BMI View: The UAE petrochemicals industry will see strong growth in output in 2016 as it continues its massive capacity expansion, but in order to defend margins it will have to diversify markets away from the sluggish Chinese market. The increased utilisation of naphtha feedstock should enable the UAE to take advantage of lower crude prices, but it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to see off the massive amount of Iranian polymer set to flood the Asian market in the years ahead.
The Chemaweyaat's complex will come into operation in 2016, including an olefins plant, an aromatics complex and a range of downstream polymer and chemical units. The first part of the development, Tacaamol, will use heavy naphtha feed for aromatics units and a lighter naphtha feed for a 1.5mntpa mixed feed cracker. By 2016, BMI expects ethylene capacity of 5mntpa in the UAE, up from 2mntpa in 2013, with PE more than tripling to 3.52mntpa and PP rising by nearly 170% to 2.14mntpa over the period.
The availability of naphtha in the UAE is being boosted by refinery expansion at Ruwais, helping to retain the Emirati industry's competitive edge and enabling it to produce a wider range of products. The cheaper price of naphtha should also work to boost the sector on global markets. The 400,000 barrels per day (b/d) Ruwais refinery is undergoing an expansion which will boost total output to 417,000b/d.
As the Chinese market cools and the European economic recovery remains uncertain, the UAE will be looking to other emerging markets, particularly India which is set to see its automotive sector fuel a range of polymer and rubber imports.
In BMI's Middle Eastern Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index matrix, the UAE has a score of 65.4 points, up 0.2 points due to progress on petrochemicals expansion. The score is supported by the increased use of lower cost naphtha, which should help support margins. The country retains its second place in the Middle East and Africa RRI table,...
The United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Emirati petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Emirati petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
- Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).
BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global & Regional Market Overview
Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.
Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:
Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene
Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.
The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.