Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 June 2015

  • 126 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Turkey's pharmaceutical and healthcare markets will continue to grow over the long term due to underlying fundamentals driving demand for healthcare services, its population dynamics, increasing urban migration and the burden of disease in the country . In contrast to European markets where manufacturers can expect to achieve higher prices, but with a stagnant growth outlook, Turkey offers strong growth potential if drugmakers are able to accept prices that are considerably below the European average and turn a profit on the low margins available.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: TRY18.72bn (USD8.56bn) in 2014 to TRY20.66bn (USD7.80bn) in 2015; +10.3% in local currency and -8.9% US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: TRY96.01bn (USD43.89bn) in 2014 to TRY105.98bn (USD39.99bn) in 2015; +10.4% in local currency and -8.9% US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Turkey's pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index score for Q315 is 49.9, down from a score of 55.9 in the previous quarter. The country is ranked the tenth most attractive business environment out of the 20 markets surveyed in Emerging Europe. Turkey's large drug market, coupled with the sector's long-term growth potential, means the country scores higher than the average for the region on this indicator, albeit by a smaller margin than in previous quarters on the back of a downward revision to the growth potential of the pharmaceutical market. In terms of risks, several rounds of pricing reforms mean the country scores less favourably, and below the regional average for this indicator.

Key Trends And Developments

  • BMI has revised its healthcare expenditure forecast for the Turkey following the recent release of confirmed data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and incorporation of the latest macroeconomic data. Spending on healthcare is now expected to increase from TRY96.01bn (USD43.89bn) in 2014 to TRY212.61bn (USD63.00bn) in 2024.

  • In April 2015, German drugmaker Boehringer Ingelheim...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
27
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2011-2019)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2019)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Turkey 2013-2019)
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Table: Economic Activity (Turkey 2010-2019)
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
43
Turkey Risk/Reward Index
49
Rewards
49
Risks
50
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Sector
55
Healthcare Insurance
55
Healthcare Infrastructure
56
Healthcare Financing
58
Table: Healthcare Resources (Turkey 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Turkey 2009-2014)
59
Table: Healthcare Activity (Turkey 2009-2014)
60
Research & Development
60
Clinical Trials
62
Regulatory Development
64
Intellectual Property Regime
65
Market Access Issues
68
Pricing Regime
70
Table: Turkish Pharmaceutical Pricing Decrees
71
Reimbursement Regime
72
Table: Pharmacist Discount Related To Annual Sales Revenue (VAT Excluded)
74
Competitive Landscape
75
Pharmaceutical Sector
75
Research-Based Industry
76
Generic Drugmakers
77
Company Activity
77
Pharmaceutical Distribution
78
Pharmaceutical Retail
79
Company Profile
81
Abdi -brahim
81
Bayer
85
EastPharma (Deva)
87
Eczaciba-i Healthcare
90
GlaxoSmithKline
93
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals
96
Novartis
100
Pfizer
102
Roche
105
Sanofi
108
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals
111
Demographic Forecast
114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025)
115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025)
115
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025)
116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025)
117
Glossary
119
Methodology
121
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
121
Notes On Methodology
122
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
123
Index Overview
124
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
124
Indicator Weightings
125

The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc