United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The UAE will remain one of the most attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets in the Middle East and Africa Region. A rising chronic disease burden will drive demand for high-value medicines, particularly cancer drugs. The market is dominated by patented medicines, mainly imported from W estern suppliers due to their perceived superiority. However, this current model is unsustainable over the long term and as such, the supply of generic cancer medicines in the UAE will increasingly be satisfied by the domestic industry, limiting the country's escalating healthcare costs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AED10.77bn (USD2.93bn) in 2015 to AED11.62bn (USD3.17bn) in 2016; +7.9% in local currency terms and +8.0% US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AED56.32bn (USD15.33bn) in 2015 to AED59.18bn (USD16.13bn) in 2016; +5.1% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 4.450 2.930 3.170 3.410 3.670 3.940 4.230
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.11 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.87
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 30.4 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0
Health spending, USDbn 14.630 15.330 16.130 16.990 17.950 19.010 20.180

Risk/Reward Index

The UAE is one of the most rewarding markets for pharmaceutical and healthcare providers in the Middle East and African region. It has a fast-growing private healthcare sector, which brings with it demand for innovative and patented drugs. The UAE's relative political stability also contributes to the country's high regional score. In our Q4 2016 Index, the UAE scores 61.1, keeping it the most attractive market in our Middle East and African regional matrix, followed closely by Saudi Arabia (60.4) and Israel (55.0).

Latest Updates

  • In August 2016, the Ministry of Health (MoH) reduced the prices of 762 drugs from between 5-63%, including medicines for cardiovascular diseases, central nervous system disorders, infections, respiratory diseases, endocrine and others.

  • In August 2016, UAE-based Julphar reported a 7.7% y-o-y decline in sales revenue - amounting to AED759.7mn (USD206.8mn) - and a 10.3% y-o-y fall in net profits - recorded at AED133.8bn (USD364.4mn) for H116.

  • In June 2016, Julphar launched its new proton acid suppressor tablets, Pantonix (pantoprazole) in the UAE.

  • In June 2016, UAE-based Life Pharma announced its intentions to construct a new oncology manufacturing facility in the second half of 2016.

  • In late June, demand for health insurance in Dubai experienced a spike as sponsors rushed to secure mandatory health insurance before the June 30 deadline required by law (for companies with 100 or less employees).

BMI Economic View

Several leading indicators are pointing to a slowdown in Dubai's economy, but we do not think the emirate is headed for a recession. While external headwinds will remain strong, most notably in oil, the construction sector and export opportunities will prevent a downturn. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017, following an estimated 4.4% in 2015.

BMI Political View

The UAE is one of the best insulated countries from regional instability and we see few risks to the status quo over the coming years. However, it is important to note threats facing security in the country, namely the possibility of terrorist attack or domestic opposition, even though they remain minimal.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2020)
29
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (United Arab Emirates 2014-2020)
32
Industry Risk/Reward Index
33
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
33
United Arab Emirates Risk/Reward Index
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Regulatory Review
43
Intellectual Property Issues
45
Pricing Regime
48
Market Overview
51
Healthcare Sector
52
Table: Healthcare Resources (United Arab Emirates 2010-2015)
56
Table: Healthcare Personnel (United Arab Emirates 2010-2015)
56
Table: Healthcare Activity (United Arab Emirates 2010-2015)
57
Research & Development
62
Clinical Trials
63
Epidemiology
64
Table: UAE Healthcare Demand Split By Therapeutic Area
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Research-Based Industry
67
Table: Abu Dhabi's Top Five Best Selling Drugs In Value Terms By Therapeutic Area
68
Table: Multinational Market Activity
70
Generic Drugmakers
71
Pharmaceutical Distribution & Retail Sector
72
Company Profile
74
Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (Julphar)
74
Neopharma
78
Demographic Forecast
81
Demographic Outlook
81
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
82
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
82
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
83
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
84
Glossary
86
Methodology
88
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
88
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
88
Notes On Methodology
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
90
Index Overview
91
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
91
Indicator Weightings
92

The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.