Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 17 August 2015

  • 61 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Uganda's pharmaceutical market remains dampened by poor funding and consequently underdevelopment. The private sector makes up the clear majority of pharmaceutical spending in the country in terms of value and strong private consumption growth will drive medicine spending further in this regard. Opportunities will be present for those multinationals involved in the selling of high-value patented drugs. A growing communicable and non-communicable disease burden will also contribute to increased spending towards medicines over our forecast period to 2019.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: UGX1,146bn (USD433mn) in 2014 to UGX1,256bn (USD427mn) in 2015; +9.7% growth in local currency terms and -1.3% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: UGX6,304bn (USD2.4bn) in 2014 to UGX6,896bn(USD2.4bn) in 2015; +9.4% growth in local currency terms and -1.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Uganda is ranked 25th in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, with the same score of 30.7 out of a total of 100 as in previous quarter, above several countries including Nigeria and Sudan. While factors such as population growth and increasing healthcare needs will create a growing demand for pharmaceuticals, we note that a sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will combine to keep Uganda in a similarly low position in the MEA matrix over the coming months.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In July, Investors at Cipla Quality Chemical Industries Limited (CiplaQCIL) filed a petition to the Parliamentary Health Committee in Uganda, accusing the Ugandan government of importing antiretrovirals (ARVs) despite the firm having the ability to locally produce the drugs economically, according to allAfrica. CiplaQCIL executive director of finance, Fredrick Mutebi-Kitaka, noted that despite the government agreeing to give CiplaQCIL monopoly for all its public sector...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
13
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
23
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2011-2019)
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Economic Analysis
25
Table: Economic Activity (Uganda 2010-2019)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
31
Uganda Risk Reward Index
39
Rewards
39
Risks
39
Market Overview
41
Industry Trends And Developments
43
Epidemiology
43
Healthcare Sector
47
Regulatory Development
50
Intellectual Property Issues
51
Supply Chain
51
Demographic Forecast
53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025)
54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025)
54
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025)
55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025)
56
Glossary
58
Methodology
60
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
60
Notes On Methodology
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Index Overview
63
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
63
Indicator Weightings
64

The Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Uganda Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Uganda pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Uganda, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ugandan pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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