BMI View: The UAE ' s pharmaceutical and healthcare market will continue to stimulate interest amongst generic and innovative drugmakers alike. The roll - out of mandatory health insurance schemes and the UAE ' s growing reputation as a leading medical tourism hub will help drive demand for more advanced medicines and health services. However, the reduction of innovative medicine prices, as part of efforts to bring drug prices in line with other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, will limit multinational drugmakers ' revenues in the short term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: AED8.84bn (USD2.41bn) in 2015 to AED9.61bn (USD2.62bn) in 2016; +8.7% in local currency terms and +8.8% US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter based on adjustmen ts made to historical data.
Healthcare: AED56.33bn (USD15.34bn) in 2015 to AED59.15bn (USD16.12bn) in 2016; +5.0% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.199||2.407||2.619||2.842||3.076||3.321||3.578|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.55||0.65||0.68||0.70||0.71||0.72||0.73|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||15.0||15.7||16.3||16.8||17.2||17.6||17.9|
|Health spending, USDbn||14.634||15.336||16.117||16.960||17.887||18.907||20.033|
The UAE is one of the most rewarding markets for pharmaceutical and healthcare providers in the Middle East and African region. In our Q117 Index, the UAE scores 61.1, meaning it remains the most attractive market in our Middle East and African regional matrix, followed closely by Saudi Arabia (60.4) and Israel (55.0). The score is reflective of the market's strong growth prospects (Sector Value Growth score of 8.4 out of 12), with a fast-growing private healthcare sector, which brings with it demand for innovative drugs. The UAE's relative political stability also contributes to the country's high regional score.
The Dubai Health Authority has given employers and sponsors until the end of 2016 to purchase health insurance or face fines, with no further extensions to be given to the original deadline of June 30 2016.
In November 2016, the Gulf Medical University, in association with Thumbay Medical Tourism, held the 3rd Annual Health and Medical Tourism Conference at Dusit Thani Hotel. The event saw a gathering of industry experts from healthcare, travel and medical education, discussing the latest trends and ways to capitalize on the UAE's growing stature as a top medical tourism hub.
Also in November, the Ministry of Health and Prevention, in association with AstraZeneca Gulf, launched an awareness campaign in conjunction with World Diabetes Day, which offered medical check-ups and free counselling about diabetes to the UAE community.
In October 2016, Julphar launched two new Type II diabetes medicines, Xelevia and Velmetia, as part of the licence, supply and co-marketing agreement that the company signed with Merck Sharp & Dohme.
In September 2016, the prices of 657 drugs were reduced as part of the Ministry of Health and Prevention's seventh and last initiative to reduce drug prices and bring them in line with other GCC countries.
BMI Economic View
The UAE's economy is in the midst of an era of much slower growth given lower oil prices, and the resultant cutback in government and private spending. We expect growth to bottom in 2016 before a slow uptick over the coming years as the non-oil sector becomes the key growth driver. We forecast a real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2016 and 2.4% in 2017 compared with 3.8% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The UAE faces few domestic political threats over the coming years and we expect it to remain one of the most secure countries in the Middle East. While we believe no country is inherently immune to experiencing large-scale unrest, we remain confident of broad social stability and policy continuity over the coming years.
The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.