Uganda Power Report

Published 07 April 2015

  • 60 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Uganda Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Uganda ' s power sector is good. Following an unbundling of the power sector last decade and a commitment by the government to diversify beyond a traditional dependence on hydropower, the country is now developing the capacity to generate thermal and renewable energy. This will underpin a near doubling in electricity generation over the next decade from 3.3TWh in 2015 to 6 . 1 TWh by 2024. During the same time timeframe, demand for electricity will also nearly double from 3.1TWh to 5. 7 TWh as the economy and population grow, and as investment in the electricity grid gives more people access to power. However, market opportunities are limited by a hazardous investment environment, characteri s ed by high levels of corruption and political risk, including the sudden withdrawal of operating licences, as happened with Umeme.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will increase by 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 to 3.3TWh, and by 94.2% over the ten-year timeframe, reaching 6.1TWh in 2024.

  • Power consumption will increase by 6.0% y-o-y in 2015 to 3.1TWh, rising to 5.7TWh by 2024. This implies potential for the export of electricity towards the end of the forecast period.

  • Transmission and distribution losses in 2015 are moderate at 7.0% of output and will drop slightly in percentage terms over our 10-year forecast period to 2024.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In January, the Government adopted a new energy policy which gives Uganda Electricity Generation Company Limited (UEGCL) a mandate to start construction of the flagship 600MW Ayago power plant by 2016, and the 600MW Karuma plant and 183MW Isimba HEP plant by 2017. The government also announced it will list a USD1bn stake in UEGCL on the Uganda Securities Exchange in the next two to three years to allow the company raise funds to pay for these projects.

  • In this context, UEGCL pledged to increase the quantity of electricity produced over the next three years by 50% and to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Key Trends And Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Uganda Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uganda 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uganda 2019-2024)
11
Table: Power Sector
11
Uganda Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
14
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
20
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
21
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
24
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Uganda Power Risk/Reward Index
31
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
32
East Africa Power Projects Database
32
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
38
Competitive Landscape
43
Regional Overview
48
MEA Power Regional Overview
48
Glossary
53
Table: Glossary Of Terms
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecast Methodology
54
Sources
57
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
58
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
59

The Uganda Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc