Turkey Power Report

Published 18 June 2015

  • 62 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Turkey Power Report

BMI View: We continue to expect Turkey's position in the region as a key power market to become increasingly more important over the coming decade, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the CEE's total capacity by 2024 . We foresee P ower demand in Turkey to be robust over the coming decade, given the high levels of investment being channelled into its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improving economic outlook . T here is also considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive for greater energy security and to lessen its reliance on its import-heavy thermal electricity generation mix, which has already played a fundamental role in deepening Turkey's current account deficit.

Yet, while the outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precarious economic and political position. The need to reduce its reliance on foreign capital, narrow external deficits and rebalance away from private consumption towards more domestic saving and investment will necessitate a period of slower trend growth. Although the government and central bank have clearly demonstrated an aversion to allowing rebalancing to play out through lower GDP growth rates in the medium term, we believe this is simply delaying the inevitable. Risks of a more pronounced and rapid fall in headline growth remain high in light of the deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook for emerging markets that has seen investor confidence suffer and capital inflows dry up. As it stands, our country risk team forecast real GDP growth to be significantly slower over the next few years than the 9.0% average reading recorded in 2010-2011.

That said, we are retaining a cautious, but positive long-term view on the sector, based on the fact that finding a solution to existing energy-related imbalances is central to the performance of the country's wider economy, making reform and new...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Turkey Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
16
Electricity Consumption
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
26
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
27
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2013-2018)
27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2019-2024)
27
Industry Risk/Reward Index
29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index
29
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation And Competition
37
Sustainable Energy Policies
39
Pricing
40
Turkey Power Projects Database
42
Table: Major Projects - Power
42
Competitive Landscape
46
Regional Overview
48
CEE Power Regional Overview
48
Glossary
53
Table: Glossary Of Terms
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sources
57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Turkey Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Turkey Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Turkey's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Turkey.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc