Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
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BMI View: The poor condition of Uganda's pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector is unlikely to change in the near term given the country's fundamental economic, political and security issues. Although improving partnerships between the Ugandan government and health-associated organisations, as well as some notable drives to address the population's access to healthcare, these moves will only help fill current healthcare gaps and not provide lasting solution. Issues with healthcare financing and spending will also act to hinder the country's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UGX1,257bn (USD393mn) in 2015 to UGX1,373bn (USD381mn) in 2016; +9.3% growth in local currency terms and -2.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: UGX5,485bn (USD1.71bn) in 2015 to UGX5,858bn (USD1.63bn) in 2016; +6.8% growth in local currency terms and -5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.430 0.390 0.380 0.390 0.400 0.430 0.460
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.79 1.79 1.76 1.71 1.68 1.62 1.56
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.8
Health spending, USDbn 1.940 1.710 1.630 1.630 1.650 1.740 1.840

Risk/Reward Index

Uganda has moved up one step to 26th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region since the previous quarter. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.

Latest Updates

  • According to the WHO, Uganda introduced the Inactivated Polio Virus (IPV) vaccine into its immunisation programme, which offers additional protection to the current oral polio vaccine (OPV). The combination of IPV, which is administered by injection, and OPV provides stronger protection in children against polio. The IPV will be introduced into routine immunization programs in over 100 countries worldwide by July 2016.

  • In February 2016, the quarterly National Electronic Health Management Information System, (eHMIS) stakeholders meeting took place with the WHO providing the core technical and financial support of eHMIS. WHO is collaborating with the government of Uganda in an ongoing effort to enable the country to move from paper to electronic information storage.

  • On April 29 2016, Uganda commemorated World Health Day. Free health checks for body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, malaria and others were the major highlights of the event in order to raise awareness about non-communicable diseases (NCDs). During the past 10 years the prevalence of non-communicable diseases has significantly increased and currently are among the top 10 main causes of morbidity and mortality in Uganda, according to the WHO.

BMI Economic View

Uganda's real GDP growth will slow in 2016 as elevated inflation weighs on private consumption and rising capital goods imports widen the goods trade deficit. However, the economy will rebound modestly in 2017, on the back of robust fixed investment and monetary easing.

BMI Political View

Yoweri Museveni's re-election in Uganda's February presidential elections will ensure policy continuity and support the passage of investor-friendly regulations in the years ahead. However, we see rising risks that the leader will attempt to remain in power beyond this term, increasing the potential for widespread social unrest or substantial legislative gridlock.

BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2020)
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2020)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2020)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2020)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
Uganda Risk Reward Index
Regulatory Review
Intellectual Property Issues
Supply Chain
Market Overview
Healthcare Sector
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.