Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Turkey Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020 , remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Tupras, EPDK, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 48.8 48.5 47.8 46.8 45.5 44.2 42.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 451.8 478.0 479.0 480.0 574.7 653.8 665.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 782.3 819.7 834.0 848.3 865.5 880.5 890.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 48.7 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.1 55.5 57.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • With Russian-Turkish relations in a precarious state, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that moving away from Russian energy dependence is a priority, with Turkey importing more than 50% of its natural gas and 11% of crude oil from Russia in 2015. However, we anticipate little change to Russia's prominent role in Turkey's energy mix as, according to our Turkey Country Risk analysts, political rhetoric seldom has real economic implications.

  • The positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin show good prospectivity with the potential of further gas discoveries presenting upside risk. Over the long term we forecast natural gas production to fall, as output from conventional fields declines. Valeura Energy started selling gas from its Bati Gurgen 1 well adding an additional 0.034bcm to Turkey's gas production, raising it by 6.7%. Shell and TPAO completed the Sile-1 exploration well in the Black Sea in June 2015 and are currently evaluating results. Downside risk to development comes from capex cuts that all oil companies, to include Shell, are undertaking, leaving the ultra-deep and therefore very expensive Sile-1 particularly vulnerable.

  • In August 2015, construction began on a port for the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic ( SOCAR)'s Star Oil Refinery in Turkey. Work on Star Refinery is progressing rapidly, with SOCAR having spent USD2bn on the project so far, according to SOCAR Turkey President Kenan Yavuz.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Turkey Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
17
Refining
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
20
Refined Fuels Consumption
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2019-2024)
22
Gas Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
25
Trade - Oil
25
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2019)
26
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
27
Fuels Trade Forecast
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Products Net Exports
29
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Index
34
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
34
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
35
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
35
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
38
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
38
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
40
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
41
Turkey Upstream Index
41
Turkey Downstream Index
42
Market Overview
43
Turkey Energy Market Overview
43
Regulatory Structure
43
Fiscal Regime
44
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime
44
Licensing Regime
44
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
45
Oil Refineries
45
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey
45
Service Stations
46
Oil Terminals/Ports
46
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
47
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Gas Storage
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Competitive Landscape Summary
50
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
51
Table: Key Upstream Players
52
Company Profile
53
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
53
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
57
OMV Petrol Ofisi
62
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
77
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
77
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth
77
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening
78
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions
79
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon
80
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
81
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
82
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
83
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Source
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
91
Table: Weighting
92

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.