United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : We forecast a continued rise in oil and gas production over the coming years, in large part driven by field expansion and EOR projects. The refining sector is also set for growth, which will crimp crude exports but bolster sales of higher value-added products. Energy-switching, efficiency gains and subsidy reduction will help slow the pace of gas demand growth. However, we see domestic demand continuing to outpace consumption in the UAE, driving continued growth in LNG imports over the forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,677.4 3,753.0 3,817.8 3,897.4 3,932.6 3,950.5 3,963.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 506.6 557.3 780.2 897.2 924.1 933.4 980.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 53.0 63.9 71.6 71.7 71.9 73.8 74.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 70.7 74.6 78.7 81.4 83.9 86.4 89.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 45.50 55.00 68.00 65.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • This quarter we have maintained our 2016-2025 forecasts for UAE's oil and gas reserves, which we expect to decline by 12.6% and 12.0% respectively. Considering that the country's acreage is well explored, we believe that only real upside potential comes from unconventionals.

  • Driven by field expansion and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, UAE's oil production is set to peak at 3.98mn bbl in 2022, before declining slightly to 3.97mn bbl by the end of our forecast period.

  • Supported by new production from Bab gas project, Zora and Shah gas fields, UAE's gas output is forecast to peak at 75.1bcm in 2021, followed by gradual declines due to maturing fields.

  • The expansion of the Ruwais facility increased the country's nameplate refining capacity to 1.12mn bbl in 2015. We forecast the opening of a modular refinery in Fujairah to increase this figure by another 7,500b/d in 2016. Greater output of refined products will turn the Emirates into a net refined products exporter already in 2016. We hold our view that exports will peak at around 144,000b/d in 2018, before declining back to 22,000b/d in 2025, pressured by surging domestic demand.

  • In late August 2016, Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) announced signed a loan agreement of up to USD378mn to ADCO, allocated for the development of the offshore Hail oilfield in Abu Dhabi.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Latest Updates
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
18
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Latest Updates
19
Structural Trends
19
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
21
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
22
Refining
23
Latest Updates
23
Structural Trends
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
25
Refined Fuels Consumption
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
26
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
30
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
31
Gas Consumption
32
Latest Updates
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
35
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
35
Trade - Oil
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
36
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
38
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
40
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
42
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
43
Industry Risk/Reward Index
44
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
45
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
UAE - Risk/Reward Index
50
UAE Upstream Index
50
UAE Downstream Index
50
Market Overview
51
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview
51
Regulatory Structure
51
Fiscal Regime
51
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms
51
Licensing Regime
52
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Refineries In The UAE
53
Oil Export Terminals
53
Table: UAE Export Terminals
53
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector
55
Company Profile
56
ADNOC
56
Table: Major Upstream Assets In UAE
57
Table: Key Financial Data
57
Regional Overview
58
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
58
Oil Production: Two Tiers Emerging
58
Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand Growth
60
Table: Gasoline-95 Pump Price June 2015 & March 2016 (Usd/Litre)
60
Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries Outcompete In Oversupplied Market
62
Gas Production: In Need Of More Gas
63
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
65
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
66
Glossary
67
Table: Glossary Of Terms
67
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Source
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
71
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
73
Table: Weighting
74

The United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United Arab Emirates including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.