BMI View: 3G has finally come to Ukraine with the launch of commercial services by Astelit and Kyivstar. This is a huge opportunity for operators to turnaround their fortunes with higher revenues from mobile data services. The telecoms sector has been artificially held back for many years as a result of the lack of 3G and fierce competition for data subscribers will help with innovation and VAS. Ukraine has one of the lowest ARPUs in Europe and we expect this will begin to improve as a result.
The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.7% at the end of 2014.
MTS Ukraine reported 180,000 3G users since it signed a partnership with TriMob in February 2015.
Mobile ARPUs, despite increased usage of voice, messaging and data services in 2014, recorded negative growth. As price competition will continue to undermine operators' revenue growth strategies ARPU erosion will continue. Although in 2015 ARPU will rebound, in the long term a modest decline is now foreseen - to UAH33.0 by the end of 2019 - as the power of millions of smartphones already in widespread use is finally unleashed.
Astelit became the first GSM operator to launch commercial 3G services in Ukraine in June 2015. Kyivstar followed a few days later with its own launch. MTS has not yet detailed a plan for its 3G commercial services.
Ukraine's National Commission for the State Regulation of Communications and Informatization (NCCIR) plans to issue 4G LTE licences in the country in 2017. In the near future, the regulator plans to present a road map regarding the implementation of 4G technology. The NCCIR noted that a revision of bands will be required and planning processes will be initiated shortly. The regulator issued three licences for 3G services in February 2015.
In April 2015, MTS Ukraine sold its fixed internet access and fixed telephony operations in the Odessa region and Kiev to Ukrtelecom's sister firm
The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.