United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View : While the government will fall short of its 3.5mn b/d production target for 2020, oil production is set for significant growth over the coming three to five years. The outlook on gas is more bearish, due to the high cost and technically challenging nature of the country's non-associated gas resource base. Rising gas reinjection into the UAE's maturing oilfields will also undercut marketable production over the longer term. The consumption outlook for both oil and gas is strong, although ongoing subsidy reform will somewhat temper growth. The UAE will grow increasingly dependent on imports of pipeline gas and LNG across the forecast period. However, it is set to become a net exporter of fuels from 2016 due to the expansion at Ruwais.

Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3,677.4 3,690.3 3,755.7 3,827.2 3,865.8 3,885.4 3,898.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 59.6 63.9 71.6 71.7 71.9 73.2 73.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 70.7 74.6 78.7 81.4 83.9 86.4 89.0
Refined products production, 000b/d 506.6 557.3 780.2 897.2 924.1 933.4 942.7
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 716.2 740.6 765.0 790.2 815.5 840.8 866.0
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE's oil & gas sector:

  • A number of projects under development will boost oil and gas production in the coming years. However, the UAE is heavily reliant on maturing oil fields and accelerated depletion rates in a lower oil price environment remain a risk to the sector.

  • The UAE holds little unexplored territory and the space for a major new discovery is limited; reserves will be supported by continued improvement in recovery rates.

  • Refined fuels consumption growth is set to remain strong, despite ongoing subsidy reform. The impact of reforms will be somewhat blunted in the short run by the sharp fall in international oil prices and a sustained uptrend in vehicle sales.

  • Gas consumption growth will remain strong, although the pace of growth will slow progressively due to increased electricity tariffs and diversification of the domestic power mix towards nuclear and renewables.

  • The UAE has seen its refined capacity and refined fuels output grow significantly in 2015 as the Ruwais refinery expansion was brought on stream. The UAE will become a net exporter of refined fuels from 2016, added to its substantial crude export volumes.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: United Arab Emirates Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates
14
Structural Trends
14
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
16
Table: Oil Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
16
Upstream Production - Gas
17
Latest Updates
17
Structural Trends
17
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
19
Table: Gas Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
20
Refining
21
Latest Updates
21
Structural Trends
21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
23
Refined Fuels Consumption
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
29
Gas Consumption
30
Latest Updates
30
Structural Trends
30
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
33
Table: Gas Consumption (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
33
Trade - Oil
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends: Crude Oil
34
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
35
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
36
Structural Trends: Refined Fuels
36
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
37
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019)
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025)
41
Industry Risk/Reward Index
42
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
42
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
43
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
43
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
45
UAE - Risk/Reward Index
48
UAE Upstream Index
48
UAE Downstream Index
48
Market Overview
49
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview
49
Regulatory Structure
49
Fiscal Regime
49
Table: UAE Main Fiscal Terms
49
Licensing Regime
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
51
Oil Refineries
51
Table: Refineries In The UAE
51
Oil Export Terminals
51
Table: UAE Export Terminals
51
Competitive Landscape
52
Competitive Landscape Summary
52
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE's Oil & Gas Sector
53
Company Profile
54
ADNOC
54
BP
58
Dolphin Energy
60
Emarat
63
ENOC
66
ExxonMobil
69
Royal Dutch Shell
72
Total
74
Other Summaries
76
Regional Overview
82
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
82
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
82
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
84
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
86
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
87
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
89
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
90
Glossary
92
Table: Glossary Of Terms
92
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Source
96
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
96
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
98
Table: Weighting
99

The United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United Arab Emirates including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.