United Arab Emirates Autos Report

Published 16 June 2015

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United Arab Emirates Autos Report

BMI has become slightly more cautious on the near-term outlook for the UAE new vehicle sales market. We are now targeting 3% growth for 2015, down from 5% previously, as the combination of a slowing economy in Abu Dhabi and the rising likelihood of an increase in local interest rates weighs on the market's near-term prospects slightly. That said, BMI remains broadly favourable on the medium-term outlook for the local sales, with further growth of 21.8% forecast for the 2016-19 forecast period. This should take total new vehicle sales to above the 500,000 unit mark.

At an individual emirate level, BMI remains most upbeat towards auto sales prospects within Dubai, which will record the fastest rate of growth of the seven emirates in the UAE over the next few years, as well as outperforming all Gulf countries aside from Qatar. We forecast Dubai's real GDP growth to come in at 4.6% in 2015 and 4.8% in 2016, following estimated growth of 4.4% in 2014. This expansion will be driven primarily by the tourism and construction sectors. Indeed, we remain particularly bullish on Dubai's infrastructure sector, with growth set to remain elevated in the run-up to the World Expo in 2020. This will boost demand for HCVs and related construction equipment in particular.

However, while we are bullish towards Dubai, we are becoming slightly more cautious on the outlook for Abu Dhabi, whose economy remains dominated by the hydrocarbon sector. We forecast Abu Dhabi's real GDP growth to reach 3.2% in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, following an estimated 3.5% in 2014. This figure is below our aggregate forecast for the UAE at 4.0% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016. However, while a slowing economy may weigh on local consumer demand for passenger cars and SUVs, we again expect good support to be given to the CV segment, as with Dubai, due to ongoing investment in infrastructure and construction. Indeed, we expect the construction sector to be a key driver of non-oil growth in the coming years. As

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Production, Sales and Trade
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
14
Sales
14
Production
16
Trade
16
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
17
Table: UAE - Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales, 2014
18
Luxury Cars
20
Motorcycles
22
Commercial Vehicles
23
Suppliers
25
Alternative Fuels
27
Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Economic Analysis
29
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
31
Oil Sector To See Only Marginal Gains
32
Risks To Outlook
33
Table: Economic Activity (United Arab Emirates 2009-2018)
34
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Arab Emirates 2011-2018)
34
Industry Risk/Reward Index
36
Middle East - Risk/Reward Index
36
GCC Still Dominates
36
Little Change Mid-Table
37
Conflicts Take Their Toll
37
Table: MENA Autos Risk/Reward Index
39
Company Profile
40
Company Monitor
40
Arabian Automobiles (Nissan)
42
Al Futtaim Motors (Toyota)
45
Regional Overview
47
Middle East Overview
47
Table: MENA Autos Production Investments
47
Global Industry Overview
49
Africa Still The Growth Driver
49
Oil Prices A Boon For Importers
50
Regulation Driving Innovation
52
Table: Fuel Economy Targets By Geography
52
SUVs To Be Segment Of Choice
53
Demographic Forecast
54
Demographic Outlook
54
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
55
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
55
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
56
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
57
Methodology
59
Industry Forecasts
59
Sector-Specific Methodology
60
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
61
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
62

The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc