Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We have strongly reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan this quarter on the back of increasingly limited ex port options for the country: Russia and Iran are curtail ing imports and Chinese gas intakes will grow at a slower pace than expected on the back of slowing economic growth. This leaves Turkmenistan increasingly dependent on China, with little credible export market alternatives over the short-to- medium term.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 276.0 289.1 302.9 314.7 326.9 336.7 343.8
Dry natural gas production, bcm 74.0 65.1 62.2 64.1 65.3 68.0 72.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 27.9 28.7 29.3 30.2 31.7 33.2 34.9
Refined products production, 000b/d 172.7 173.6 174.4 176.2 178.0 179.7 181.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 154.1 164.9 174.8 185.2 196.4 208.1 220.6
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 42.50 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00
  • A renewed emphasis on international investment, along with developments by Turkmennebit, has lead to a slow but progressive increase in oil production. This will endure over the coming years. Larger production growth within our forecast period, however, is unlikely until a sustainable agreement is reached between Iran, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on the Caspian maritime border dispute.

  • The difficult business environment could, however, dissuade international investors, notably at a time of capital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA Deutsche Erdoel is reportedly planning to relinquish its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 over frustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.

  • Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production will remain limited by its export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China. With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have substantially reduced our gas production outlook this quarter for Turkmenistan over our 10-year forecast period.

  • Turkmenistan's level of gas consumption will take up an increasing proportion of produced gas as the country's exports stagnate on the back of falling exports to Russia and Iran. As production continues to ramp up, we believe that gas consumption will follow suit although at a slower pace, to increase to 46.72 in 2025 compared with an estimated 28.70 in 2015.

  • Turkmen gas exports will fall for a second successive year in 2016 as Russia and Iran curtail imports. With a negligible chance of establishing new export routes, the country will be increasingly dependent on China and its long-term energy demand.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
17
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
21
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
21
Refining
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
28
Gas Consumption
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
30
Trade - Oil
31
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
33
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
35
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
37
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
38
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
39
Upstream: China Still The Target Market
39
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
42
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
47
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
47
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
50
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
50
Table: Upstream Projects
52
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
Oil Pipelines
55
Gas Pipelines
55
Table: TAPI Timeline
61
Competitive Landscape
64
Competitive Landscape
64
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
65
Table: Key Upstream Players
65
Table: Downstream Players
65
Company Profile
66
Eni
66
ENOC/Dragon Oil
69
Other Summaries
74
Regional Overview
77
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
77
Oil Production: Caspian Remains Centre Of Growth
77
Oil Consumption: Fuels Demand Gradually Strengthening
78
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Over Capacity Additions
79
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up To Feed Red Dragon
80
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
81
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
82
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
83
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Source
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
91
Table: Weighting
92

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.