Another Year of Growth In Turkey's Main Ports
We are forecasting good single-digit percentage growth rates in Turkey's main ports in 2015, although the largest, the Port of Izmir, held back by capacity constraints, will see somewhat lower growth, in the 2%-3% range. The strongest increases will be experienced at the ports of Ambarli and Haydarpasa.
Turkey's economic outlook was encouraging at the beginning of 2015. Two developments augured well. First, monetary stimulus in Japan and Europe, despite expectations of a tightening stance by the US Federal Reserve, was positive for Turkey, given that its externally-leveraged economy is very sensitive to changes in global liquidity conditions. Second, falling oil prices - down by 40% in the second half of 2014, promised to help lower the domestic inflation rate and more importantly, boost net exports. Bearing these factors in mind, BMI is forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. We note however that this rate of growth is slower than the 6% average achieved in 2010-2013, given that we believe the country is undergoing a structural rebalancing process.
Headline Industry Data
2015 port of Ambarli tonnage throughput is forecast to grow 8.5% to 4.737mn tonnes; over the medium term to 2019 we project average annual growth of 6.8%.
2015 port of Ambarli container throughput is forecast to grow 6.8% to 3.91mn TEUs; over the medium term we project annual average growth of 6.5%.
2015 total trade growth forecast at 5.0%, up from an estimated 3.3% in 2014.
Key Industry Trends
APM Terminals Investing In Turkey: Netherlands-based terminal-network company APM Terminals, a subsidiary of AP Moller-Maersk, intends to start a new terminal in Turkey's Marmara region. Reasons for selecting the location include Turkey's 'sizeable' economic growth in contrast with the growth in the rest of Europe and its 'low container penetration ratio'. Without giving any timelines, the company mentioned that it is currently in...