BMI View: The UAE will remain one of the most attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets in the Middle East and Africa Region. A rising chronic disease burden will drive demand for high-value medicines, particularly cancer drugs. The market is dominated by patented medicines, mainly imported from W estern suppliers due to their perceived superiority. However, this current model is unsustainable over the long term and as such, the supply of generic cancer medicines in the UAE will increasingly be satisfied by the domestic industry, limiting the country's escalating healthcare costs.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: AED10.77bn (USD2.93bn) in 2015 to AED11.62bn (USD3.17bn) in 2016; +7.9% in local currency terms and +8.0% US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.
Healthcare: AED56.32bn (USD15.33bn) in 2015 to AED59.18bn (USD16.13bn) in 2016; +5.1% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||4.450||2.930||3.170||3.410||3.670||3.940||4.230|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.11||0.79||0.81||0.83||0.84||0.86||0.87|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||30.4||19.1||19.6||20.1||20.5||20.8||21.0|
|Health spending, USDbn||14.630||15.330||16.130||16.990||17.950||19.010||20.180|
The UAE is one of the most rewarding markets for pharmaceutical and healthcare providers in the Middle East and African region. It has a fast-growing private healthcare sector, which brings with it demand for innovative and patented drugs. The UAE's relative political stability also contributes to the country's high regional score. In our Q4 2016 Index, the UAE scores 61.1, keeping it the most attractive market in our Middle East and African regional matrix, followed closely by Saudi Arabia (60.4) and Israel (55.0).
In August 2016, the Ministry of Health (MoH) reduced the prices of 762 drugs from between 5-63%, including medicines for cardiovascular diseases, central nervous system disorders, infections, respiratory diseases, endocrine and others.
In August 2016, UAE-based Julphar reported a 7.7% y-o-y decline in sales revenue - amounting to AED759.7mn (USD206.8mn) - and a 10.3% y-o-y fall in net profits - recorded at AED133.8bn (USD364.4mn) for H116.
In June 2016, Julphar launched its new proton acid suppressor tablets, Pantonix (pantoprazole) in the UAE.
In June 2016, UAE-based Life Pharma announced its intentions to construct a new oncology manufacturing facility in the second half of 2016.
In late June, demand for health insurance in Dubai experienced a spike as sponsors rushed to secure mandatory health insurance before the June 30 deadline required by law (for companies with 100 or less employees).
BMI Economic View
Several leading indicators are pointing to a slowdown in Dubai's economy, but we do not think the emirate is headed for a recession. While external headwinds will remain strong, most notably in oil, the construction sector and export opportunities will prevent a downturn. Overall, we forecast real GDP growth of 2.2% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017, following an estimated 4.4% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The UAE is one of the best insulated countries from regional instability and we see few risks to the status quo over the coming years. However, it is important to note threats facing security in the country, namely the possibility of terrorist attack or domestic opposition, even though they remain minimal.
The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.