BMI View: There is a mixed picture for Turkish exports in the coming quarters, which could end up having an influence on our shipping forecasts by the end of the year. While eurozone growth momentum is strengthening after a soft patch in H214, external demand from other key markets will continue to suffer. Russia and CIS states together accounted for 12.0% of total exports in 2013 and export growth to this region contracted by 6.5% y-o-y in H214. This contraction will deepen in H115 on the back of a severe recession in Russia and its knock-on effects in neighbouring CIS states. Meanwhile, Iraq is Turkey's second largest export market and sectarian conflict in the country has severely disrupted many trade routes.
In 2015, annual growth across the board at Turkey's main ports is set to be very healthy, with the port of Ambarli forecast to see year-on-year (y-o-y) tonnage growth of 8.50%, while box throughput at the port will come in at a lower rate of 6.42%. Meanwhile, the growth picture at the port of Haydarpasa will be equally impressive with tonnage forecast to increase by 8.07% y-o-y and container throughput by 5.47% in 2015.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Ambarli tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 8.50% to 4.737mn tonnes; over the medium term to 2019, we project average annual growth of 6.76%.
2015 port of Ambarli container throughput is forecast to grow 6.42% to 3.90mn TEUs; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 6.45%.
2015 total trade growth forecast at 4.75%, up from an estimated 3.25% in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
European Bank Considers Funding Aliaga Port Construction - The European Investment Bank (EIB) is considering lending EUR105.2mn (USD130mn) to Turkish firm Petlim Limancilik Ticaret to build a container port in Aliaga, Turkey. The proposed loan seeks to support maritime freight transport as a substitute to other transport modes and will therefore contribute to transport sustainability, according to a an...
The Turkey Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Turkey.
BMI's Turkey Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Turkey.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Turkey to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkish shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Turkey through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.