BMI View: Turley will remain one of the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe for both healthcare expenditure and pharmaceutical sales, boosted by a growing and ageing population with a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases. A poor regulatory environment, intellectual property protection issues and continued geopolitical risks with its neighbours will weigh down on growth potential.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: TRY20.81bn (USD7.64bn) in 2015 to TRY22.98bn (USD7.76bn) in 2016; +10.5% in local currency and 1.6% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
Healthcare: TRY106.56bn (USD39.13bn) in 2015 to TRY119.52bn (USD40.38bn) in 2016; 12.2% in local currency and 3.2% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: Association of Research Based Pharmaceutical Companies (AiFD), World Health Organization (WHO), BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.560||7.640||7.760||7.920||8.280||8.410||8.540|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.07||1.07||1.06||1.05||1.05||1.05||1.06|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.8||19.5||19.2||18.9||18.7||18.5||18.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||43.310||39.130||40.380||41.830||44.310||45.610||46.810|
In BMI's Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Turkey is ranked 12th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with a downgraded score of 51.9 compared with the previous quarter (54.3). Turkey now scores below the regional average score of 52.4. The country's overall Rewards score of 33.8 is higher than the regional average (33.2) despite a lower-than-average County Rewards score thanks to its large total market size and long-term growth potential. Its overall score is limited by below regional-average scores for both Industry and Country Risks, attributable to its continued poor regulatory environment.
In September 2016, Abdi Ibrahim brought forward two investments worth USD115mn, originally planned for 2017, to complete its new oncology and sterile injectable products production facility.
Highlighting the potential for growth within the private healthcare market, in June 2016 the healthcare firm Medical Park announced it will open seven more hospitals by the end of 2017, with an investment of around USD200mn.
BMI Economic View
The attempted coup in Turkey in July will reinforce several negative trends that have been undermining the business and investment climate in recent years, while policies being pursued by the government will exacerbate the country's main structural macroeconomic imbalances. With external headwinds also rising in light of slower EU growth, we remain below consensus in our real GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017.
BMI Political View
Turkey is likely to move in a more authoritarian direction over the next few years, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tightens his grip on power following the failed military coup in July 2016. Meanwhile, Turkey will face rising security risks from Islamic State and Kurdish separatist groups. In terms of foreign policy, we expect Turkey to drift further away from the West in favour of closer ties with its eastern neighbours.
The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.