BMI View: Ukraine's negative pharmaceutical trade balance will remain and continue to widen to 2019 as the country's political and economic landscapes hamper its local business development. A rising demand for medicines will force the Ukraine to continue seeking its medicine supply from abroad, though the country's severely weak foreign exchange rate will limit revenue-generation for multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: UAH40.24bn (USD3.35bn) in 2014 to UAH46.84bn (USD1.95bn) in 2015; +16.4% in local currency terms and -41.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 1 6 .
Healthcare: UAH114.62bn (USD9.54bn) in 2014 to UAH122.08bn (USD5.09bn) in 2015; +6.5% in local currency terms and -46.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q 4 1 6 .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, national sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.439||3.350||1.952||2.039||2.127||2.225||2.417|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.50||3.38||2.20||2.04||2.08||1.97||1.93|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||32.0||35.1||38.4||41.5||42.3||42.3||42.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.865||9.543||5.087||4.916||5.029||5.261||5.715|
In Q116, Ukraine is ranked as the 19th most attractive market in the Central and Eastern Europe region (scoring 37.4 out of 100). Ukraine's score has collapsed over the previous quarter due to the perilous condition of the country's economy, the depreciation of the local currency against the dollar and the bleak short term outlook.
Key Trends & Developments
In October, the World Health Organization, UNICEF and the US Agency for International Development have alleged that Ukraine's health authorities have been critically late and ineffective in countering Europe's first polio outbreak in the country, as children in Ukraine have not been vaccinated against the disease since 2008.
In October, NATO has successfully carried out a field test of the portable medical kits in the Ukrainian city of Lviv, involving 1,100 rescue workers from 34 countries; the exercise, named the NATO Science for Peace and Security telemedicine project, enabled rescue workers to assess, diagnose and treat patients in the field and communicate in real time with healthcare providers.
In October, Medecins Sans Frontieres has received written notification from the Humanitarian Committee of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, informing them that its accreditation in the region had been withdrawn and asking it to immediately stop its activities.
BMI Economic View
Ukraine's fiscal deficit will narrow as the government stays on track implementing its reform programme in the years ahead. However, structural inefficiencies will limit the effect of these reforms, while Ukraine's debt burden will continue to pose a systemic risk to financial stability.
BMI Political View
While President Poroshenko's political party Solidarity has won in 15 of the 26 voting regions in Ukraine's local elections on October 25, we expect that the overall results will further impede the government strictly adhering to its economic reform programme, which is under the guidance of the International Monetary Fund.
The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukraine pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ukraine, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.