Following an extremely difficult 2015, it is hoped that Ukraine will see some improvement in 2016 although the conflict in the east will continue to hamper growth and affect trade with Russia. It is expected that trade will start to pick up in 2016 and with it, the freight industry. The agricultural sector will play a large role in stimulating the country's economy, though some dry weather conditions may affect harvests in 2016. Meanwhile, the IMF will continue to support Ukraine's economy, offering further lending in the light of its debt to Russia. Ukraine's relations with the EU will also help to encourage trade and put the country on the road to recovery. .
Real export volumes are forecast to increase by 5% in 2016, compared to a fall of 20% in 2015. We expect this growth to lose strength in 2017, falling to 1% but by 2020 it will have recovered to 6.9%. Imports will see a more stable future, rising by 11.4% in 2016 and maintaining growth at 5.07% by 2020. The country's central bank announced in 2015 that it will extend its currency controls into 2016 so as to stabilize the hryvnia, though these controls may be removed in 2016 if the economic situation picks up.
In terms of our forecasts for the Ukrainian freight modes during the next 12 months, the picture is mixed across the various sectors. Rail freight will see the strongest growth of 1.44%, followed by the air freight sector which will grow by 1.4%. Road freight and inland waterways will fail to move into positive figures in 2016, with declines of 1.88% and 1.70% respectively. However, by 2017, all four sectors will see positive, if modest growth of around 1.7% and by 2020, the situation will have improved further.
Headline Industry Data
2016 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.4%
2016 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.44%
2016 Port of Odessa throughput is forecast to grow by 1.82%
2016 Road freight is forecast to shrink by 1.88%
2016 Inland waterway freight is forecast to contract by 1.70%
2016 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.88%
Flights between Russia and Ukraine stopped in December 2015 . The air freight industry was forced to stop all flights to and from Russia at the end of 2015, as Ukraine closed its air space to the country. The move will have a damaging effect on Ukraine's air freight industry as it forces neighboring and competing countries to take over the capacity and provide services into and out of Russia, as well as worsening trade relations between the two countries.
Ukraine bans freight transport to Crimea. In a blow to the road freight industry in the region, the government of Ukraine announced a ban in November 2015 on freight flow between Ukraine and Crimea. The move followed a power outage in the region, which depends on Ukraine for its electricity, water and consumer goods.
EU-Ukraine trade agreement set for 2016. At the end of 2015, Ukraine's president announced confirmation from the EU that the free trade agreement between the two bodies will take effect from the beginning of 2016. The EU confirmed that the agreement will highlight the modern and efficient regulatory environment in Ukraine. It is also hoped that the agreement will demonstrate a reduction in the corruption that has hampered economic growth in the past.
The Ukraine Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Ukraine Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.