Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : Turkmenistan's actual gas production will remain limited by its limited export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas and with other large-scale exports (notably TAPI) unlikely to materialise over our 10- year forecast period, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China.

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Sources: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 275.7 262.1 256.3 252.9 251.8 255.0 260.5
Refined products production, 000b/d 172.8 181.5 176.0 172.5 170.8 171.0 171.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 154.1 164.9 174.8 185.2 196.4 208.1 220.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 71.8 67.2 63.1 65.0 66.3 69.0 73.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 24.7 25.5 26.0 26.8 28.1 29.5 31.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • The difficult business environment will dissuade several international investors from entering the market, notably at a time of capital expenditure cut backs as oil prices remain low. For example, German company DEA Deutsche Erdoel relinquished its Caspian Sea concession as of October 2015 over frustration at excess bureaucracy, corruption and a lack of permit granting.

  • Despite its large gas production potential, Turkmenistan's actual production will remain limited by its export options. With Russia and Iran increasingly reducing imports of Turkmen gas, the country's production will remain almost entirely dependent on domestic consumption growth and export levels to China. With economic slowdown in China and Russia quitting Turkmen gas imports, we have recently reduced our gas production outlook for Turkmenistan over our 10-year forecast period.

  • This quarter, we have further reduced historical gas production levels over 2013-2015 on the back of historical revisions in the data. This has an impact on our gas production forecast over the forecast period. Turkmenistan's level of gas consumption will take up an increasing proportion of produced gas as the country's exports stagnate on the back of falling exports to Russia and Iran. As production continues to ramp up, we believe that gas consumption will follow suit, although at a slower pace, to 41.4bcm in 2025 compared with an estimated 25.5bcm in 2015.

  • Turkmen gas exports will fall for a second successive year in 2016 as Russia and Iran curtail imports. With a negligible chance of establishing new export routes, the country's gas exports will be almost entirely dependent on China and its long-term energy demand.

  • The Iranian gas export market will likely disappear entirely by 2020. The country is planning the construction of the IGAT-11 pipeline, targeting Iran's north east, where a lack of domestic pipeline capacity forces gas imports from Turkmenistan over the winter months. In 2015, Iran imported a net 6.7bcm of gas from Turkmenistan, which will be unnecessary once the pipeline is completed.

  • The TAPI pipeline will not be completed within our 10-year forecast due to a lack of funding, security challenges, and growing gas supply competition from Iran and LNG. This further limits options for Turkmenistan's gas export diversification efforts and puts into doubt upside risk to gas production over the forecast period.

  • Turkmenistan completed the USD2.5bn East-West pipeline on December 23. The pipeline connects Galkynysh and other fields in the east of the country to its Caspian coast, from where a proposed Trans-Caspian link could deliver gas to Azerbaijan and then to Europe. 'With the completion of East-West, cooperation with our European partners acquires new meaning,' President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said. The 773km East-West link, which has a capacity of 30bn cubic metres a year, could also feed a proposed pipeline going along the coast through Kazakhstan to Russia.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Turkmenistan Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
13
Latest Updates
13
Structural Trends
13
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
22
Table: Gas Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
22
Refining
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
26
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
26
Refined Fuels Consumption
27
Latest Updates
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
29
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
32
Table: Gas Consumption (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
32
Trade - Oil
33
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2020)
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
35
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
35
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
TAPI Stuck As Iran, LNG Provide Options
40
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2014-2019)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Turkmenistan 2020-2025)
44
Industry Risk Reward Index
45
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
45
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Indices
46
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
49
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market
49
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
52
Turkmenistan - Risk/Reward Index
53
Upstream Index
53
Downstream Index
53
Market Overview
55
Turkmenistan Energy Market Overview
55
Table: Upstream Projects
56
Oil & Gas Infrastructure
57
Oil Refineries
57
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
Gas Pipelines
58
Competitive Landscape
66
Competitive Landscape
66
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies
67
Table: Key Upstream Players
67
Table: Downstream Players
67
Company Profile
68
Turkmengaz
68
Latest Updates
68
Table: Major Upstream Asset in Turkmenistan
69
Regional Overview
70
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
70
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices
70
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles
71
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing
72
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand-Dependent
73
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
74
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies
75
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Production & Consumption, Refining Capacity & Trade
76
Glossary
77
Table: Glossary Of Terms
77
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Source
81
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
81
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
83
Table: Weighting
84

The Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Turkmenistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Turkmenistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Turkmen oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Turkmenistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Turkmen oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Turkmen oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Turkmenistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.