BMI View: We upgraded our forecasts for growth in the UAE's construction sector for 201 5 and up to the World Expo 2020 event in Dubai. Dubai will be the outperforming market, although we expect growth will remain healthy across the UAE , even with low prices . Government investment will be r obust in infrastructure sectors, while the biggest risk stems from private investment in Abu Dhabi , which will be adversely affected by lower oil prices.
W e see real growth of 8.3% y-o-y in 2015 (up from 4.8% last quarter), and average annual growth over the 2015-2019 period at 7.2% (up from 5.8%).
Factors Driving Construction Industry Growth
Lower oil prices pose little threat to the UAE's construction industry outlook. Abu Dhabi has the largest infrastructure investment programme in the UAE, with the water and power sectors securing AED17.5bn (USD4.7bn) in government financing over the next five years. Following this, the housing and social infrastructure sectors secured AED12.7bn (USD3.4bn). Dubai and the Northern Emirates' fiscal position, which relies much less on oil revenue, will be buoyed by our expectation for growth in the non-hydrocarbons sectors of the economy.
The residential and non-residential building outlook remains positive as measures to cool the market take effect. Numerous measures have been undertaken, such as rent caps and requirements of about 50% payment before property transfers occur, to prevent speculative buyers from overheating the residential market. Additionally, tax increases for Indian buyers should cool demand in the market.
More important than ever, considering the drop in oil prices, the UAE will continue to see major investment in tourism projects, in the infrastructure and non-residential building segments.
Large-scale mass transit projects are under way across the UAE, with the first sections of the Abu Dhabi metro and light-rail network set to be awarded and the extension of Dubai's metro expected to enter...
The United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.