Turkey Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Turkey Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020 , remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.

Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Tupras, EPDK, JODI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 48.8 48.5 47.8 46.8 45.5 44.2 42.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 451.8 478.0 479.0 480.0 574.7 653.8 665.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 782.1 819.9 837.9 859.9 884.8 930.8 972.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 48.7 48.0 48.2 48.9 50.1 51.4 52.8
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:

  • We have upgraded our refined fuels consumption forecast for Turkey on the back of a significant expansion in airport capacity boosting jet fuel demand and strong construction growth driving up diesel demand. We expect Turkey to consume 1.04mn barrels per day (b/d) of refined fuels by 2025, a 174,000 b/d increase from our original forecast of 870,000 b/d. The bulk of this increase has come from the inclusion of the Istanbul New Airport into our forecast, which in its first phase will have a capacity of 90mn people annually and reaching up to 200mn people per year in the second phase. Upon completion the airport will be the largest in Europe and will considerably boost demand of jet fuel as Turkey looks to grow its role as a global aviation hub, competing with the likes of the UAE for east-west airline traffic .

  • Statoil has gained access to the deeper formations of Valeura's Banarli licences, allowing the Norwegian company to target the potential below 2,500m.

  • We have revised up our gas production forecast based on the inclusion of Condor Petroleum's Poyraz Ridge field which we expect to come online by mid-2017. The field will produce 15 MMscf/day via a gas processing facility.

  • The failed coup in July has not altered SOCAR's investment plans for Turkey, committing to getting the Star refinery online by 2018. By catering to the domestic deficit in diesel and jet fuel, the Star refinery will be Europe's only newly built facility in the next five years.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Turkey - Key Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
19
Refining
20
Latest Updates
20
Structural Trends
20
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2014-2019)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkey 2020-2025)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2014-2019)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkey 2020-2025)
25
Gas Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkey 2020-2025)
28
Trade - Oil
29
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2020)
30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
31
Fuels Trade Forecast
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2014-2019)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkey 2020-2025)
38
Industry Risk Reward Index
39
Turkey - Risk/Reward Index
39
Turkey Upstream Index
39
Turkey Downstream Index
39
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
40
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
41
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
44
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
46
Market Overview
48
Turkey Energy Market Overview
48
Regulatory Structure
48
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: Turkey - Upstream Tax Regime
49
Licensing Regime
49
Table: Turkey - Contracts and Licensing Regime
49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
50
Oil Refineries
50
Table: Oil Refineries In Turkey
50
Service Stations
51
Oil Terminals/Ports
51
Oil Pipelines
51
LNG Terminals
52
Table: LNG Terminals In Turkey
52
Gas Pipelines
52
Gas Storage
54
Competitive Landscape
55
Competitive Landscape Summary
55
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Oil & Gas Sector
56
Table: Key Upstream Players
56
Company Profile
57
T-rkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO)
57
Table: Table: Major Upstream Assets In Turkey
58
Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (T-pras)
59
Table: Key Assets
60
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn
60
Regional Overview
61
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
61
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
61
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
62
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
63
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent
64
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
65
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
66
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
67
Glossary
69
Table: Glossary Of Terms
69
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Source
73
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Table: Weighting
76

The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.