BMI View: The burden of chronic diseases in Ukraine will remain dominant in the country over the next fifteen years, and the country's continuing war will contribute to the country's poor epidemiological profile. The country's pharmaceutical market will maintain strength as sluggish domestic production combined with robust and rising medical demand results in an even higher reliance on foreign healthcare investors and drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: UAH46.8bn (USD2.14bn) in 2015 to UAH54.0bn (USD2.11bn) in 2016; +15.2% in local currency terms and 3.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards compared to Q 116 .
Healthcare: UAH122.9bn (USD5.60bn) in 2015 to UAH128.7bn (USD5.27bn) in 2016; +4.7% in local currency terms and -5.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards compared to Q 116.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, national sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.350||2.135||2.211||2.358||2.557||3.040||3.424|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||3.38||2.40||2.22||2.28||2.03||2.09||2.12|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||35.1||38.1||41.9||44.7||46.1||47.2||47.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||9.543||5.603||5.274||5.278||5.542||6.442||7.151|
In Q216, Ukraine is ranked as the 16th most attractive market in the Central and Eastern Europe region (scoring 46.4 out of 100). Ukraine's score is still under pressure due to the perilous condition of the country's economy, the depreciation of the local currency against the dollar and the bleak short-term outlook.
Key Trends & Developments
Ukraine's health system is reportedly in danger of collapse, as a health reforms bill has stalled in parliament. A reform drive launched by the Western-leaning government has become stuck in bureaucratic inertia, due to arguments and allegations of corruption. Many hospitals in the country require renovation, equipment and medicines.
In December, the gravity of the situation was confirmed by Health minister Alexander Kvitashvili, who was appointed in the hope that his outsider status and international experience would help the country deliver on reform promises. 'Without a complete reboot, financially the system will collapse in about a year, if not faster, because there is no way Ukraine can increase spending to a sustainable level,' Kvitashvili said, according to Reuters.
The State Budget for 2016 was agreed by the Supreme Council of Ukraine in late December 2015 and was adopted on January 1 2016. Funds to the Ministry of Health have decreased by just 0.12% from 2015; however, on closer inspection healthcare provision is set to worsen. The allocations from the state budget to already underfunded local health administrations is set to decrease from UAH46.8bn (USD1.91bn) in 2015 to UAH44.6bn (USD1.82bn) in 2016, a fall of 4.5% year-on-year (y-o-y).
BMI Economic View
Inflation in Ukraine will continue to fall sharply in the coming months. However, the decline will be less than the central bank anticipates as the political crisis puts pressure on the currency.
BMI Political View
The resignation of Ukraine's economy minister will not only put pressure on the government to deliver structural reforms, but will also likely prevent the IMF from disbursing Ukraine with highly necessary financing in the coming months.
The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukraine pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ukraine, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.