BMI View: Turkey will remain an important European non-hydropower renewables growth hotspot over the coming decade, as ambitious diversification plans, strong government support and robust investor interest will remain conducive to sector growth.
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, EWEA, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||14.060||17.040||19.290||21.730||24.560||27.720||31.460|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||20.780||21.210||13.150||12.690||13.020||12.870||13.470|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||5,791.7||7,248.9||8,479.3||9,897.8||11,505.3||13,198.5||14,841.4|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||30.7||25.2||17.0||16.7||16.2||14.7||12.5|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Turkey aims to source 30% of power from renewables by 2023, with another 30% from nuclear power and coal-fired power each. This is a result of the country's heavy reliance on imported natural gas for power generation - with the gas-sector currently comprising 45.2% of total power generation in the country. Given that we have not included any nuclear capacity into our 10-year forecast, due to the Akkuyu power plant project being riddled with uncertainty, and coal failing to boost its share beyond 29% over the same timeframe, non-hydropower renewables will be the driver of such diversification efforts.
Turkey remains at the top of our Risk/Reward Index for Central and Eastern Europe due to the large opportunities available to investors relative to the region. With the government aiming to have 27.5GW of cumulative non-hydropower renewables capacity by 2023, consumption growing rapidly (at an annual average of 5.1% between 2016 and 2025) and the country being intent on diversifying away from imported hydrocarbons - Turkey will remain the outperformer in the region. This is underscored by the government offering incentives in form of feed-in-tariffs and local content incentives to investors developing capacity in the country.
The Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority revealed in August 2015 that it will hold an auction in 2016 for 2GW of wind power generation capacity. The government will award licences to developers to build wind parks in the country - with preliminary applications to be submitted between October 3 and October 7 2016. The 2GW of wind power projects, to be awarded under the auction, are scheduled to be operational by 2020. We note that the last wind auction in May 2015 was oversubscribed by 14 times - with the 3GW of allocated capacity receiving bids totalling 42GW.
Growth in Turkey's solar sector is finally picking up speed, after years of delays for solar capacity licensed in the first 600MW solar capacity auction started in 2013. We currently expect about 500MW of solar capacity to come online over 2016, but note that this is below industry estimates, which expect unlicensed solar capacity to ensure this uptick will be more robust. Given limited insight into the unlicensed solar segment - which comprises projects below 1MW - we maintain our conservative view until more information is available.
The Turkey Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Turkey. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Turkey, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Turkey, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Turkey Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkey renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Turkey, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.