Uganda Power Report

Published 25 June 2015

  • 70 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Uganda Power Report

BMI View: A range of projects in the pipeline and high levels of private and foreign investment underline our positive growth forecasts for Uganda's power sector. Hydropower continues to dominate the country's energy mix and, with several hydro power plants due to come online during our 2015-2024 forecast period, is set to increase its share of total generation by 2024. Less investment is expected in terms of non-hydropower renewables . H owever , Uganda does offer substantial growth potential in this area and we do expect to see more projects in the near future. Key to development of the power sector is improvement of the country's national grid to ensure consumption levels can grow.

There are some potential headwinds to growth in Uganda's power sector. Although the government has opened the market to foreign investment, high levels of corruption and political instability could deter potential investors. We also note the ongoing reliance on hydropower leaves Uganda vulnerable to supply disruptions in the event of severe weather patterns.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Ugandan government is reportedly looking for private and foreign investors to develop 60 small hydropower plants, with a combined generation of 210MW. The sites are in the western and eastern districts of the country.

  • Dubai based Access Infra Africa is set to launch its 10MW solar and wind power plant in Uganda later in 2015. The plant was partially funded by FMO (the Dutch development bank) and UK based Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund. Access Infra Africa will sell power from the plant to the national grid and plans to increase capacity to 40MW.

  • The government announced it will build over 2,000km of transmissions lines under the 2015/16 budget and set targets of 588kWh of per capita electricity consumption by 2020, rising to 3,668kWh by 2040.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will increase by 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 to 3.3TWh, and increase by an average annual...

BMI Industry View
7
Key Trends And Developments
7
Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Uganda Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uganda 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Uganda 2019-2024)
10
Table: Power Sector
10
Uganda Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
13
Electricity Consumption
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
19
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
20
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2013-2018)
21
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Uganda 2019-2024)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
23
Table: Sub Saharan Africa Q3 2015 - Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
28
Uganda Power Risk/Reward Index
28
Rewards
28
Risks
29
Market Overview
30
East Africa Power Projects Database
30
Table: East Africa Major Projects - Power
30
Key Policies And Market Structure
40
Competitive Landscape
46
Regional Overview
53
MEA Power Regional Overview
53
Glossary
63
Table: Glossary Of Terms
63
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sources
67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
69

The Uganda Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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