United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report

Published 03 February 2015

  • 69 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report

Our view on the UAE's freight transport sector remains overwhelmingly positive. Although our forecast for real GDP growth is for real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2015 - marginally stronger than the 3.9% we estimated for 2014, but slower than 2013's expansion of 5.2% - we expect that growth across most freight transport modes will range between 5.0% and 11.0%, driven by a trade expansion of 6.4%. Port Khalifa will be the outperformer, where we project that throughput will expand by 10.9%. The country dominates the freight transport sector in the region and its continued expansion to its ports and airports, now being matched by investment into the developing rail network, will ensure this remains the case.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 air freight tonnes through Dubai International Airport forecast to grow by 5.8% and to average 4.9% to 2019.

  • The Khalifa Port is forecast to enjoy gross tonnage handling growth of 10.9% in 2015. Growth over the medium term will average 10.0%.

  • The UAE's total trade real growth in 2015 forecast to be 6.4% and to average 4.8% over the medium term to 2019.

Key Industry Trends

Expansions Keeping UAE Ports Ahead Of The Game: One of the reasons the shipping sector in the UAE is so successful is because its ports are constantly improved and expanded. As demand for the facilities grows they continue to add new berths and invest in new state-of-the-art infrastructure. This is highlighted by the expansion of the port of Jebel Ali to 19mn TEUs capacity which is expected to be completed in 2019, and by a recent deal to expand Port Khalifa. UAE-based Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) has signed an AED300mn (USD81.68mn) financing agreement with local port operator Abu Dhabi Terminals to develop the facility. The operator will use the funds to build new facilities and increase the capacity of the terminal. The port's capacity will be increased from 2mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 2.5mn TEUs by 2017, according to Chief Financial Officer...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Air Freight
15
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
18
Ports World Leaders
18
Table: Maritime Freight (UAE 2011-2018)
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (United Arab Emirates 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (United Arab Emirates 2011-2018)
22
Table: The UAE's Main Import Partners
23
Table: The UAE's Main Export Partners
24
Market Overview
25
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Air Freight
30
Rail Freight
32
Maritime Freight
32
Company Profile
34
Aramex
34
Etihad Crystal Cargo
40
Emirates SkyCargo
46
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
49
Gulftainer
52
Abu Dhabi National Tanker Company
56
Gulf Energy Maritime
58
Gulf Navigation Holding
60
Political Outlook
64
Foreign Policy
64
Table: UAE - Political Table
67
Long-Term Political Outlook
67
Oil Price Outlook
74
Bunker fuel
74
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
74
The Storm Clears For Shipping
75
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
77
Long-Term Threats Linger
78
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
80
Risks To Outlook
80
Jet Fuel
81
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
81
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
81
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Diesel
87
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
87
New York's One-Off Heat Up
87
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
90
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
94
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
96
Risks To Outlook
100
Macroeconomic Forecasts
101
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
103
Non-Oil Sector To Become Growth Driver
105
Table: United Arab Emirates - Economic Activity
106
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112
Sources
113

The United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc