This quarter, BMI maintains its sales forecast of 3% growth for the UAE new vehicle sales market in 2015. We continue to believe that the combination of a slowing economy in Abu Dhabi and the rising likelihood of an increase in local interest rates will weigh on the market's near-term prospects slightly. Certainly, we are not anticipating a repetition of last year's double-digit sales growth across the emirate.
Early sales indications would seem to back up our near-term caution, with Q115 sales across the emirate reportedly up by just 1% y-o-y, at 101,676 registrations. However, we expect this figure to improve as additional monthly data are released, especially as a significant proportion of UAE new vehicle sales take place during the month of Ramadan. This is also a time when many dealerships have special offers.
Looking forward, BMI remains broadly favourable on the medium-term outlook for local new vehicle sales, with further growth of 21.8% forecast for the 2016-19 forecast period. This should take total new vehicle sales to above the 500,000 unit mark by end-2019.
Recent statistical analysis carried out by BMI underpins our medium-term optimistic view. A comparison of GDP per capita (PPP basis) and passenger cars per 1,000 people for markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows that the UAE is a regional laggard in car ownership terms, despite being a strong market for sales. With a GDP per capita (PPP) of over USD58,000, it had a car ownership level of just 108 cars per 1,000 people as of 2013, far below regional peers such as Bahrain, with 305/1,000.
At just over 400,000 units, the UAE represents one of the biggest passenger car markets in the region, certainly among the markets of the Gulf Co-operation Council. It has also been growing rapidly, with double-digit growth for the past three years and average annual growth of 4.6% forecast by BMI to 2019, meaning it is far from unattractive for carmakers. If anything, its low car ownership means...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.