Ukraine Freight Transport Report

Published 09 January 2015

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Ukraine Freight Transport Report

The Ukrainian freight industry is facing headwinds in 2015 as Ukraine's economy is set to remain in a deep recession throughout 2015 as the conflict in the east rages on. Soaring inflation, a crippled banking sector and severely weakened currency will keep the wider economy close to the brink of collapse over the coming quarters.

The disruption to industrial activity in the east - where the bulk of Ukraine's main industrial exports including steel are produced - has led to a decline in exports, posing problems for the freight industry going forward. Capital controls implemented by the authorities in order to cap exchange rate pressure are also hampering currency convertibility and by extension, international trade. Real export volumes fell by 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q2 2014, from 2.3% y-o-y in the previous quarter, and we estimate a full year contraction of 15% in 2014, followed by a further 3.0% in 2015, before growing very modestly by 2% in 2016. However, the devaluation of the hryvnia has significantly weakened household purchasing power, leading imports to fall by 11.3% y-o-y in Q2 2014, and helping to offset the drag to headline real GDP from weaker exports.

In terms of our forecasts for the Ukrainian freight modes during the next 12 months, the picture looks set to be a miserable one across the board with growth contracting due to the political and economic situation in the country. Inland waterways will see the sharpest decline (13%), while air, road and rail will all see contractions in y-o-y growth in 2015. The Port of Odessa is set for measly annual gains of just 0.01% on 2014.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 Air freight tonnage is expected to contract by 0.60%

  • 2015 Rail freight is forecast to contract by 4.50%

  • 2015 Port of Odessa throughput is forecast to grow by 0.01%

  • 2015 Road freight is forecast to shrink by 2.80%

  • 2015 Inland waterway freight is forecast to contract by 13.00%

  • 2015 Total real trade growth is forecast at 0.02%

Key...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Air Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: Maritime Freight, 2012-19
14
Table: Rail Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Road Freight, 2012-19
15
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2012-19
16
Table: Trade Overview, 2012-19
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2012-19
16
Table: Main Import Partners, 2005-12
17
Table: Main Export Partners, 2005-12
18
Market Overview
19
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Industry Trends and Developments
23
Rail
23
Road
25
Multimodal
25
Maritime
25
Company Profile
29
UIA Cargo
29
Ukrzaliznytsia (Cargo)
31
HPC Ukraina
34
Political Outlook
37
Foreign Policy
37
Domestic Politics
39
Table: Ukraine - Political Overview Table
41
Long-Term Political Outlook
42
Macroeconomic Forecasts
48
Economic Analysis
48
Real GDP By Expenditure Components
49
Risks To Outlook
54
Table: Economic Activity (Ukraine 2009-2018)
54
Demographic Forecast
55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
56
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
58
Methodology
60
Industry Forecast Methodology
60
Sector-Specific Methodology
61
Sources
62

The Ukraine Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's Ukraine Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc