Turkey Renewables Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Renewables industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BM's Renewables Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Business Environment Rankings and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts to test other views
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
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Turkey Renewables Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Turkey will remain a frontrunner in the European renewables segment over the next decade, as subsidy cuts in Western Europe coupled with strong government support in Turkey, in form of feed-in-tariffs and ambitious 2023 capacity targets will continue to be conducive to investor interest. Relative policy clarity under the new majority AKP government, and the political necessity of diversifying the Turkish power mix away from imported natural gas, will add further momentum to the renewables sector over the coming five years.

Turkey - Headline Renewables Forecasts
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
e/f = estimate/forecast. Sources: EIA, EWEA, BMI.
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh 13.035 15.207 17.604 20.122 22.962 26.370 30.353 35.154 40.433 45.853 51.224
Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y 31.344 16.661 15.763 14.305 14.111 14.843 15.106 15.817 15.016 13.406 11.712
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW 4,440 5,309 6,256 7,253 8,430 9,841 11,383 12,918 14,494 16,138 17,827
Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y 27.1 19.6 17.8 15.9 16.2 16.7 15.7 13.5 12.2 11.3 10.5

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • The November 1, 2015 snap election, after the Justice And Development party (AKP) failed to establish a government after the June election, saw the AKP win a parliamentary majority with 316 out of 550 seats. This is the 'Goldilocks' scenario our Country Risk Team outlined prior to the June 7, 2015 general election, as it avoids the instability of coalition governance while keeping in check President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambition to empower the executive office under a new constitution. This result is bullish for Turkish financial markets and offers the best hope for a rapid rebound in economic growth momentum in the coming quarters, as greater political clarity eases investor uncertainty. That said, the country will now operate under a de facto presidential system with Erdogan at the helm, entrenching a shift towards greater authoritarian tendencies that will come at the expense of long-term growth potential.

  • Turkey remains at the top of our Risk/Reward Index for Central and Eastern Europe due to the large opportunities available to investors relative to the region. With the government aiming to have 27.5GW of cumulative non-hydropower renewables capacity by 2023, consumption growing rapidly (at an annual average of 5.1% between 2016 and 2025) and the country being intent to diversify away from imported hydrocarbons - Turkey will remain the outperformer in the region. This is underscored by the government offering incentives in form of Feed-in-Tariffs to investors developing capacity in the country.

  • The Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority revealed in August 2015 that it will hold an auction in 2016 for 2GW of wind power generation capacity. The government will award licences to developers to build wind parks in the country - with preliminary applications to be submitted between October 3 and October 7, 2016. The 2GW of wind power projects, to be awarded under the auction, are scheduled to be operational by 2020. We note that the last wind auction in May 2015 was oversubscribed by 14 times - with the 3GW of allocated capacity receiving bids totalling 42GW.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Turkey - Headline Renewables Forecasts
7
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Turkey Renewables Forecast Scenario
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
13
Table: Ambitious Renewables Targets
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019)
26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025)
27
Turkey Renewables Projects Database
28
Table: Table: Turkey - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
28
Industry Risk Reward Index
29
Turkey Renewables Risk/Reward Index
29
Rewards
29
Risks
30
Market Overview
31
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
31
Targets
31
Subsidies
33
Infrastructure
35
Competitive Landscape
37
Zorlu Energy Group
37
Aksu Enerji ve Ticaret
37
Vestas Wind Systems
37
Siemens
38
Glossary
39
Table: Glossary Of Terms
39
Methodology
40
Methodology And Sources
40
Industry Forecast Methodology
40
Sources
42
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
42
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
44
Table: Weighting Indicators
45

The Turkey Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Turkey. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Turkey, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Turkey, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Turkey Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkey renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Turkey, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.