Ukraine Telecommunications Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecommunications industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast Scenario, Telecommunications Risk Reward Index, Market Overview, Regulatory Environment, Company Profiles and Competitive

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Ukraine Telecommunications Report
Product Price

BMI View: We have made some minor downwards revisions for the Ukrainian mobile market to account for the contractions in H1 2016. We are of the opinion that organic subscriber growth in the market will remain elusive out to 2020. Furthermore, the market faces significant headwinds, ranging from a weak currency, low consumer spending ability , market saturation and an uncertain political climate. It is our view that operators hold a significant number of inactive accounts that will be shed in the coming quarters. Growth and revenues to 2020 and beyond will be driven by 3G and advanced data technology uptake as the national mobile market begins to advance and mature in technological terms .

3G/4G Migration to Support Saturated Market
f = BMI forecast. Source: National sources, BMI

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

  • The mobile market served 61.152mn subscribers at end of Q216, down by 2.8% y-o-y. We have made further minor downwards adjustments to our mobile forecasts and will monitor the market in the months ahead before making further revisions. We estimate that the mobile market will decline modestly over the course of our forecast period, out to 2020. By end of 2020, we estimate the mobile market to reach 57.3mn.

  • 3G uptake throughout the 2016-2020 period will be strong and will constitute the primary engine of mobile growth in the mobile market. The real opportunities in this segment lie in content and services. We expect a healthy 3G uptake rate over the course of our present forecast period out to 2020. By end-2020, our forecast envisages a total of 27.81mn 3G subscribers, up from 5.56mn at YE15.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2013-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Rewards Index, Q2 2016
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Market Drivers & Trends
Wireline Voice & Broadband
Regulatory Development
Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
Regulatory Developments
Table: Selected Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Ukraine - Key Telecoms Players
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Overview
Table: VimpelCom (Beeline)
Table: MTS Ukraine
Table: Lifecell (formerly Astelit)
Company Profile
MTS Ukraine
VimpelCom (Kyivstar)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.