BMI View: BMI is targeting 33% growth in n ew vehicle sales over our newly extended forecast period to 2019, to reach around 53 9 ,000 units. Our positive view on the medium-term outlook for the UAE economy continues to underpin our upbeat stance. Despite the recent fall in the global oil price, we believe that the UAE can continue to record impressive rates of growth over the coming years.
BMI remains upbeat on the outlook for new car sales across 2015, forecasting 5.1% growth, to around the 425,000 unit mark. Despite the recent fall in the global oil price, we believe that the UAE will continue to record impressive rates of growth. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016, broadly in line with the previous three years. On an emirate level, we are most bullish about Dubai, particularly its real estate, shipping and construction sectors. Non-oil sector expansion in Abu Dhabi will remain robust, but the hydrocarbon sector will weigh on growth as we forecast OPEC oil prices to average USD52, USD57 and USD59 per barrrel in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively, from above USD100 in the past three years.
A host of leading indicators point to further economic expansion for the UAE. The country's purchasing managers' index for January came in at 59.4, the second highest figure in the world that month, underlining our bullish outlook on the UAE's non-oil economy. Even with the decline in oil revenues, we expect the UAE's model of government-driven development plans to continue apace. This should continue to provide support for commercial vehicle sales in particular. The federal government has made fiscal consolidation a priority over the past two years, which has somewhat cushioned the impact of much lower oil prices. While the government will fall into a sustained fiscal deficit, the UAE has the financial arsenal and the political necessity to continue spending.
Encouragingly for passenger car sales (including SUVs), the outlook for household...
The United Arab Emirates Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United Arab Emirates Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.