Uganda Food & Drink Report

Published 02 June 2015

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Uganda Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2015, driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and accelerating investment in the infrastructure and extractive sectors. We forecast real GDP growth of 6.0% in 2015 and 2016, accelerating on the 2014 level of 5.5%. The formal food and drink sector will grow considerably over the coming years, from a low base, as international firms such as The Coca- Cola Company and regional firms such as Shoprite look for fast growing and underdeveloped regions.

Economic growth in Uganda will be aided by improving credit conditions. The outlook for inflation is also generally supportive of this trend, with headline price growth likely to remain relatively contained over the course of the year. We believe, however, that risks to inflation are to the upside on account of a weaker currency and the risk of food price rises coming from tightness of supply.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2015 food consumption growth: +13.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2019: +14.9%.

  • 2015 beer value sales growth: +12.7%; CAGR to 2019: +14.2%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales growth: +28.0%; CAGR to 2019: +28.0%.

BMI Industry View
7
Industry Forecast
8
Food
8
Food Consumption
8
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
11
Confectionery
11
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019)
11
Dairy
12
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019)
12
Drink
13
Alcoholic Drinks
13
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019)
14
Soft Drinks
14
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019)
16
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019)
16
Mass Grocery Retail
17
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019)
18
Macroeconomic Forecast
19
Economic Analysis
19
Table: Economic Activity (Uganda 2010-2019)
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
25
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
25
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
26
Market Overview
29
East Africa Market Overview
29
Table: Profitability And Capital Expenditure Data For Selected African Beer Manufacturers
36
Industry Trends And Developments
37
East Africa Industry Trends And Developments
37
Table: Selected Companies - Financial Indicators
38
Global Industry Overview
41
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Demographic Forecasts
50
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
51
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
51
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
52
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025)
53
Glossary
55
Food & Drink
55
Mass Grocery Retail
55
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sector-Specific Methodology
58
Sources
58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
59
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
60
Table: Weighting
61

The Uganda Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Uganda Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Uganda through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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