Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: Turley will remain one of the largest markets in Central and Eastern Europe for both healthcare expenditure and pharmaceutical sales, boosted by a growing and ageing population with a high prevalence of non-communicable diseases. A poor regulatory environment, intellectual property protection issues and continued geopolitical risks with its neighbours will weigh down on growth potential.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: TRY20.81bn (USD7.64bn) in 2015 to TRY22.98bn (USD7.76bn) in 2016; +10.5% in local currency and 1.6% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: TRY106.56bn (USD39.13bn) in 2015 to TRY119.52bn (USD40.38bn) in 2016; 12.2% in local currency and 3.2% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: Association of Research Based Pharmaceutical Companies (AiFD), World Health Organization (WHO), BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 8.560 7.640 7.760 7.920 8.280 8.410 8.540
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.06
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 19.8 19.5 19.2 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.2
Health spending, USDbn 43.310 39.130 40.380 41.830 44.310 45.610 46.810

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q416 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), Turkey is ranked 12th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) matrix with a downgraded score of 51.9 compared with the previous quarter (54.3). Turkey now scores below the regional average score of 52.4. The country's overall Rewards score of 33.8 is higher than the regional average (33.2) despite a lower-than-average County Rewards score thanks to its large total market size and long-term growth potential. Its overall score is limited by below regional-average scores for both Industry and Country Risks, attributable to its continued poor regulatory environment.

Latest Updates

  • In September 2016, Abdi Ibrahim brought forward two investments worth USD115mn, originally planned for 2017, to complete its new oncology and sterile injectable products production facility.

  • Highlighting the potential for growth within the private healthcare market, in June 2016 the healthcare firm Medical Park announced it will open seven more hospitals by the end of 2017, with an investment of around USD200mn.

BMI Economic View

The attempted coup in Turkey in July will reinforce several negative trends that have been undermining the business and investment climate in recent years, while policies being pursued by the government will exacerbate the country's main structural macroeconomic imbalances. With external headwinds also rising in light of slower EU growth, we remain below consensus in our real GDP growth forecasts for both 2016 and 2017.

BMI Political View

Turkey is likely to move in a more authoritarian direction over the next few years, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tightens his grip on power following the failed military coup in July 2016. Meanwhile, Turkey will face rising security risks from Islamic State and Kurdish separatist groups. In terms of foreign policy, we expect Turkey to drift further away from the West in favour of closer ties with its eastern neighbours.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2020)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2020)
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Turkey 2014-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
Turkey Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Issues
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Table: Healthcare Resources (Turkey 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Turkey 2010-2015)
Table: Healthcare Activity (Turkey 2010-2015)
Research & Development
Clinical Trials
Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Sector
Research-Based Industry
Generic Drugmakers
Table: Multinational Market Activity
Pharmaceutical Distribution
Pharmaceutical Retail
Company Profile
Abdi -brahim
EastPharma (Deva)
Eczaciba-i Healthcare
Mustafa Nevzat Ilac Sanayi (MN) Pharmaceuticals
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.