Uganda Food & Drink Report

Published 03 December 2014

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Uganda Food & Drink Report

We maintain our view that economic growth in Uganda will quicken in pace in 2014 driven by a fast-growing consumer segment and accelerating investment into the infrastructure and extractive sectors. Still, we believe the outlook has softened slightly in recent months owing, in part, to the effects of the intensifying crisis in South Sudan and a weaker-than-expected recovery in credit growth.

For a number of reasons we believe that the outlook for the Ugandan economy over the coming months has dimmed slightly since our last update and this has prompted us to make some modest downward revisions to our forecasts for headline growth in 2014 and 2015. We now predict that real GDP growth in the East African country will expand by 5.2% this year and 5.7% next year, compared with our previous projections of 6.3% and 6.4% respectively, and we believe that risks are weighted to the downside.

Private consumption will be the primary driver of economic growth in Uganda over the next few years. We expect this to rise to 4.5pp in 2014 as consumer confidence returns following a challenging couple of years for the sector.

This recovery will be aided by improving credit conditions and a relatively favourable outlook for inflation. While credit to other key sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale trade remains relatively subdued by historical levels, credit to households has surged in recent months, with loans to households and individuals growing by 39.0% year-on-year on average between September 2013 and February 2014 (the latest figure available). While the cost of commercial borrowing remains high at some 20%, it is falling gradually and we expect this trend to continue as confidence slowly returns to the banking sector. The outlook for inflation is also generally supportive of this trend, with headline price growth likely to remain relatively contained over the course of the year. We believe, however, that risks to inflation - which rose to 7.1% in March from 6.7% in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2018)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2018)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
Soft Drinks
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q414 (scores out of 10)
Market Overview
East Africa Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
East Africa Industry Trends And Developments
Global Industry Overview
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
Demographic Forecast
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting

The Uganda Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Uganda Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Uganda.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Uganda through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc