BMI View: A strong health care sector and more certain drug pricing policy will drive pharmaceutical sales in value terms over the next 10 years and improve the commercial opportunities for pharmaceutical manufacturers. Despite this positive development, cost containment measures will remain a risk, as will the political situation with neighbouring Syria and nearby Russia .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: TRY20.81bn (USD7.64bn) in 2015 to TRY23.21bn (USD7.54bn) in 2016; +11.5% in local currency and -1.4% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in local curren cy and up in US dollars compared with previous quarter due to revised exchange rate expectations.
Healthcare: TRY107.17bn (USD39.38bn) in 2015 to TRY120.16bn (USD39.01bn) in 2016; +2.7% in local currency and -0.9% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in local currency and up in US dollars compared with previous quarter due to revised exchange rate expectations.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||8.560||7.622||7.528||7.834||8.451||9.175||9.948|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.07||1.07||1.07||1.08||1.08||1.09||1.10|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.5||19.4||19.4||19.4||19.4||19.4||19.4|
|Health spending, USDbn||43.788||39.258||38.738||40.305||43.495||47.267||51.334|
In BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Turkey is ranked 10th out of the 20 markets in the Central and Eastern European matrix with an improved score of 55.9 compared with the previous quarter (52.6). Turkey scores slightly above the regional average score of 52.6 in Q216. The country's overall Rewards score of 37.4 is considerably higher than the regional average (33.2) despite a lower-than-average Country Rewards due to its large total market size and long-term growth potential. Its overall score is limited by below-regional-average scores for both Industry and Country Risks, due to its continued poor regulatory environment.
Key Trends and Developments
In March 2016, it was announced that Indian drugmaker Dr Reddy's had partnered with Turkish TR-Pharma to manufacture biosimilar pharmaceuticals for the Turkish market.
In February 2016, it was announced that cancer treatment medicines for patients diagnosed with lung cancer would not be funded by Turkey's social security institution (SGK) if the patient has a smoking habit.
In January 2016, the Economic Coordination Council (EKK) announced increases to low-cost medicines which will see an increase of between 10-20%. This is expected to impact the prices of around 4,000 medicines .
BMI Economic View
Turkey will remain on a volatile growth trajectory, with average real growth rates slowing to 3.2% in the next decade, from 5.0% in 2003-2013. Higher spending commitments following the 2015 general election, and overly optimistic official growth forecasts, will see Turkey's budget deficit widen to 2.1% and 2.0% of GDP in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Public debt will remain anchored at relatively low levels in the coming years, although waning economic policy credibility will keep upward pressure on borrowing costs and begin to erode the government's traditionally strong fiscal buffers.
BMI Political View
Russia's intervention in Syria has dealt a devastating blow to Turkey's foreign policy goals and raised the risk of a military confrontation between the two states. On the domestic front, violence between the Turkish government and PKK shows no signs of abating and we see growing risks of fresh elections as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to bolster his party's majority and pursue constitutional reforms to strengthen the power of the executive office.
The Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Turkey Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Turkey, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.