United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Lower oil prices will hit growth as government spending and consumer confidence falls. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.8% and 2.6% in 2016 and 2017 from an estimated 4.0% in 2015

  • We expect Dubai to outperform Abu Dhabi, with the former benefitting from increased activity in the trade and tourism sectors, as well as lower exposure to oil prices.

  • Credit growth to the private sector will remain relatively slow through 2016 as commercial banks continue to increase provisioning against potential loan losses due to the debt funding cliff.

Key Risks

  • Any attack by Islamist militants would result in a fundamental reappraisal of both the UAE's, and the wider region, risk profile.

  • A further uptick in tensions between the West and Iran could result in a deterioration in the UAE's sovereign risk profile given the close proximity and deep trade ties between the two countries.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.6 4.0 2.8 2.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 399.4 369.3 390.9 412.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.2
Exchange rate AED/USD, eop 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Budget balance, % of GDP 5.0 -5.9 -6.1 -4.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 14.5 3.6 1.2 2.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Slowing, But Non-Oil Sector To Outperform
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Deficits To Force Spending Cutbacks
11
Abu Dhabi Economic Outlook
12
Structural Slowdown In Place
12
TABLE: ABU DHABI - GDP FORECAST
13
Dubai Economic Outlook
14
Growth To Slow As Regional Slowdown Takes Its Toll
14
TABLE: DUBAI - GDP FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The UAE Economy To 2025
17
Greater Caution, Slower Growth
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
UAE: Caught Between Two Hegemons
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
21
Stable Outlook But Challenges Remain
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
26
Trade Procedures And Governance
27
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE RISK
27
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORT AND EXPORT PROCEDURES AND COSTS
28
TABLE: DOCUMENTS REQUIRED FOR IMPORTING AND EXPORTING
28
Vulnerability To Crime
28
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
33
Global Macro Outlook
33
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
33
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
33
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
34
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
34
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
35
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
37

Assess your risk exposure in United Arab Emirates with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in United Arab Emirates with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report