Uganda Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Uganda Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Uganda's real GDP growth will slow in 2016 as elevated inflation weighs on private consumption and rising capital goods imports widen the goods trade deficit. However, the economy will rebound modestly in 2017, on the back of robust fixed investment and monetary easing.

  • Uganda's Ministry of Finance will miss its target of a 6.4% of GDP deficit in fiscal year 2016/17. We forecast a wider deficit of 6.8%, predicated on heavy infrastructure spending and inefficiencies in the tax system.

  • Further monetary easing over the next two years will stimulate economic growth. However, we expect the Bank of Uganda to remain cautious, therefore we forecast that reversal of last year's tightening cycle will progress into 2017.

  • Uganda will record a current account deficit of 11% of GDP in fiscal year 2016/17 as the continued investment in infrastructure increases demand for capital goods imports. The associated improved trade and transport links in addition to a future oil exploration project mean that the long-term outlook is much more positive.

Key Risks

  • Yoweri Museveni's re-election in Uganda's February presidential election will ensure policy continuity and support the passage of investor-friendly regulations in the years ahead. However, we see rising risks that the leader will attempt to remain in power beyond this term, increasing the potential for widespread social unrest or substantial legislative gridlock.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, UBOS, BoU
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.7 5.6 4.8 6.0
Nominal GDP, USDbn 27.0 24.8 24.6 25.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.1 8.5 5.3 5.5
Exchange rate UGX/USD, eop 2,765.00 3,800.00 3,700.00 4,000.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.9 -4.4 -5.7 -6.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.5 -10.9 -11.6 -11.7
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Inflation To Dampen 2016 Growth
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal And Public Debt Outlook
10
Deficit To Widen Despite Enhanced Tax Revenues
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
13
Record Infrastructure Spending To Stretch Deficit Further
13
Monetary Policy
14
Focus On Growth Will Lead To Additional Rate Cuts
14
Monetary Policy Framework
15
Currency Forecast
16
UGX: Slower Pace Of Depreciation In 2016
16
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
16
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The Ugandan Economy To 2025
19
A Decade Of Promise But Also Of Risk
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Museveni's Fifth Term To Bring Short-Term Stability
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Political Challenges For Museveni Ahead
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORT PARTNERS & PRODUCT IMPORTS, 2011-2014, USDMN
29
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
30
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
30
Availability Of Labour
34
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
35
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in Uganda with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Uganda with confidence.

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