United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : A pipeline of projects under development will boost gas output growth over the coming two to three years. However, the high cost and technically challenging nature of the non-associated gas resource base, coupled by rising gas reinjection in to the UAE's maturing oilfields, will dampen growth in the longer term. Oil production rests heavily on the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques, which may come under strain in a lower commodity price environment. Despite moves towards energy subsidy reform, we forecast strong growth in both oil and gas consumption, driving rising imports of pipeline gas and LNG. However, substantial expansion of domestic refining capacity will turn the UAE into net exporter of fuels from 2016.

Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,448.2 3,677.4 3,763.8 3,845.7 3,935.7 3,975.8 3,995.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 54.1 57.6 63.9 71.6 71.7 71.9 73.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 66.7 70.7 74.5 78.6 81.4 83.8 86.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 501.6 506.6 557.3 780.2 897.2 924.2 933.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 694.0 716.2 740.6 765.0 790.2 815.5 840.8
Brent, USD/bbl 108.70 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil & gas sector:

  • A number of projects under development will boost oil and gas production in the coming years. However, the UAE is heavily reliant on maturing oil fields and accelerated depletion rates in a lower oil price environment remain a risk to the sector.

  • The UAE holds little unexplored territory and the space for a major new discovery is limited; reserves will be supported by continued improvement in recovery rates.

  • Refined fuels consumption growth is set to remain strong, despite ongoing subsidy reform. The impact of reforms will be somewhat blunted in the short run by the sharp fall in international oil prices and a sustained uptrend in vehicle sales.

  • Gas consumption growth will remain strong, although the pace of growth will slow progressively due to increased electricity tariffs and diversification of the domestic power mix towards nuclear and renewables.

  • The UAE has seen its refined capacity and refined fuels output grow significantly in 2015 as the Ruwais refinery expansion was brought on stream. The UAE will become a net exporter of refined fuels from 2016, added to its substantial crude export volumes.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
10
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
10
Upstream Projects
13
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
15
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
15
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
17
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
18
Refining
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
21
Refined Fuels Consumption
23
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
23
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
28
Trade - Oil
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
36
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
38
Industry Risk/Reward Index
43
Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index (RRI)
43
Middle East Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
44
Limited Opportunities Downstream
47
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
47
UAE - Risk/Reward Index
49
UAE Upstream Index
49
UAE Downstream Index
49
Market Overview
50
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview
50
Overview/State Role
50
Licensing And Regulation
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In The UAE
51
Oil Export Terminals
51
Table: UAE Export Terminals
52
LNG
52
Gas Pipelines
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Competitive Landscape Summary
53
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector
54
Company Profile
55
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
55
Dolphin Energy
61
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation (Emarat)
64
Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC)
67
ExxonMobil
71
BP
74
Total
76
Royal Dutch Shell
78
Other Summaries
80
Regional Overview
86
Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview
86
Oil Production - Low Production Costs Support Expansion
86
Oil Consumption - Downstream Expansion, Subsidies Drive Demand
88
Refining Capacity - Outcompeting With Advanced Mega Refineries
89
Gas Production - More Gas Needed
90
Gas Consumption - Gas Switch Boosting Demand
92
Global Industry Overview
94
Global Energy Market Overview
94
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
94
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
97
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
98
Appendix
100
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
100
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
100
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
101
Middle East - Regional Appendix
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Consumption, 2016-2024 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
108
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
108
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
109
United Arab Emirates - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
110
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
110
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
110
United Arab Emirates - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
111
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
112
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
113
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
114
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
115
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United Arab Emirates 2019-2024)
116
Glossary
118
Table: Glossary Of Terms
118
Methodology
120
Industry Forecast Methodology
120
Source
122
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
122
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
124
Table: Weighting
125

The United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United Arab Emirates including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.