Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Published 27 May 2015

  • 124 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkey Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Turkey will be a net benefactor of weak oil prices , though a weak lira will limit the demand-side response. A closer strategic relationship with Russia including a new pipeline and gas discounts, as well as the TANAP pipeline from Azerbaijan will move Turkey closer to its ambitions of being an energy hub. Exploration will slow with TPAO drilling around half the planned wells in 2015.

Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Tupras, EPDK, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 47.3 48.7 48.4 47.8 46.7 45.4 44.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 47.1 48.2 51.8 52.9 53.6 55.0 58.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 443.5 419.7 420.8 422.3 450.0 542.4 552.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 729.6 690.2 698.0 704.4 706.3 716.5 724.6

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • Turkey will be a net benefactor from the fall in crude oil prices given its vast import bill. The country could save as much as USD15bn in 2015 over 2014.

  • We have revised up our short-term natural gas consumption forecast on lower oil-linked gas contract prices, a 10.25% discount on Russian gas and Energy Ministry plans to import more gas. We forecast consumption growth of 9.5% in 2015.

  • We also expect Turkey to increase spot LNG purchases in 2015, taking advantage of lower oil-indexed prices.

  • We have tempered our refined fuels demand forecast as depreciating lira mitigates much of the reduction in fuels price that has filtered through from lower oil prices. Turkey already ranks among the highest fuels prices globally.

  • Russia and Turkey have agreed to land the former South Stream project, now Turkish Stream, in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkey 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
19
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
19
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2013-2018)
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2013-2018)
33
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkey 2019-2024)
34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
39
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
39
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
40
Upstream: Sending Gas To China
40
Regional Minnows Holding Up
42
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream: Turkish Star Shines In Weak Market
43
Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
46
Turkey Upstream Index
47
Turkey Downstream Index
47
Market Overview
48
Turkey Energy Market Overview
48
Table: Turkey's Five-Year Energy Strategy
48
Regulatory Structure
49
Licensing Regime
49
Fiscal Regime
50
Table: Turkey Tax Regime
50
Energy Transit Hub
50
International Energy Relations
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Turkey
53
Service Stations
55
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
56
LNG Terminals
57
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
57
Gas Pipelines
57
Gas Storage
60
Competitive Landscape
61
Competitive Landscape Summary
61
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
62
Table: Key Upstream Players
63
Company Profile
64
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
64
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
68
OMV Petrol Ofisi
72
Other Summaries
75
Regional Overview
84
Central and Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
84
Oil Production: Caspian Leads Growth
84
Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
85
Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
86
Natural Gas Production: Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
87
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
88
Global Industry Overview
90
Oil Price Outlook
90
Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
Turkey Oil & Gas Report Q3 2015
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
- Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
90
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
91
Appendix
98
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
98
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
99
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
100
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
101
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
104
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Turkey - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
109
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
110
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2013-2018)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkey 2019-2024)
114
Turkey - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2013-2018)
115
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkey 2019-2024)
116
Glossary
117
Table: Glossary Of Terms
117
Methodology
119
Industry Forecast Methodology
119
Source
121
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
121
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
123
Table: Weighting
124

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc