BMI View: Turkey will continue to be a key hotspot for renewables in Europe, due to strong government support in form of ambitious 2023 targets and financial incentives for new capacity developments . While short-term political uncertainty and economic volatility could deter some investors, the government will remain firmly behind renewables expansion plans in order to cut fuel import costs and enhance e nergy security - reinforcing our long-held view that the country will remain a key global renewables market .
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Sources: EIA, EWEA, BMI.|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||13.035||15.207||17.604||20.122||22.962||26.370||30.353||35.154||40.433||45.853||51.224|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||31.344||16.661||15.763||14.305||14.111||14.843||15.106||15.817||15.016||13.406||11.712|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||4,440||5,309||6,256||7,253||8,430||9,841||11,383||12,918||14,494||16,138||17,827|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||27.1||19.6||17.8||15.9||16.2||16.7||15.7||13.5||12.2||11.3||10.5|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) revealed in August 2015 that it will conduct an auction in 2016 for 2GW of wind power generation capacity. The government will award licences to developers to build wind parks in the country. The authority will accept preliminary applications between October 3 2016 and October 7 2016. The 2GW of wind power projects, to be awarded under the auction, are scheduled to be operational by 2020
The last wind auction in May 2015 was oversubscribed by 14 times - with the 3GW of allocated capacity receiving bids totalling 42GW.
A second election in November 2015 - after the AKP failed to establish a government after the June 2015 election - will cloud the Turkish political environment over the next few months.
E.ON announced in its 2014 full year results report that it would limit its investments into Turkey due to a weakening lira (as a part of a strategy to limit exposure to countries with weak and volatile currencies).
In June 2015, Nordex SE reported that it had received orders to build a total 55MW of wind farms in Turkey for ARE Electrick at the Kurtkayasi wind park in Central Anatolia and for Suay Enerji Uretim AS for the Adbuk wind park on the Aegean coast. The rotor blades, anchor cages and towards are produced locally, and will therefore qualify the projects for a higher feed-in-tariff.
In April 2015, French firm Akuo Energy signed a USD100mn financing deal with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to build a 77.5MW wind park in central Anatolia region. The IFC will lead and arrange a syndicate of other multilateral agencies or commercial lenders to offer funding for the Baglar RES wind farm. Construction is scheduled to start in July 2015, with commissioning expected in January 2017.
The Turkey Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in Turkey. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Turkey, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Turkey, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Turkey Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkey renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkey renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Turkey, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.