United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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United Arab Emirates Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Lower oil prices will hit growth as government spending and consumer confidence falls. We forecast real GDP growth at 2.8% and 2.6% in 2016 and 2017 from an estimated 4.0% in 2015

  • Dubai will see an even sharper slowdown as discretionary spending from the rest of the Gulf, and the impact of weaker currencies in China and India take their toll on investment ad spending.

  • Credit growth to the private sector will remain relatively slow through 2016 as commercial banks continue to increase provisioning against potential loan losses due to the debt funding cliff.

Key Risks

  • Any attack by Islamist militants would result in a fundamental reappraisal of both the UAE's, and the wider region, risk profile.

  • Any breakdown in the nuclear agreement the West and Iran could result in a deterioration in the UAE's sovereign risk profile given the close proximity and deep trade ties between the two countries.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2017)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.6 4.0 2.4 2.6
Nominal GDP, USDbn 399.4 369.3 389.0 410.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.2
Exchange rate AED/USD, eop 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67
Budget balance, % of GDP 5.0 -5.9 -6.1 -4.7
Current account balance, % of GDP 14.5 3.6 1.2 2.0
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1:Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
An Era Of Slower Growth
8
TABLE: BRENT PRICE AND UAE REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
Abu Dhabi Economic Growth Outlook
11
Abu Dhabi: New Era Of Slower Growth
11
TABLE: ABU DHABI - GDP DATA & FORECASTS
12
Dubai Economic Growth Outlook
13
Growth Slowing Considerably But No Recession
13
TABLE: DUBAI - GDP DATA & FORECASTS
14
Monetary Policy
15
Rising Interest Rates To Subdue Inflation
15
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
16
Monetary Policy Framework
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The UAE Economy To 2025
19
Greater Caution, Slower Growth
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Few Domestic Political Risks
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
23
Stable Outlook But Challenges Remain
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
28
Economic Openness
29
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
29
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
30
Availability Of Labour
34
TABLE: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
35
TABLE: TOP 10 ORIGIN COUNTRIES OF IMMIGRANT LABOUR ('000)
36
TABLE: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, '000
37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Summer Of Risk
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in United Arab Emirates with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in United Arab Emirates with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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