Turkey Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Turkey Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: This quarter our core assumptions for the sector remain largely unchanged. We continue to expect Turke y to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE region this quarter and foresee p ower demand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels of investment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improving economic outlook . T here is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive for greater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance on imports of natural gas through expanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourced coal leading the way. Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position.

Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, national sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 267.980 280.380 295.500 310.510 326.290 342.620 359.170
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 226.3 239.2 252.2 265.1 280.7 296.7 311.3
Capacity, Net, MW 75,076.7 79,703.7 83,783.3 87,642.6 91,320.6 95,476.0 99,124.3

Key Trends And Developments

  • We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period. While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation to hydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2025 we expect gas to account for 40.14% of total electricity generation (as opposed to 45.78% in 2015), coal to account for 24.76%, hydropower to account for 18.77% and non-hydro renewables to generate 11.70% of all electricity.

  • Natural gas will remain the predominant source of electricity in the Turkish power mix over our 10-year forecast period to 2025. The renegotiation of contracts to offset lira weakness - with contracts denominated in USD - and additional imports coming, highlight the fuel's continued importance in the mix. This view is strengthened by the fact there is significant gas infrastructure already in place - both pipeline interconnections and generation capacity - and the fall in gas prices, which in Turkey's case are closely indexed to the oil price.

  • High power consumption growth rates, coupled with aims to lower reliance on imported natural gas, will mean that the country will aim to increase electricity trading with Eastern Europe and Eurasia as a part of broader power supply diversification strategy. In order to facilitate such plans, the Turkish government will focus efforts on improving a highly inefficient grid infrastructure, with smart grid deployment being crucial to improving transmission & distribution (T&D) performance. While we maintain our positive outlook for Turkey's renewables segment, we do not believe the sector alone can rebalance the country's power mix. We expect the government to meet its target of generating 30% of electricity from hydropower and non-hydro renewables sources (wind, solar, biomass and geothermal) by 2023, with our forecasts projecting 22% (hydro) and 12% (non-hydro) being generated by that year. On the other hand, lower capacity factors for non-hydro renewables and the risk of drought - which would limit hydropower output - suggest the sector will be unable to contribute a greater proportion of the power mix by the end of our forecast period.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Turkey Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2015-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2020-2025)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario
12
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction
13
A Combustible Mix
14
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
14
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast
16
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
20
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
22
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
25
Electricity Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
28
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
28
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
29
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index
35
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Regulation And Competition
38
Sustainable Energy Policies
40
Pricing
42
Turkey Power Projects Database
43
Table: Major Projects - Power
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Regional Overview
47
CEE Power Regional Overview
47
Glossary
54
Table: Glossary Of Terms
54
Methodology
55
Methodology And Sources
55
Industry Forecast Methodology
55
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
60

The Turkey Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Turkey Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Turkey's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).