Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 02 April 2015

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$1,295.00
Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Communicable diseases result in a high mortality rate in Uganda, which is reflected in the latest outbreak of typhoid fever. However, tackling the acute shortage of healthcare professionals to deal with diseases such as typhoid should be a priority in the country, and the government's latest plans to send over two hundred doctors, nurses and midwives to the Caribbean on renewable two-year contracts seems to be at odds with its need to provide adequate healthcare. The government has been criticised for this and will likely face pressure to reverse its decision.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UGX1146bn (USD433mn) in 2014 to UGX1,256.74 (USD438mn) in 2015; +9.7% growth in local currency terms and +1.1% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: UGX4,801.85bn (USD1.81bn) in 2014 to UGX5,225.73 (USD1.82bn) in 2015; 8.8% growth in local currency terms and 0.3% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Q215 Risk/Reward Index, Uganda is ranked 26th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Since February 2015, there has been an outbreak of typhoid fever in Uganda, spreading through the three districts of Kampala, Wakiso and Mukono. By 26th February, the number of people with symptoms of the disease at Kesenyi Health Center IV in Kampala had increased to 560, from 142 on 19th February, AllAfrica reports.

  • In March 2015, the Ugandan government announced plans to send 263 doctors, nurses and midwives to the Caribbean, on renewable two-year contracts to learn to new skills, and there is concern that this could make the problems associated with the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2010-2018)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2010-2018)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2010-2018)
23
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2010-2018)
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Table: Uganda - Economic Activity
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Middle East & Africa
30
Uganda Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Market Overview
40
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Regulatory Development
46
Intellectual Property Issues
46
Supply Chain
47
Healthcare Provision
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Glossary
54
Methodology
56
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
56
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
56
Notes On Methodology
57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
58
Ratings Overview
59
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
59
Indicator Weightings
60

The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc