Ukraine Power Report

Published 12 June 2015

  • 52 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Ukraine Power Report

BMI View: The immediate outlook for electricity generation is poor with the country in an official state of energy emergency. Fighting in the east of Ukraine has halted coal production in many mines and has blocked transport lines to power stations. On the upside, BMI understands Ukraine has managed to make payments for gas in March and May 2015 and the negotiations for a long-term solution, mediated by the EU , are ongoing. Although Ukraine is increasing its generation of nuclear energy, we still forecast a decline in generation to 15 2 . 9 TWh in 2015, down from 173.8TWh in 2013.

Longer term, both production and consumption will rise as the economy starts to recover and processes of integration with the EU bring about a partial liberalisation of the power sector and investment from abroad. This will create opportunities for investment in Ukraine's power sector. However, multiple barriers stand in the way of developing the sector, including corruption, vested interests and the fractious political environment, meaning that electricity production will fall far short of Ukraine's potential.

Key Trends And Developments

*The short-term outlook for Ukraine's coal-fired power sector is poor due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine's main coal-producing regions in the east of the country. Around two-thirds of Ukraine's mines have ceased activity, forcing Ukraine to import coal to cover its needs.

* Gazprom received USD15mn as prepayment for March 2015 gas supplies. Ukraine made an upfront payment of USD30mn to Gazprom on May 13 to secure gas imports for the month, according to Naftogaz Ukrayiny. Naftogaz has wired a total of USD180mn for Russian gas supplies since the start of Q215, including the latest payment of USD30mn. Ukraine also managed to negotiate a discount on the natural gas supply until the end of Q215. However, a long-term agreement is yet to be reached. European Commission (EC) Vice-President Maros Sefcovic intends to close talks with Ukraine and...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Ukraine Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Ukraine 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Ukraine Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024)
15
Electricity Consumption
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018)
20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024)
21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018)
22
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024)
22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2018)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Ukraine 2019-2024)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Index
25
Industry Risk Reward Index
25
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Risks
30
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Ukraine Power Projects Database
35
Table: Ukraine Major Projects - Power
35
Competitive Landscape
36
Ukrenergo
37
AES
37
Regional Overview
38
CEE Power Regional Overview
38
Glossary
45
Table: Glossary Of Terms
45
Methodology
46
Industry Forecast Methodology
46
Sources
49
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
49
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
50
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
51

The Ukraine Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Ukraine Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Ukraine's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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