Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 August 2015

  • 106 pages
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$1,295.00
Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Ukraine's pharmaceutical market will continue to experience inflationary dynamics in 2015, as the impact of the country's economic instability and the Ukrainian hryvnia's depreciation contribute to drug price inflation. We expect market share will further shift towards domestic pharmaceutical companies as the price of imported medicines makes them increasingly unaffordable to consumers. As a result, Ukraine's attractiveness to multinational drugmakers will decline significantly in the short-term.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: UAH40.24bn (USD3.35bn) in 2014 to UAH46.84bn (USD1.95bn) in 2015; +16.4% in local currency terms and -41.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q315.

Healthcare: UAH114.62bn (USD9.54bn) in 2014 to UAH122.08bn (USD5.09bn) in 2015; +6.5% in local currency terms and -46.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q315.

Risk/Reward Index

In Q415, Ukraine is ranked as the 19th most attractive market in the Central and Eastern Europe region (scoring 37.4 out of 100). Ukraine's score has collapsed over the previous quarter due to the perilous condition of the country's economy, the depreciation of the local currency against the dollar and the bleak short-term outlook.

Key Trends & Developments

  • In Q215, Ukrainian pharmacy sales grew by 23.1% y-o-y to UAH9.99bn (USD 543mn). Sales volumes of pharmaceuticals continued to decline, falling 8.7% y-o-y in Q215 to 238mn packages.

  • In August 2015, health minister Alexander Kvitashvili announced that the Ministry of Health would work with a range of international organisations for the procurement of medicines in 2015, such as the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Children's Fund and the WHO. Procurement worth UAH1.5bn (USD70.5mn) would be made through such organisations in 2015.

  • According to the UN Special Envoy for AIDS, some 8000 patients in Eastern Ukraine were facing a shortage of anti-retroviral drugs due to conflict in the region.

  • In...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
26
OTC Medicines Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2019)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2019)
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Ukraine 2013-2019)
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
33
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Ukraine 2012-2019)
36
Industry Risk Reward Index
38
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Index
38
Ukraine Risk/Reward Index
44
Rewards
44
Risks
45
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
48
Epidemiology
48
Table: Ukrainian Cancer Incidence Rates, 2012-2035
50
Healthcare System
52
Healthcare System Reforms
53
Healthcare Funding
54
Table: Healthcare Resources (Ukraine 2009-2014)
55
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Ukraine 2009-2014)
55
Table: Healthcare Activity (Ukraine 2009-2014)
56
Research And Development
56
Clinical Trials
57
Regulatory Development
59
Regulatory Regime
59
Recent Regulatory Developments
61
Pharmaceutical Advertising
62
Counterfeit Drugs
63
Intellectual Property Issues
64
Pricing Regime
65
Recent Pricing Regime Developments
67
Reimbursement Regime
67
Competitive Landscape
69
Pharmaceutical Industry
69
Generic Drugmakers
69
Research-Based Industry
71
Table: Association of International Manufacturers (AIPM) Ukraine Members, 2015
71
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
72
Pharmaceutical Retail
73
Company Developments
75
Company Profile
76
Arterium
76
Farmak
79
Gedeon Richter
81
Krka
84
Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
87
GlaxoSmithKline
89
Sanofi
92
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
95
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
97
Glossary
99
Methodology
101
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Notes On Methodology
102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Index Overview
104
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
104
Indicator Weightings
105

The Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Ukraine pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Ukraine, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Ukrainian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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