United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report

Published 12 August 2015

  • 64 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report

BMI View: We expect continued robust growth across the UAE's freight modes in the near and over our medium-term forecast period to 2019. Although growth will not be spectacular in most instances, this is a reflection of base effects and the maturity of the market. Massive investment into freight transport infrastructure - not least the development of the UAE's nascent rail network - will ensure that growth in freight volumes continues far beyond our forecast period. This will be driven not only by domestic demand, but will also be massively informed by the UAE's becoming one of the world's foremost global transhipment hubs.

Trade across the UAE will benefit from a resilient growth outlook, and we forecast a 6.4% real expansion in total trade in 2015, followed by 5.1% in 2016. Although this is slower than growth of 7.3% recorded in 2014, it is nonetheless robust given the fall in the oil price, and is predicated on our assumption that production will be maintained. We expect the UAE will continue to record impressive rates of growth over the coming years, even in a context of lower oil prices. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 and 3.8% in 2016, broadly in line with the previous three years, but above consensus estimates of 3.7% and 3.6% as collected by Bloomberg. The oil sector will see only minimal gains as weaker prices weigh on investment, however, this will not have a significant bearing on the non-oil sector with construction and private consumption set to continue growing apace.

Road haulage will remain the most important component of the UAE's freight mix over the coming years - and in the near term will receive a boost from lower oil prices - although once the new rail freight network begins to come online, its growth will taper as the new freight mode attracts volumes. Growth will be driven not only by private consumption growth, but also heavy industry. Even after the rail network's completion we do not see it losing importance. Indeed, our...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Trade Forecast
14
Table: Trade Overview (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
16
Table: Key Trade Indicators (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
16
Table: The UAE's Top Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
17
Table: The UAE's Top Export Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
18
Road Freight Forecast
19
Table: Road Freight (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
21
Air Freight Forecast
21
Table: Air Freight (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
24
Company Profile
25
Aramex
25
Etihad Cargo
29
Emirates SkyCargo
32
Political Outlook
35
Political Outlook I
35
Yemen: Drawn Into The Conflict
36
Libya: Further Entanglement Ahead
36
Egypt: Moving Away From Financial Support
37
Iraq: Slowly Disengaging
38
Iran: Strained, But Signs Of Improvement
38
Foreign Policy Based On Domestic Priorities
40
Table: UAE - Political Overview
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Oil Price Outlook
47
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
47
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
48
Macroeconomic Forecasts
50
Economic Analysis
50
Private Spending Growth To Remain High
51
Concerns Over Emiratisation Policies Resurface
52
Table: Economic Activity (United Arab Emirates 2010-2019)
54
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
54
Demographic Forecast
56
Demographic Outlook
56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
57
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
57
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
58
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
59
Methodology
61
Industry Forecast Methodology
61
Sector-Specific Methodology
62
Sources
62

The United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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