BMI View: Uganda's total hydropower generation will increase to more than double its current levels by the end of our 10-year forecast period in 2025. A lack of diversification in the power sector will leave the country vulnerable to power outages if droughts occur. Continued upgrades to the electricity grid will improve electricity trading options and improve access to electricity for the Ugandan population.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||3.760||3.790||3.790||4.760||7.310||7.330||7.340|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||3.3||3.5||3.8||4.2||4.5||4.6||4.7|
|Capacity, Net, MW||848.8||858.8||858.8||1,086.5||1,452.7||1,452.7||1,452.7|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The French Development Agency has stated that it intends to fund the EUR45mn Muzizi hydropower project. The hydroelectric plant will have a capacity of 44.7 megawatts (MW) and we forecast it to come online towards the end of 2018.
We have removed the 600MW Ayago hydropower plant from our forecasts as we have not seen any updates on the plant's progress, with no evidence of construction or planning moving ahead.
As a result, we have revised our hydropower generation forecasts. While we forecasted that hydropower generation will grow to 9.3 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, we now expect it will increase to 6.7TWh.
Uganda's first solar power plant will be inaugurated by the end of September 2016. The solar plant has a capacity of 10MW and is owned by Access Uganda Solar Limited.
Ugandan power utility, Electricity Generation Company Limited, has stated that it wants to export electricity to Uganda's neighbouring countries. This will be achieved after construction at the Karuma hydroelectric plant, which will increase the country's capacity by 600MW.
Ugandan households within a five kilometre radius of the Kawanda-Masaka transmission line are set to receive free electricity, which is part of a government effort to boost electrification rates.
The Uganda Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).