Ukraine Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Ukraine Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: A v olatile security situation and continuing geopolitical tensions hamper exploration and production activities in Ukraine. Regulatory challenges, ill ustrated by recent tax hikes on oil, gas and mineral extractio n , are expected to act as a further deterrent to investment in Ukraine's oil and gas sector . The gas deal between Russia, the EU and Ukraine signed in September 2015 will supply sufficient gas for Ukraine to get through the 2015-2016 winter with an uninterrupted supply. A harsh winter however would severely deplete storage and force Ukraine to accelerate its gas efficiency plans moving into winter 2016.

Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 68.5 60.0 58.8 56.4 54.2 52.1 50.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.1 20.0 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.1 18.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 50.4 42.6 37.5 35.8 34.9 33.9 33.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 117.8 116.6 115.5 114.3 113.2 112.0 110.9
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 317.7 294.5 261.4 263.0 269.8 276.4 286.8
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 54.00 53.00 60.00 64.00

Key forecasts and developments:

  • The exits of Chevron and Shell from their respective shale gas exploration projects highlight the downside risk to our gas reserves forecasts over the coming quarters.

  • Despite large reserves and an active exploration scene, gas production in Ukraine is forecast to continue shrinking across our forecast period to 2024. Upstream activities will suffer from an unpredictable regulatory and fiscal environment, the legal uncertainties regarding offshore Crimean licenses and the ongoing security situation in the East of the country.

  • On the back of economic deterioration and gas price hikes, Ukraine's 2014 gas consumption contracted by more than 15% on 2013 levels and we forecast this trend to continue over the next few years. Gas price hikes for residential and industrial consumers will drive down gas demand over the short term, while continued government drive to reduce domestic gas needs will limit consumption over the longer term.

  • Rapidly falling domestic gas consumption will push Ukraine's gas imports lower until 2019. As the consumption stabilises and domestic production continues shrinking, we expect a slight recovery in the country's gas import levels in the second half of our forecast period. Despite strong reductions in Russian gas imports, Ukraine will remain dependent on Russian gas during the winter months over the short-to-medium term.

  • Severe underinvestment, political uncertainty and civil insurgency have further reduced the country's refining utilisation rates to below 15%. We expect similar rates over the forecast period, until an amelioration of the security, political and economic conditions justify the re-opening of closed refineries.

  • Refined fuels consumption will continue its strong contraction in 2015 on account of civil conflict in eastern Ukraine and the associated economic slowdown. Our longer-term forecasts are more positive as we see consumption gradually rebounding in the post-2016 years and gathering momentum towards the end of our forecast period to 2024.

  • Given the country's disastrous refining sector, crude net imports have fallen substantially over the past decade and are expected to remain low over the coming decade. Nevertheless, this has also translated into increasing refined products import needs, as domestic production is insufficient to meet demand. Net imports of refined products will pick up speed as consumption recovers. This is unlikely to change unless the refining sector undergoes a significant revamp.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Ukraine 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
16
Table: Key Upstream Projects In Ukraine
16
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
16
Table: Oil Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
19
Table: Gas Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
19
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2013-2018)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ukraine 2019-2024)
22
Refined Fuel Consumption
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2013-2018)
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ukraine 2019-2024)
24
Gas Consumption
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Consumption (Ukraine 2019-2024)
26
Trade - Oil
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
28
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
28
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
30
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2013-2018)
32
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Ukraine 2019-2024)
32
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
33
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
40
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward
40
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index
41
Upstream: All Pipes Point To China
41
Regional Minnows Holding Up
43
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index
44
Downstream: Turkish STAR Brightens Weak Market
44
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index
45
Ukraine - Risk/Reward Index
47
Market Overview
49
Ukraine Energy Market Overview
49
Overview/State Role
49
Government Policy
49
International Energy Relations
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In Ukraine
54
Oil Pipelines
56
LNG Terminals
58
Gas Storage
59
Gas Pipelines
59
Competitive Landscape
62
Competitive Landscape Summary
62
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Oil And Gas Sector
63
Table: Key Upstream Players
63
Table: Key Downstream Players
63
Company Profile
64
Naftogaz Ukrainy
64
Rosneft
70
Lukoil Ukraine
72
JKX Oil & Gas
75
Galnaftogaz
80
Other Summaries
83
Regional Overview
89
Central And Eastern Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
89
Oil Production: Caspian Driving Growth
89
Oil Consumption: Demand Tempered Due To Russian Weakness
90
Refining Capacity: Few Opportunities In Weak Market
91
Natural Gas Production: Caspian Ramping-Up For 2020 Targets
92
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions
93
Gas Consumption: Soft Demand Supports Exports
94
Global Industry Overview
96
Global Energy Market Overview
96
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
99
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
100
Appendix
102
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
102
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
102
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
103
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
104
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
106
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
109
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
110
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
111
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
112
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
113
Ukraine - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2013-2018)
114
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Ukraine 2019-2024)
114
Ukraine - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
116
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
117
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2013-2018)
120
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Ukraine 2019-2024)
121
Glossary
123
Table: Glossary Of Terms
123
Methodology
125
Industry Forecast Methodology
125
Source
127
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
127
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
129
Table: Weighting
130

The Ukraine Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Ukraine including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Ukraine Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukrainian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Ukraine to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.