BMI View: Uganda's public healthcare sector will remain underfunded, and hence underdeveloped, with the private sector remaining the largest in terms of value. Strong private consumption growth will drive medicine spending, with opportunities being presented for multinationals selling high-value patented drugs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: UGX1,257bn (USD410mn) in 2015 to UGX1,373bn (USD397mn) in 2016; +9.3% growth in local currency terms and -3.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards in US dollar terms from last quarter.
Healthcare: UGX5,485bn (USD1.79bn) in 2015 to UGX5,858bn (USD1.69bn) in 2016; +6.8% growth in local currency terms and -5.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised slightly upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.430||0.410||0.400||0.410||0.420||0.430||0.460|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.54||1.49||1.49||1.44||1.40||1.35||1.29|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||22.3||22.9||23.4||23.9||24.3||24.6||24.8|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.940||1.790||1.690||1.710||1.730||1.770||1.840|
Uganda has moved down one step to 27th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region since the previous quarter. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.
In September 2016, the Health Committee of Ugandan Parliament announced it will investigate shortage of drugs in health facilities across the country. The controversy arose after the fact that the most drugs were available at National Medical Stores (NMS), although in August most district hospitals and health centers have reported severe shortage of drugs. The chairman of the committee, Dr Michael Bukenya, said an investigation was necessary to understand the cause of drug shortages and where the supply is being disrupted (all Africa).
In September 2016, the Ministry of Health declared that Uganda was free from Yellow fever after it had broken out in Masaka and Rukungiri districts in March 2016. In total 65 cases of Yellow fever had been reported in the country, but only three people were confirmed dead. (New Vision)
In September 2016, Member of Parliament Bernard Atiku asked the Ministry of Health to investigate a possible misconduct in Arua District, where health officials allegedly charged fees for the testing and vaccination services during the government's hepatitis B campaign, which was supposed to be free of charge. Mr Atiku emphasized that the actions of the health workers compromised many Ugandans who were not able to pay for the services. (The Monitor)
BMI Economic View
Uganda's central bank will continue cutting the policy rate in the coming quarters in an attempt to spur sluggish growth. Coupled with more benign inflation, as greater shilling stability tempers imported price pressures, this underpins our view that the Bank of Uganda will cut the policy rate to 11.0% by end-2017.
BMI Political View
The ruling National Resistance Movement party is likely to remove the presidential age limit from the Ugandan constitution this year, leading to a sharp uptick in popular protests and weighing on political stability in the coming quarters. Multilateral donors will likely react with disapproval to the amendment and resulting unrest, suggesting potential for aid to be pared back and increasing the risks to the country's already tenuous fiscal position.
The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.