BMI View: Turkey will continue to increase its consumption of crude oil, natural gas and refined fuels throughout our medium-term forecast period to 2020 , remaining a net importer of all three. Positive exploration results in the Thrace Basin present upside risk to our gas production forecast.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, Tupras, EPDK, JODI, EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||48.8||48.5||47.8||46.8||45.5||44.2||42.9|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||451.8||478.0||479.0||480.0||574.7||653.8||665.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||782.1||819.9||837.9||859.9||884.8||930.8||972.1|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||0.5||0.5||0.5||0.6||0.6||0.6||0.6|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||48.7||48.0||48.2||48.9||50.1||51.4||52.8|
The main trends and developments we highlight for Turkey's oil and gas sector are:
We have upgraded our refined fuels consumption forecast for Turkey on the back of a significant expansion in airport capacity boosting jet fuel demand and strong construction growth driving up diesel demand. We expect Turkey to consume 1.04mn barrels per day (b/d) of refined fuels by 2025, a 174,000 b/d increase from our original forecast of 870,000 b/d. The bulk of this increase has come from the inclusion of the Istanbul New Airport into our forecast, which in its first phase will have a capacity of 90mn people annually and reaching up to 200mn people per year in the second phase. Upon completion the airport will be the largest in Europe and will considerably boost demand of jet fuel as Turkey looks to grow its role as a global aviation hub, competing with the likes of the UAE for east-west airline traffic .
Statoil has gained access to the deeper formations of Valeura's Banarli licences, allowing the Norwegian company to target the potential below 2,500m.
We have revised up our gas production forecast based on the inclusion of Condor Petroleum's Poyraz Ridge field which we expect to come online by mid-2017. The field will produce 15 MMscf/day via a gas processing facility.
The failed coup in July has not altered SOCAR's investment plans for Turkey, committing to getting the Star refinery online by 2018. By catering to the domestic deficit in diesel and jet fuel, the Star refinery will be Europe's only newly built facility in the next five years.
The Turkey Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkey including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Turkey Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkish oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkey to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.