Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 118 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves , Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production. With relatively small domestic consumption , Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gas exports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year , meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 255.2 267.4 280.2 293.6 305.0 316.9 326.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 64.5 68.5 74.2 81.1 87.9 95.9 103.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 22.0 23.4 25.2 27.0 28.9 30.9 32.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 152.7 153.4 155.0 156.5 158.1 159.7 161.2
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 132.4 141.6 151.5 160.6 170.3 180.5 191.3

The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:

  • Turkmenistan's state information agency reported an 11.2% increase in gas production in 2014, which is higher than what BMI currently estimates; it is likely that we will upgrade our gas production profile once the production figures can be confirmed.

  • The costs of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project are likely to exceed USD7.6bn, according to India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The TAPI pipeline project is estimated to be 1,814km long, while the project implementation is expected to begin in 2015. Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmengaz,...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
14
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
18
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuels Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
25
Gas Consumption
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
27
Trade - Oil
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
29
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
31
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
35
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
37
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
38
Upstream: Sending Gas To China
38
Regional Minnows Holding Up
40
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
41
Downstream: Turkish Star Shines In Weak Market
41
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index
44
Market Overview
46
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
46
Overview/State Role
48
Licensing And Regulation
49
Government Policy
49
International Energy Relations
49
Table: Upstream Projects
51
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Oil Storage Facilities
53
Oil Terminals/Ports
54
Oil Pipelines
54
Gas Pipelines
54
Table: TAPI Timeline
60
Regional Overview
63
Central and Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
63
Oil Production: Caspian Leads Growth
63
Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
64
Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
65
Natural Gas Production: Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
66
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
67
Competitive Landscape
69
Competitive Landscape
69
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
70
Table: Key Upstream Players
70
Table: Downstream Players
70
Company Profile
71
Eni
71
Dragon Oil
74
Other Summaries
80
Global Industry Overview
83
Oil Price Outlook
83
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
83
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
84
Appendix
91
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
91
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
91
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
92
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
98
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
99
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
100
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
101
Turkmenistan - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
102
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
102
Turkmenistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
104
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
105
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
106
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
107
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2013-2018)
108
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Turkmenistan 2019-2024)
109
Glossary
111
Table: Glossary Of Terms
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Source
115
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
117
Table: Weighting
118

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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