Uganda Country Risk Report

Published 26 August 2015 | Quarterly

  • 42 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,195.00
Uganda Country Risk Report

Core Views

  • Uganda's economy is poised to grow strongly over the next few years, supported by an increasingly buoyant consumer sector and major capital investment projects in the energy and transport sectors.

  • Monetary authorities in Uganda will maintain a hawkish bias over the coming quarters amid continued currency weakness and concerns over a ramp-up in pre-election spending.

  • Although President Yoweri Museveni will face little meaningful competition at next February's general election, his efforts to mobilise a disenfranchised electorate and maintain support within his increasingly divided party will be both costly and distracting. The president's popularity and political capital has diminished significantly in recent years but his grip on power remains firm.

  • Election-related spending pressures will put Uganda's already-stretched public finances under added pressure over the coming quarters. Moreover, with President Museveni declining political capital meaning he has to rely ever more heavily on political patronage to retain control, fiscal indiscipline is likely to remain a salient risk well beyond next year's polls.

Major Forecast Changes

  • No major forecast changes

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Weather always poses risks to our outlook, as the Ugandan economy is heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. Adverse weather conditions could seriously hamper economic output and stoke inflationary pressures, while favourable weather could boost productivity.

  • The ongoing and deepening crisis in South Sudan poses a risk to our forecasts the longer it continues. In addition to heightened border insecurity, the conflict is impacting Uganda's economic ties with its northern neighbour, notably through reduced export demand and supply chain disruption.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 22.8 24.4 23.9 25.5
Real GDP growth,...
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Ruling Party Divided, But Stable For Now
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Political Challenges For Museveni Ahead
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Economy Firmly On The Rebound
14
TABLE: Economic Acti vit y
14
Monetary Policy
15
Monetary Conditions To Remain Tight On Election, Currency Concerns
15
TABLE: Moneta ry Polic y
16
Fiscal Policy
17
Political Patronage A Growing Fiscal Drag
17
TABLE: Fiscal Polic y
17
Banking Sector
18
Recovery Remains On Track
18
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
21
The Ugandan Economy To 2024
21
A Decade Of Promise But Also Of Risk
21
TABLE: Long-Term Mac roec onomic Forecasts
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: Operational Risk
24
Legal Environment
25
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa - Legal Risks
26
Costs Of Labour
29
TABLE: Sub-Saharan Africa - Labour Cost Risk
30
TABLE: Regulations Governing Flexibility Of Workforce
31
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Outlook
33
Emerging Markets Still Slowing
33
Table : Global Assumptions
33
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
34
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
34
Table : Emerging Markets , Real GDP Growth , %
35

The Uganda Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Uganda. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Uganda's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Uganda's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Uganda's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Uganda, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Uganda Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Uganda' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Uganda through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Uganda Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Uganda and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Uganda, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Uganda over the next 5-years?

BMI's Uganda country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Uganda Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Uganda.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for Uganda's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
  • Long-Term Political Outlook BMI examines the structural risks to the stability of Uganda’s political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Uganda's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk

What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in Uganda?

The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks Uganda against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents

The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:

  • Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
  • Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
  • Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
  • Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

The report also drills down in greater depth to address key issues in one of the following segments most critical to the market:

  • Transport network, economic openness, cost and availability of labour, crime risks, bureaucratic environment, market size and utilities, and interstate conflict.
  • Assess your company’s exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI’s insight on the current dangers of operating in the market.
  • Evaluate Uganda’s risk profile against its regional peers, helping you understand the market’s strengths and weaknesses in relation to other countries.

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