Uganda Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Uganda Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • An ambitious infrastructure spending programme and a failure to rein in recurrent spending will, despite improvement in revenue collection, see Uganda's fiscal balance remain deep in the red over the coming years.

  • Upside inflationary risks and a vulnerable shilling will see the Bank of Uganda keep monetary conditions tight through H116, with increasing consequences for the real economy.

  • The inter-related factors of elevated inflation, FX weakness and higher interest rates will dampen economic activity in Uganda in 2016 and keep economic output below potential. We have revised down our prediction for growth next year to 5.1% from 5.7%.

  • Although President Yoweri Museveni will face little meaningful competition at next February's general election, his efforts to mobilise a disenfranchised electorate and maintain support within his increasingly divided party will be both costly and distracting. The president's popularity and political capital has diminished significantly in recent years but his grip on power remains firm.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 22.8 24.2 21.9 21.7
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.7 1.8 7.5 7.0
Exchange rate UGX/USD, eop 2,527.00 2,765.00 3,800.00 3,700.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.1 -4.4 -5.0 -6.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -7.5 -10.6 -12.4 -13.1
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Limited Regional Contagion From Burundi Unrest
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Political Challenges For Museveni Ahead
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth Revised Down Due To Currency Woes
14
Table: Economic Activity
14
Monetary Policy
16
BoU To Remain Hawkish Well Into 2016
16
Table: Monetary Policy
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Expansionary Budget Speaks To Rising Fiscal Indiscipline
17
Table: Fiscal Policy
18
Banking Sector
19
Next Phase Of MFS In Sub-Saharan Africa Will Be More Challenging
19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Ugandan Economy To 2024
23
A Decade Of Promise, But Also Of Risk
23
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
Table: Operational Risk
26
Table: Sub -Saharan Africa - Market Size And Utilities Risk
28
Tab le: Sub -Saharan Africa - Interstate-Security Risk
32
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
35
Global Outlook
35
Assessing The Aftermath Of Three Key Events
35
Table: Global Assumptions
35
Table: Developed States - Real GDP Growth, %
36
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
36
Table: Emerging Markets - Real GDP Growth , %
37

The Uganda Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Uganda. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Uganda's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Uganda's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Uganda, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Uganda Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Uganda' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Uganda through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Uganda Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Uganda and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Uganda, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Uganda over the next 5-years?

BMI's Uganda country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Uganda Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Uganda.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Uganda's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Uganda’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Uganda's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Uganda?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Uganda against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Uganda’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.