Ukraine Telecommunications Report

Published 26 March 2015

  • 116 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Ukraine Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Successful 3G licence auctions early 2015 after a year of crisis brought optimism to the Ukrainian telecommunications market. Ukraine's three largest operators MTS Ukraine , Kyivstar and Life:) acquired licences in a long-awaited 3G spectrum auction. Given the expected launch of 3G services by the three major operators in 2015, BMI has revised the outlook for 3G/4G sector higher. With smartphone penetration reaching 21% for MTS and VimpelCom and 34% for Life:) as of Q314, it is clear that there is pent-up demand for advanced services. Despite potential higher data revenues, ongoing crisis is still having an impact on the operators' revenues with two out of three large operators reporting a sharp decline in average revenues per user (ARPUs) at the end of 2014. Our outlook continues to hang in the balance while shadows hang over both the 3G auction and Russia's frosty relationship with Ukraine.

Key Data

  • The uptake of broadband services is low, with penetration estimated to have reached just 17.7% at the end of 2014.

  • Mobile ARPUs, despite increased usage of voice, messaging and data services in 2014, recorded negative growth. As price competition will continue to undermine operators' revenue growth strategies ARPU erosion will continue. Although in 2015 ARPU will rebound, in the long term a modest decline is now foreseen - to UAH33.0 by the end of 2019 - as the power of millions of smartphones already in widespread use is finally unleashed.

Key Developments

Ukraine's three largest operators, MTS Ukraine, Kyivstar and Life:), have acquired 3G licences in a long-awaited 3G spectrum auction. They were each awarded a 15-year licence for 30MHz frequencies in the 2,100MHz band. The tender raised a total of UAH8.77bn (EUR278.7mn), with Life:) recording the highest bid of UAH3.36bn, while MTS will pay UAH2.72bn and Kyivstar UAH2.7bn. Operators Life:) and Kyivstar have claimed that they are aiming to launch 3G services within six months after...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Operational Risk
15
Industry Forecast
18
Mobile
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019)
18
ARPU
19
Wireline
21
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Ukraine 2012-2019)
21
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
24
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q215
29
Market Overview
31
Mobile
31
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013
32
Key Developments
32
Market Growth
32
Market Share
33
Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q314
36
ARPU
37
MVNOs
38
Networks
38
Mobile Content
41
Mobile Operator Data
43
Table: Ukraine Mobile Market Overview
43
Table: MTS
43
Table: VimpelCom
45
Table: Astelit
46
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
47
Wireline
51
Broadband
56
Pay-TV
65
Industry Trends & Developments
72
Industry Trends And Developments
72
Table: Selected Developments
74
Regulatory Development
76
Table: Regulatory Body Responsibilities
77
Regulatory Developments
79
Table: Selected Regulatory Developments
80
Competitive Landscape
81
Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market
81
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2009-2013
82
Company Profile
83
Astelit
83
MTS Ukraine
87
Ukrtelecom
91
VimpelCom (Kyivstar)
96
Regional Overview
100
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
106
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
106
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
108
Glossary
110
Table: Glossary Of Terms
110
Methodology
112
Industry Forecast Methodology
112
Sources
114
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
114
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
115
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
116

The Ukraine Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Ukraine's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Ukraine.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Ukraine to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Ukrainian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ukraine's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ukraine.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc