United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The UAE will continue to be an attractive emerging market for pharmaceutical companies as a result of continued investment into the country's healthcare sector. The rising prevalence of chronic diseases, such as diabetes, is prompting both the public and private sector to improve the population's access to healthcare services - this will act as the main driver of pharmaceutical expenditure in the UAE. However, d uring this period of oil price-driven austerity, the government is more likely to cut back spending on higher-value innovative drugs, posing a risk to multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AED9.46bn (USD2.58bn) in 2014 to AED10.32bn (USD2.81bn) in 2015; +9.1% in local currency terms and +9.2% US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: AED49.88bn (USD13.58bn) in 2014 to AED52.64bn (USD14.34bn) in 2015; +5.5% in local currency terms and 5.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 2.299 2.576 2.812 3.055 3.305 3.554 3.807
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.57 0.63 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.78
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 17.9 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 20.9 21.0
Health spending, USDbn 12.876 13.581 14.344 15.163 16.060 17.043 18.092

Risk/Reward Index

The UAE is one of the most rewarding markets for pharmaceutical and healthcare providers in the Middle East and African region. It has a fast-growing private healthcare sector, which brings with it demand for innovative and patented drugs. The UAE's relative political stability also contributes to the country's high regional score. In our Q1 2016 Indices, the UAE scores 62.5, up from last quarter's score of 61.8, making it the most attractive market in our Middle East and African regional matrix followed closely by Saudi Arabia (59.8).

Latest Updates

  • In November 2015, the Dubai Health Authority (DHA) launched an innovative diabetes management protocol, supported by multinational drugmakers Novartis, Novo Nordisk, and Merck Sharp and Dohme.

  • In November 2015, the DHA revealed that Dubai had treated 135,000 medical tourists in 2014, representing around 1.1% of the total tourist arrivals in the country. The DHA expects figures to increase to 170,000 medical tourists in 2016, with revenues of about AED1.1bn (USD299.5mn).

  • The UAE's health ministry has allocated about AED462mn (USD125.78mn) for the procurement of medicines and medical supplies in 2016 in order to ensure an uninterrupted supply. From that amount, around AED321mn (USD87.39mn) will be used for the purchase of medicines.

  • In October 2015, the UAE's health ministry cleared 90 new complementary medicines as part of its strategy to include herbal and traditional drugs in the mainstream healthcare systems.

  • Work on Abu Dhabi's first cancer drug plant is expected to being in 2016. The USD40mn facility aims to manufacture more than 55 products and employ about 150 employees when operational in 2017.

BMI Economic View

The UAE's economic growth will slow over the coming quarters given lower oil prices; however growth rates will still be impressive. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017, from an estimated 4.0% in 2015.

BMI Political View

The UAE is one of the best insulated from regional instability and we see few risks to the status quo over the coming years. However, it is important to note threats facing security in the country, namely the possibility of terrorist attack or domestic opposition, even though they remain minimal.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: UAE Healthcare Demand Split By Therapeutic Area
24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
28
Generic Drug Market Forecast
29
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
31
OTC Market Forecast
31
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2011-2019)
33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (United Arab Emirates 2013-2019)
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Private Spending Growth To Remain High
38
Modest Growth For Oil Sector
40
Table: Economic Activity (United Arab Emirates 2010-2019)
41
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Arab Emirates 2012-2019)
41
Industry Risk Reward Indices
43
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index
43
United Arab Emirates Risk/Reward Index
50
Rewards
50
Risks
50
Market Overview
52
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Table: UAE Healthcare Demand Split By Therapeutic Area
55
Healthcare Sector
55
Healthcare Sector Developments
57
Table: Healthcare Resources (United Arab Emirates 2009-2014)
60
Table: Healthcare Personnel (United Arab Emirates 2009-2014)
61
Table: Healthcare Activity (United Arab Emirates 2009-2014)
61
Health Insurance
61
Research & Development
66
Regulatory Development
69
Regulatory Regime
69
Regulatory Developments
70
Pharmacovigilance
70
Pharmaceutical Advertising
71
Intellectual Property Issues
72
Pricing Regime
74
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
75
Regional Harmonisation
78
Competitive Landscape
81
Pharmaceutical Sector
81
Table: Abu Dhabi's Top Five Best Selling Drugs In Value Terms By Therapeutic Area
81
Domestic Industry
82
Foreign Industry
84
Recent Company Developments
85
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
85
Recent Developments
86
Company Profile
87
Abbott Laboratories
87
GlaxoSmithKline
89
Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (Julphar)
91
Johnson & Johnson
95
Medpharma
97
Merck & Co
99
Modern Pharmaceutical Company
101
Neopharma
103
Novartis
106
Pfizer
108
Sanofi-Aventis
110
Demographic Forecast
112
Demographic Outlook
112
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
113
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
113
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
114
Table: Population By Age Group (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
114
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Arab Emirates 1990-2025)
115
Glossary
117
Methodology
119
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
119
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
119
Notes On Methodology
120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
121
Index Overview
122
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
122
Indicator Weightings
123

The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.