Uganda Food & Drink Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food & drink industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index, Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Uganda Food & Drink Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2015, driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and by accelerating investment in the infrastructure and extractive sectors. Nevertheless, we have revised downwards our forecast real GDP growth to 5.4% in 2015 and 5.0% in 2016 (from 6.0% in both years). The formal food and drink sector will grow considerably over the coming years, from a low base, as international firms such as The Coca-Cola Company and regional firms such as Shoprite look for fast - growing and underdeveloped regions. However, the rate of urbanisation in Uganda is not increasing in line with the country ' s population growth and this may persuade investors in the formalised retail sector to look elsewhere first.

Credit conditions in Uganda have worsened in recent months, with the Bank of Uganda (BoU) hiking its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 17.00% on 20 October 2015. The move was in line with our expectation that further monetary tightening would be necessary before the end of 2015 in the face of rising inflation expectations and persistent currency weakness. Moreover, with inflation creeping higher on the back of increased food price pressures and the pass-through effects of shilling weakness still filtering through, we think the BoU will continue to keep things tight well into 2016 ( see 'Impact Of Monetary Tightening To Be Felt In 2016', October 21).

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 food consumption growth: +13.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019: +14.9%.

  • 2015 beer value sales growth: +12.7%; CAGR to 2019: +14.2%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth: +28.0%; CAGR to 2019: +28.0%.

Key Industry Developments

RCL Foods Buys HMH Stake: South Africa-based food company RCL Foods announced in August 2015 that it was set to buy a 33.5% interest in Uganda-based poultry producer Hudani Manji Holdings (HMH) in a deal worth USD4.66mn. The acquisition will represent RCL's entry into the East Africa and is likely to create one of the largest processors and marketers of chicken in both Uganda and East Africa, according to the company. HMH produces poultry and feed, marketing its products through the Yo Kuku brand, which supplies fresh and frozen whole chicken, chicken parts, fillet, value-added products and chicken by-products.

Brookside Buys Ugandan Dairy Firm: Kenya-based Brookside Dairy entered an agreement in June 2015 to acquire Uganda-based dairy firm Sameer Agriculture and Livestock (SALL), a unit of Kenyan conglomerate Sameer Group. Under the terms of the agreement, Brookside will take over SALL's management of contracted farmers and assets, which comprise fresh dairy products in Uganda, reported Standard Digital. Additionally, Brookside agreed to develop all milk cooling and processing units owned by SALL in the region. The deal was for an undisclosed sum. Brookside holds over 45% of the processed milk market in Kenya.

BMI Industry View
7
Industry Forecast
8
Food
8
Food Consumption
8
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
10
Confectionery
11
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
11
Dairy
11
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
11
Drink
12
Alcoholic Drinks
12
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
13
Soft Drinks
13
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
15
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
15
Mass Grocery Retail
16
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
17
Macroeconomic Forecast
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Economic Activity (Uganda 2010-2019)
22
Industry Risk Reward Index
23
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q415 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index
24
Market Overview
27
East Africa Market Overview
27
Table: Profitability And Capital Expenditure Data For Selected African Beer Manufacturers
34
Industry Trends And Developments
35
East Africa Industry Trends And Developments
35
Table: Selected Companies - Financial Indicators
36
Global Industry Overview
39
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry
42
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios
50
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup
55
Demographic Forecast
57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
58
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025)
60
Glossary
62
Food & Drink
62
Mass Grocery Retail
62
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
66
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
67
Table: Weighting
68

The Uganda Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Uganda Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Uganda through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.