BMI View: Uganda will continue to experience a frequent shortage of antiretroviral medicines, thereby hindering patient access to these essential medicines. While the government recognises the need to improve the situation and is implementing certain strategies to address this, health sector inefficiencies persist and there is an absence of a sustainable, long-term plan. For Uganda, meeting treatment targets, such as the UNAIDS 90-90-90 objective, am id ongoing antiretroviral stock- outs will be a major challenge.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: UGX1,257bn (USD393mn) in 2015 to UGX1,374bn (USD382mn) in 2016; +9.3% growth in local currency terms and -2.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.
Healthcare: UGX6,886bn (USD2.2bn) in 2015 to UGX7,509bn(USD2.1bn) in 2016; +9.0% growth in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised slightly downwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.433||0.393||0.382||0.389||0.402||0.429||0.458|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.79||1.79||1.76||1.71||1.68||1.62||1.56|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||18.2||18.3||18.3||18.3||18.2||18.1||18.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||2.379||2.152||2.086||2.126||2.202||2.368||2.547|
Uganda's ranking increased from 30th to 27th compared to the previous quarter in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.
In November 2015, a new academy was opened at the Makerere University Infectious Disease Institute in Kampala, Uganda, to accelerate research and innovation on HIV and tuberculosis (TB). The opening is the result of the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Uganda Academy for Health Innovation, the Johnson & Johnson Corporate Citizenship Trust, the Janssen Global Public Health and Johnson & Johnson on November 17.
In November 2015, the Ugandan government launched a Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination drive to immunise girls aged 10 years and over in a bid to protect them against cervical cancer. A total of 850,000 girls are likely to be vaccinated against HPV and the campaign is estimated to cost around UGX18bn (USD5.328mn).
In December 2015, the Ugandan government announced that they are planning to add three new vaccines to the immunisation drive in 2016. These include the Rotavirus vaccine for the prevention of diarrhoea, and two others for the prevention of meningitis and polio.
BMI Economic View
Despite an improved outlook for the currency the Ugandan economy will, particularly through H116, feel the effects of the heavy currency depreciation that took place in 2015 via higher borrowing costs and elevated inflation.
BMI Political View
With massive advantages of incumbency, a weak opposition and a change-averse electorate, President Yoweri Museveni is hot favourite to land another term in office in February's presidential election. That said, we believe it will be a tenser and more contested affair than recent polls, with an increased risk of violence.
The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.