Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: Uganda's reliance on aid funding and the basic nature of the country's public health spending suggests a weak outlook for public healthcare sector provision and we believe that the private sector will remain dominant over our forecast period to 2019 . The private sector makes up the clear majority of pharmaceutical spending in the country in terms of value and strong private consumption growth will drive medicine spending further in this regard.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UGX1,146bn (USD433mn) in 2014 to UGX1,257bn (USD393mn) in 2015; +9.7% growth in local currency terms and -9.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised downwards from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: UGX6,268bn (USD2.4bn) in 2014 to UGX6,892bn(USD2.15bn) in 2015; +9.9% growth in local currency terms and -9.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms revised downwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.403 0.433 0.393 0.382 0.389 0.402 0.429
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.77 1.79 1.79 1.76 1.71 1.67 1.62
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 18.1 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.4
Health spending, USDbn 2.228 2.369 2.154 2.099 2.129 2.190 2.334

Risk/Reward Index

Uganda's ranking decreased from 25th to 30th position compared to the previous quarter in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.

Latest Updates

  • The Uganda Aids Commission (UAC) has unveiled a new UGX13.8bn (USD3.79mn) plan that aims to increase the accessibility of antiretrovirals to people living with HIV/AIDS, according to the UAC's Director General Christine Ondoa.

  • The Ugandan health ministry, together with its development partners, conducted a mass immunisation campaign against 11 diseases from October 3 to 5 worth NGN33.9bn (USD166mn), which targeted 7mn children aged between six months and five years across the country, according to Uganda National Expanded Programme for Immunisation's Acting Manager Henry Luzze.

  • The Ugandan government reportedly requires approximately UGX534bn (USD150.64mn) for a five-year tuberculosis (TB) programme to eradicate the disease from the country, while out of the more than 60,000 TB patients in the country, only 47,000 are being diagnosed and about 13,000 patients remain undetected, according to National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme.

BMI Economic View

Ugandan banks will face a more challenging operating environment in 2016 compared to 2015, with tight monetary conditions and softening demand putting a dampener on loan growth and squeezing profits.

BMI Political View

Uganda's 2016 general election will come too soon for Amama Mbabazi, the former Prime Minister-turned-independent presidential candidate. Despite his popularity, sizeable power base and resources, the task of defeating long-time incumbent President Yoweri Museveni is a big one.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2019)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Indices
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q1 2016
Uganda Risk Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Issues
Supply Chain
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.