Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 118 pages
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$1,295.00
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves , Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production. With relatively small domestic consumption , Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gas exports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year , meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 255.2 267.4 280.2 293.6 305.0 316.9 326.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 64.5 68.5 74.2 81.1 87.9 95.9 103.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 22.0 23.4 25.2 27.0 28.9 30.9 32.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 152.7 153.4 155.0 156.5 158.1 159.7 161.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 132.4 141.6 151.5 160.6 170.3 180.5 191.3

The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Turkmenistan's state information agency reported an 11.2% increase in gas production in 2014, which is higher than what BMI currently estimates; it is likely that we will upgrade our gas production profile once the production figures can be confirmed.

  • The costs of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project are likely to exceed USD7.6bn, according to India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The TAPI pipeline project is estimated to be 1,814km long, while the project implementation is expected to begin in 2015. Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmengaz,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
8
Oil & Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
25
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
36
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index
36
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
37
Caspian Retains Upstream Indices Lead
37
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Sanctions Hit
40
Regional Minnows Breaking Through
41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
42
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Market Overview
47
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
47
Overview/State Role
49
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
50
International Energy Relations
50
Table: Upstream Projects
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
54
Oil Pipelines
55
Gas Pipelines
55
Table: TAPI Timeline
60
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape
63
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
64
Table: Key Upstream Players
64
Table: Downstream Players
64
Company Profile
65
Eni
65
Dragon Oil
68
Other Summaries
72
Regional Overview
75
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Overview
75
CEE Oil Production - Russia Dominates, Caspian To Lead Growth
75
CEE Oil Consumption - Regional Demand Growth Outpacing Supply
76
CEE Refining Capacity - Few Bright Spots
77
CEE Natural Gas Production - Caspian Gas Firing Up China
78
CEE Gas Consumption - New Gas Targeting Exports
79
Global Industry Overview
81
Table: Key US Production Zones Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
83
Table: Canadian Oil Sands Average Full Cycle Breakeven Cost Per Barrel (USD/bbl)
84
Table: Middle East Onshore Conventional Breakeven Cost Per Barrel, (USD/BBL)
85
Table: Average Fiscal Breakeven Prices Of Key Middle East Producers 2014 (USD/bbl)
85
Appendix
87
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts ( Global 2012-2017)
87
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2018-2023)
88
Turkmenistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
90
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
90
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
90
Turkmenistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
92
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
93
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
94
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
95
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2012-2017)
96
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2018-2023)
97
Glossary
99
Table: Glossary Of Terms
99
Methodology
101
Industry Forecast Methodology
101
Source
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
105
Table: Weighting
106

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc