Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 August 2015

  • 123 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkey Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Lower oil prices are supporting increased consumption of refined fuels and natural gas in Turkey . We expect this to continue while oil prices remain low and the l ira stable against the USD. Turkey's longer term production outlook remains weak with mature assets and exploration cutbacks.

Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Tupras, EPDK, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 47.3 48.8 48.5 47.8 46.8 45.5 44.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 45.9 48.7 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.1 58.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 443.5 451.8 478.0 479.0 480.0 574.7 653.8
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 794.4 783.0 811.7 815.0 816.7 828.1 837.2

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • Refined fuel consumption, particularly gasoline and jet fuel, has risen over H115 as a stable lira has enabled lower crude oil costs to filter into pump prices.

  • Production of refined fuels will also increase in 2015 and 2016 as Tupras takes advantage of lower oil prices and stronger domestic demand.

  • Low oil prices feeding through to gas contract prices will support a jump in gas consumption in 2015. H1 gas consumption has been stronger than the seasonal average.

  • We also expect Turkey to increase spot LNG purchases in 2015 and 2016, taking advantage of lower oil-indexed prices - Qatar will be the main beneficiary.

  • The proposed Turkish Stream pipeline from Russia is at risk of delay given slow negotiations. This is also putting the gas discount offered by Russia at risk.

  • Shell and TPAO spud the Sile-1 exploration well in the Black Sea in April. Results are expected in late August.

  • TPAO announced they...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
17
Refining
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
19
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
19
Refined Fuels Consumption
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
21
Gas Consumption
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
24
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
24
Trade - Oil
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
27
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
27
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
29
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2013-2018)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
33
Industry Risk Reward Index
37
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
37
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China
38
Regional Minnows Holding Up
40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market
41
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
44
Turkey Upstream Index
45
Turkey Downstream Index
45
Market Overview
46
Turkey Energy Market Overview
46
Table: Turkey's Long-Term Energy Strategy
46
Regulatory Structure
47
Licensing Regime
47
Fiscal Regime
48
Table: Turkey Tax Regime
48
Energy Transit Hub
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Refineries In Turkey
50
Service Stations
52
Oil Terminals/Ports
52
Oil Pipelines
52
LNG Terminals
53
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
53
Gas Pipelines
54
Gas Storage
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Competitive Landscape Summary
56
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
57
Table: Key Upstream Players
58
Company Profile
59
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
59
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
63
OMV Petrol Ofisi
67
Other Summaries
71
Regional Overview
81
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
81
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth
81
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness
82
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market
83
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
84
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
85
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
86
Global Industry Overview
88
Global Energy Market Overview
88
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
88
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
92
Appendix
94
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
94
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
94
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
95
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
102
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
103
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
104
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
105
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Turkey - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
112
Turkey - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
115
Glossary
116
Table: Glossary Of Terms
116
Methodology
118
Industry Forecast Methodology
118
Source
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
120
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
122
Table: Weighting
123

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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