Uganda Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Uganda Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Uganda's real GDP growth will slow in 2016 as elevated inflation weighs on private consumption and rising capital goods imports widen the goods trade deficit. However, the economy will rebound modestly in 2017, on the back of robust fixed investment and monetary easing.

  • Uganda's Ministry of Finance will miss its target of a 6.4% of GDP deficit in fiscal year 2016/17. We forecast a wider deficit of 6.8%, predicated on heavy infrastructure spending and inefficiencies in the tax system.

  • Further monetary easing over the next two years will stimulate economic growth. However, we expect the Bank of Uganda to remain cautious, therefore we forecast that reversal of last year's tightening cycle will progress into 2017.

  • Uganda will record a current account deficit of 11% of GDP in fiscal year 2016/17 as the continued investment in infrastructure increases demand for capital goods imports. The associated improved trade and transport links in addition to a future oil exploration project mean that the long-term outlook is much more positive.

Key Risks

  • Yoweri Museveni's re-election in Uganda's February presidential election will ensure policy continuity and support the passage of investor-friendly regulations in the years ahead. However, we see rising risks that the leader will attempt to remain in power beyond this term, increasing the potential for widespread social unrest or substantial legislative gridlock.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UBOS, BoU
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.7 5.6 4.8 6.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 27.0 24.8 24.6 25.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.1 8.5 5.3 5.5
Exchange rate UGX/USD, eop 2,765.00 3,800.00 3,700.00 4,000.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.9 -4.4 -5.7 -6.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.5 -10.9 -11.6 -11.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Constrained By Tight Monetary Conditions
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Monetary Policy
11
Monetary Loosening To Commence In Q316
11
Monetary Policy Framework
12
Fiscal And Debt Outlook
13
Planned Spending Cuts Will Not Improve Fiscal Health
13
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
14
Currency Forecast
14
UGX: Slower Pace Of Depreciation In 2016
14
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Ugandan Economy To 2025
17
A Decade Of Promise But Also Of Risk
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Tensions To Rise As Polls Approach
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
21
Political Challenges For Museveni Ahead
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
26
Trade Procedures And Governance
27
TABLE: DOCUMENTS REQUIRED FOR IMPORT AND EXPORT
27
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES
27
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
28
Vulnerability To Crime
30
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Macro Outlook
33
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
33
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
34
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
35
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
37

Assess your risk exposure in Uganda with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Uganda with confidence.

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  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
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