BMI View: As a result of its growing gas reserves , Turkmenistan is making efforts to also increase production. With relatively small domestic consumption , Turkmenistan is also likely to increase its gas exports. Our forecast for gas production to reach 103.5bcm per annum by 2019 implies an average growth rate of 8.2% a year , meanwhile gas exports will increase from 49bcm in 2015 to 70.8bcm in 2019. The country's rising export potential is supported by significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, as well as likely lifting of sanctions from Iran.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI/EIA|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||255.2||267.4||280.2||293.6||305.0||316.9||326.4|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||64.5||68.5||74.2||81.1||87.9||95.9||103.5|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||22.0||23.4||25.2||27.0||28.9||30.9||32.8|
|Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d||152.7||153.4||155.0||156.5||158.1||159.7||161.2|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||132.4||141.6||151.5||160.6||170.3||180.5||191.3|
The main trends and developments in Turkmenistan's oil and gas sector are:
Turkmenistan's state information agency reported an 11.2% increase in gas production in 2014, this has also given upside to our forecasts. The costs of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project are likely to exceed USD7.6bn, according to India's Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. The TAPI pipeline project is estimated to be 1,814km long, while the project implementation is expected to begin in 2015. Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmengaz, Afghanistan's Gas Corporation, Pakistan's Inter State Gas Systems and Gas Authority of India Limited (GAIL) have recently established th e TAPI Limited operating com pany, which will own the pipeline in the future.The pipeline is like ly to export up to 33bn cbm of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India over 30 years of operation. The pipeline will help Turkmenistan expand gas exports.
Turkmenistan's oil production reportedly increased 7.8% over the first half of 2015, compared to the same period in 2015.
The National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) announced in late September 2014 that it would increase gas imports from Turkmenistan beginning in October 2014. The country had previously sent mixed messages regarding gas imports from Turkmenistan as it continues to attempt to boost domestic gas production. While it was expected that Iran would continue to require gas exports from Turkmenistan, the news reduces the near-term risk of a collapse in exports to one of the country's main export destinations. A reduction in exports to Iran would make Turkmenistan considerably more dependent on China, which is already by far the country's largest export market.
Iran is also considering a USD30bn gas-for-goods barter deal with Turkmenistan, it was reported in June 2015. Under the proposed system, Tehran plans to pay Ashgabat for natural gas imports by offering gas industry equipment as well as technical services. Iran has made preparations on its part towards the implementation of the scheme, noted Mohammad-Taqi Amanpour, an advisor to the petroleum minister, on exports of equipment and technical services