BMI View: Uganda's power sector investment remains focused on hydropower capacity, which will leave the country vulnerable to potential intermittent electricity generation during periods of decreased rainfall or drought. We forecast that total electricity generation will increase from over 3.7TWh in 2016 to 10TWh in 2025, as the country's hydropower projects come online.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||3.762||3.786||3.787||7.338||9.919||9.942||9.965|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||3.3||3.5||3.8||4.2||4.5||4.8||5.0|
|Capacity, Net, MW||848.8||858.8||858.8||1,696.5||2,296.5||2,317.9||2,317.9|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development has stated that the 600 megawatt (MW) Karuma dam is on schedule and at least 27% complete. The excavation for the powerhouse is reportedly near completion, which is a crucial aspect for the construction of underground power systems.
The Ugandan government has teamed up with Umeme with the aim of supplying 311,000 LED bulbs to Umeme customers throughout the country. The goal is to provide Ugandans with a more energy efficient bulb, therefore potentially reducing electricity costs.
Umeme has stated that areas in Uganda have been experiencing power outages as a result of planned maintenance, which is reportedly necessary as alleged vandalism has been causing faults at different power installations.
Uganda is currently exploring the potential for geothermal energy, and will drill three exploration wells. It is estimated that up to 30MW can be generated from each successful well.
With the discovery of uranium back in 2007, the Ugandan government has been exploring possibilities of developing nuclear power capacity. Currently no projects are in the pipeline.
The Uganda Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Uganda Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Uganda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Uganda's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Uganda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).