BMI View: Turley will remain one of the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe for both healthcare expenditure and pharmaceutical sales, boosted by a growing and ageing population with a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases. A poor regulatory environment, intellectual property protection issues and continued geopolitical risks with its neighbours will weigh down on growth potential.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: TRY20.81bn (USD7.64bn) in 2015 to TRY22.82bn (USD7.71bn) in 2016; +9.7% in local currency and 0.9% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in local curren cy and up in US dollars compared with previous quarter due to revised exchange rate expectations.
Healthcare: TRY106.88bn (USD39.24bn) in 2015 to TRY119.68bn (USD40.43bn) in 2016; 12.0% in local currency and 3.0% US dollar terms. Forecast revised up due to latest data and revised exchange rate expectations.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.560||7.640||7.710||8.050||8.290||8.510||8.710|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.07||1.07||1.05||1.06||1.06||1.07||1.08|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.8||19.5||19.1||19.0||18.9||18.8||18.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||43.320||39.240||40.430||42.450||43.960||45.350||46.600|
In BMI's Q316 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) Turkey is ranked 10th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with a downgraded score of 54.3 compared with the previous quarter (55.9). Turkey scores above the regional average score of 52.2 in Q216. The country's overall Rewards score of 336.2 is considerably higher than the regional average (33.0) despite a lower-than-average County Rewards score, due to its large total market size and long-term growth potential. Its overall score is limited by below regional-average scores for both Industry and Country Risks, due to its continued poor regulatory environment.
In May 2016, Russian drugmaker R-Pharm announced a pause on the construction of a new plant near Istanbul, highlighting currency exchange rates and the unstable political relationship between Turkey and Russia.
In May 2016, the WHO and Ministry of Health released a joint report on healthy nutrition that highlighted Turkey as having the highest salt intake in Europe, as well as being the largest consumer of sugary drinks and user of trans fats.
In April 2016, French pharmaceutical manufacturer Servier announced its intentions to move some of its drug production operations to Turkey from France and Ireland, equal to 97% of its sales it Turkey.
BMI Economic View
We remain moderately below consensus in our Turkish real GDP growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 due to significant risks facing the economy from monetary easing, external deficits and excessive private sector leverage. Growth remains driven primarily by domestic consumption, which will contribute to a reversal of recent external rebalancing as commodity prices rebound.
BMI Political View
The resignation of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will not significantly change the balance of power or broad trajectory of Turkish politics, with ultimate authority remaining with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The move does underscore Turkey's drift towards authoritarianism, however, which has negative implications for financial markets and growth.
The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.