BMI View: 3G has finally come to Ukraine with the launch of commercial services by Astelit and Kyivstar. This is a huge opportunity for operators to turn around their fortunes with higher revenues from mobile data services. The telecoms sector has been artificially held back for many years as a result of the lack of 3G and fierce competition for data subscribers will help with innovation and value added services . Ukraine has one of the lowest ARPUs in Europe and we expect this will begin to improve as a result. This is due to the high share of inactive prepaid contracts in the subscriber mix and the depreciation of the local currency as result of the ongoing crisis, and we expect 3G will still affect the market positively.
As regulator NKRZI (NCCIR) approved in August 2015 a roadmap to implement 4G LTE mobile services in the country until 2017, we expect operators will have to plan their investment into networks carefully, while competition in the mobile broadband market increases. The main components of the roadmap include changes to the national frequency allocation table/usage plan and re-farming existing frequencies for LTE under a new technology-neutral licensing regimen. The plan aims to catch up with technology used by other countries.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
We are concerned about the stark depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar. We forecast it to fall further, thus weighing in on the profitability and financial outlook of the operators.
The mobile market counted 62.3mn subscriptions by the end of 2015 and shrank by over 0.5mn in 9M15. We have made some modest downwards adjustments to out mobile forecast this quarter to reflect these losses.
3G uptake in 2016 and 2017 will be strong and constitute the primary engine of mobile growth in the cellular market of Ukraine. We believe that there will be some lucrative opportunities in this segment.
At the end of Q115, there were 9.67mn 'basic' fixed-line telephone connections in service. This represented a 10.4% decrease from the10.80mn of the previous year.
|Operators will Feel The Currency Pinch|
|Operator Revenues In USDmn (LHS) & UAHmn (RHS) (2012-2015)|
The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.