BMI View: The development of large scale hydroelectric plants will bring substantial new electricity generation and capacity to Uganda's power sector, supporting the gradual expansion of the currently limited transmission grid and the expected future growth in consumption. The country is securing substantial volumes of international funding for a range of projects, including in the development of non-hydropower renewables, which in turn is creating opportunities for international power infrastructure firms. The regulatory environment remains opaque, however, which could dampen investor interest.
While Uganda has made substantial progress in recent years in terms of improving the competitive environment in the power industry, significant obstacles remain. High levels of corruption in public institutions, the dominance of state run firms and political instability, particularly in the run up to 2016 elections, could all deter potential investors. The country has however attracted large volumes of international financing, allowing major hydropower projects to progress - these will prove the primary source of growth in the power sector over the forecast period.
Key Trends And Developments
Progress is being made on the development of the 44MW Muzizi Power Dam in the Kibale District with funding agreed between the Ugandan government, Germany Development Bank and Agency For French Development. The USD70mn project is expected to come online in 2019.
A 1.6MW solar plant has been completed on Kalangala Island on Lake Victoria - the plant is one of the largest in the region and cost USD17mn to develop.
Umeme Power Company is planning on investing USD24mn in smart meters for retail customers in order to reduce losses by 56.0GWh by 2018.
Total power generation will increase by 4.6% y-o-y in 2015 to 3.3TWh, and increase by an average annual rate of 16.7% over the remainder of the forecast period to reach 10.2TWh in 2024.
The Uganda Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).