the same period. We expect manufacturing to remain an outperforming sector in Mexico in the coming years, driven by ease of access to a recovering US consumer market. The sector was negatively affected by poor weather in the US earlier this year, but improving manufacturing sector confidence ( see chart below) suggests that a sustained recovery will take place in the coming quarters.

Improving Confidence Points To Sustained Recovery
Mexico - IMEF Manufacturing Confidence Index

Household Spending Growth To Accelerate

Household spending in Mexico will recover in the coming months and experience a more notable improvement in 2015. Real private consumption growth slowed from 4.9% in 2012 to 2.5% in 2013, and weakened further to 1.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H114, due to poor labour market dynamics and the effects of tax hikes implemented in January 2014. However, strong job generation in the manufacturing and construction sectors will drive a decline in unemployment and support stronger household spending in the coming months. Consumer confidence has been improving in recent months ( see chart below), signalling that the effects of the tax hikes are receding. Retail sales have also picked up in recent months, expanding by 1.1% y-o-y in July and 4.4% y-o-y in August, after averaging 0.6% y-o-y growth in H114. We forecast real private consumption growth of 2.6% in 2014 and 3.7% in 2015, up from 2.5% in 2013.

Consumer Recovery On Track
Mexico - Consumer Confidence And Retail Sales

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2012-2017)
15
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2018-2023)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2012-2017)
17
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2018-2023)
17
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2013-2017)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2018-2023)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2012-2017)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2018-2023)
21
Gas Consumption
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2012-2017)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2018-2023)
24
Trade - Oil
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2012-2017)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2018-2023)
26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2012-2017)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2018-2023)
28
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2012-2017)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2018-2023)
31
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2012-2017)
32
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2018-2023)
32
Industry Risk Reward Index
36
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
37
Caspian Retains Upstream Indices Lead
37
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Sanctions Hit
40
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
42
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
45
Turkey Upstream Index
45
Turkey Downstream Index
46
Market Overview
47
Turkey Energy Market Overview
47
Table: Turkey's Five-Year Energy Strategy
47
Regulatory Structure
48
Licensing Regime
48
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: Turkey Tax Regime
49
Energy Transit Hub
49
International Energy Relations
51
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Refineries In Turkey
52
Service Stations
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
55
LNG Terminals
56
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
56
Gas Pipelines
57
Gas Storage
59
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
61
Table: Key Upstream Players
61
Company Profile
62
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
62
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
67
OMV Petrol Ofisi
71
Other Summaries
74
Regional Overview
83
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
83
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian To Lead Growth
83
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Growth Outpacing Supply
84
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
85
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Gas Firing Up China
86
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Targeting Exports
87
Global Industry Overview
89
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
91
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
92
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
93
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
93
Appendix
95
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
95
Table: Energy Price Forecasts ( Global 2012-2017)
95
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2018-2023)
96
Turkey - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2012-2017)
98
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2018-2023)
99
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2012-2017)
100
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2018-2023)
101
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2012-2017)
102
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2018-2023)
103
Turkey - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
104
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2012-2017)
104
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2018-2023)
105
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Glossary
115
Table: Glossary Of Terms
115
Methodology
117
Industry Forecast Methodology
117
Source
119
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
119
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
121
Table: Weighting
122

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc