Ukraine Telecommunications Report

Published 26 March 2015

  • 116 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Successful 3G licence auctions early 2015 after a year of crisis brought optimism to the Ukrainian telecommunications market. Ukraine's three largest operators MTS Ukraine , Kyivstar and Life:) acquired licences in a long-awaited 3G spectrum auction. Given the expected launch of 3G services by the three major operators in 2015, BMI has revised the outlook for 3G/4G sector higher. With smartphone penetration reaching 21% for MTS and VimpelCom and 34% for Life:) as of Q314, it is clear that there is pent-up demand for advanced services. Despite potential higher data revenues, ongoing crisis is still having an impact on the operators' revenues with two out of three large operators reporting a sharp decline in average revenues per user (ARPUs) at the end of 2014. Our outlook continues to hang in the balance while shadows hang over both the 3G auction and Russia's frosty relationship with Ukraine.

Key Data

  • The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.7% at the end of 2014.

  • Mobile ARPUs, despite increased usage of voice, messaging and data services in 2014, recorded negative growth. As price competition will continue to undermine operators' revenue growth strategies ARPU erosion will continue. Although in 2015 ARPU will rebound, in the long term a modest decline is now foreseen - to UAH33.0 by the end of 2019 - as the power of millions of smartphones already in widespread use is finally unleashed.

Key Developments

Ukraine's three largest operators, MTS Ukraine, Kyivstar and Life:), have acquired 3G licences in a long-awaited 3G spectrum auction. They were each awarded a 15-year licence for 30MHz frequencies in the 2,100MHz band. The tender raised a total of UAH8.77bn (EUR278.7mn), with Life:) recording the highest bid of UAH3.36bn, while MTS will pay UAH2.72bn and Kyivstar UAH2.7bn. Operators Life:) and Kyivstar have claimed that they are aiming to launch 3G services within six months after...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Mobile
14
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2018)
14
ARPU
17
Fixed-Line
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2011-2018)
19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q414
27
Market Overview
29
Mobile
29
Regional Perspective
29
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
30
Key Developments
30
Market Growth
30
Market Share
32
Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q214
34
ARPU
35
MVNOs
37
Networks
38
Mobile Content
40
Mobile Operator Data
42
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Overview
43
Table: MTS
43
Table: VimpelCom
45
Table: Astelit
46
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
47
Fixed-Line
52
Broadband
57
Pay-TV
66
Industry Trends & Developments
73
Table: Selected Developments
77
Regulatory Development
79
Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
80
Regulatory Developments
82
Table: Selected Regulatory Developments
83
Competitive Landscape
84
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market
84
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2009-2013
85
Company Profile
86
Ukrtelecom
86
VimpelCom (Kyivstar)
91
MTS Ukraine
96
Astelit
100
Regional Overview
104
Business Divisions
104
Table: ENT: Revenue By Business Segment (HRKmn)
104
Financial Performance
104
Geographical Performance
105
Table: ENT: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
106
Domestic Market
106
Export Markets
107
Ericsson Market
108
Outlook
109
Table: Selected Contracts, 2013/14
110
Demographic Forecast
111
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
112
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
113
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
114
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
114
Glossary
115
Table: Glossary Of Terms
115
Methodology
117
Industry Forecast Methodology
117
Sources
119
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
119
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
120
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
121

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc