Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 26 November 2014

  • 105 pages
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$1,295.00
Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: In the short- term, Ukraine's pharmaceutical market will continue to suffer from the impact of its tenuous economic position, the civil unrest in the economic heartlands of Eastern Ukraine and the severe erosion of consumer purchasing power resulting from a significant depreciation in the hryvnia. With consumer-spending the driving force behind pharmaceutical sales, the political and economic situation in Ukraine will need to stabilise before the pharmaceutical sector experiences any positive development.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: UAH40.01bn (USD3.48bn) in 2014 to UAH45.49bn (USD3.14bn) in 2015; +13.7% in local currency terms and -9.8% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: UAH118.47bn (USD10.30bn) in 2014 to UAH128.92bn (USD8.89bn) in 2015; +8.8% in local currency terms and -13.69% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

In Q215, Ukraine is ranked as the 12th most attractive market in the Central and Eastern Europe region (scoring 49.8 out of 100 in BMI's Risk Reward Index). Ukraine's score is defined by its large, pharmaceutical market (market expenditure score of 12.0 out of 20) and large pensionable population (pensionable population score of 6.4 out of 8), but dragged down by a shrinking population (population growth score of 0.5 out of 5) and low pharmaceutical spending per capita (3.6 against a regional average of 5.6).

Key Trends & Developments

  • In December, Ukraine's parliament accepted a new budget for 2015 that saw healthcare shielded from wide ranging cuts in other areas of the budget. Alongside defence spending, funding for healthcare was increased.

  • Ukraine's Association of Pharmaceutical Research and Development (APRaD) has appealed to various government agencies in the country to consider the impact the introduction of an additional 5% VAT on imported drugs is having on public procurement. The appeal was made in cooperation with the American Chamber of Commerce in the Ukraine. The association believes that the provisions...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
15
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
18
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
25
OTC Medicines Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2010-2018)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
27
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Ukraine 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
33
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Economic Activity (Ukraine 2009-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Ukraine Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
49
Epidemiology
49
Table: Selected Causes Of Death, 2005-2010 ('000)
50
Table: Morbidity By Selected Diseases, 2005-2010 ('000)
50
Healthcare System
51
Healthcare System Reforms
52
Healthcare Funding
53
Health Insurance Developments
54
Research And Development (R&D)
55
Clinical Trials
56
Regulatory Development
58
Regulatory Regime
58
Regulatory Developments
60
Regulatory Amendments
61
Pharmaceutical Advertising
63
Intellectual Property Issues
64
Counterfeit Drugs
66
Pricing Regime
67
Recent Pricing Regime Developments
69
Reimbursement Regime
71
Drug Tendering Regime
73
Competitive Landscape
75
Pharmaceutical Industry
75
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector
76
Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
77
Table: Association of International Manufacturers (AIPM) Ukraine Members, 2011
77
Recent Company Activities
79
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
79
Pharmaceutical Retail
80
Company Profile
83
Arterium
83
Farmak
86
Gedeon Richter
88
Krka
91
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
94
GSK
96
Sanofi
98
Demographic Forecast
100
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Glossary
104
Methodology
106
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
106
Notes On Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Ratings Overview
109
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
109
Indicator Weightings
110

The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukraine pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ukraine, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc