Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 June 2015

  • 127 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: While sustained interest from major international companies in Ukraine's gas reserves illustrates substantial underground potential, a volatile security situation and continuing political instability negatively affects exploration and production (E&P) activities. Regulatory challenges, illustrated by recent tax hikes for oil, gas and mineral production are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector.

Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 68.5 60.0 58.8 56.4 54.2 52.0 50.0
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 254.5 251.9 249.4 246.9 244.5 242.0 239.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 317.7 299.2 282.5 278.9 283.7 288.8 298.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 19.9 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 50.4 42.6 37.5 35.8 35.2 34.7 34.4

Recent trends and developments:

  • In May 2015, Ukrainian authorities awarded UK-based JKX Oil & Gas an extension to its Elizavetovskoye production licence to include the West Mashivske prospect in Ukraine. The award enhances the licence area by 33.9sq km, bringing the total area to 104.7sq km.

  • Ukraine made an upfront payment of USD30mn to Gazprom on May 13 to secure gas imports for the month, according to Naftogaz Ukrayiny. Naftogaz has wired a total of USD180mn for Russian gas supplies since the start of Q215, including the latest payment of USD30mn. The latest payment is said to be enough to import around 121.4mn cubic metres (mcm) of gas.

  • European Commission (EC) Vice President Maros Sefcovic intends to close talks with Ukraine and Russia by Q315 to ensure the security of gas supply for next winter and beyond. The EC-brokered talks secured a...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Upstream Exploration
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2013-2018)
12
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2019-2024)
12
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine
16
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
19
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
19
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuel Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
38
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
38
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
39
Upstream: Sending Gas To China
39
Regional Minnows Holding Up
41
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
42
Downstream: Turkish Star Shines In Weak Market
42
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
43
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index
45
Market Overview
47
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
47
Overview/State Role
47
Government Policy
47
International Energy Relations
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
52
Oil Pipelines
54
LNG Terminals
56
Gas Storage
57
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
61
Table: Key Upstream Players
61
Table: Key Downstream Players
61
Company Profile
62
Naftogaz Ukrainy
62
Rosneft
68
Lukoil Ukraine
70
JKX Oil & Gas
73
Galnaftogaz
78
Other Summaries
81
Regional Overview
87
Central and Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
87
Oil Production: Caspian Leads Growth
87
Oil Consumption: Regional Demand Increasing
88
Refining Capacity: Outlook Remains Weak
89
Natural Gas Production: Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
90
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
91
Global Industry Overview
93
Oil Price Outlook
93
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
93
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
94
Appendix
101
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
101
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
102
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
109
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
110
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
111
Ukraine - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
111
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
111
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
112
Ukraine - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
118
Glossary
120
Table: Glossary Of Terms
120
Methodology
122
Industry Forecast Methodology
122
Source
124
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
124
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
126
Table: Weighting
127

The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ukraine including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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