BMI View: The sixth initiative of the UAE's medicine price reduction process will not significantly affect the country's pharmaceutical market. For drugmakers in the region, lower profit margins will be offset by increasing sales volumes. The UAE will continue to rely on imported medicines ; however , domestic manufacturing potential will expand over the long term. Fast-track approval ti mes, high affordability levels and growth of medical tourism will ensure that the UAE remains an attractive destination for multinational pharmaceutical companies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: AED10.77bn (USD2.93bn) in 2015 to AED11.70bn (USD3.19bn) in 2016; +8.6% in local currency terms and +8.7% US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards slightly from last quarter.
Healthcare: AED54.56bn (USD14.85bn) in 2015 to AED57.81bn (USD15.75bn) in 2016; +6.0% in both local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||2.689||2.933||3.189||3.450||3.710||3.974||4.247|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.65||0.77||0.78||0.79||0.80||0.81||0.81|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||19.3||19.7||20.2||20.7||21.0||21.2||21.3|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.941||14.854||15.751||16.673||17.682||18.770||19.942|
The UAE is one of the most rewarding markets for pharmaceutical and healthcare providers in the Middle East and African region. It has a fast-growing private healthcare sector, which brings with it demand for innovative and patented drugs. The UAE's relative political stability also contributes to the country's high regional score. In our Q216 Indices, the UAE scores 62.5, unchanged from last quarter's score, keeping it the most attractive market in our Middle East and African regional matrix followed closely by Saudi Arabia (59.7).
In January 2016, the UAE's Health ministry cut the prices of 142 innovative drugs by up to 66% as part of the sixth initiative of 'Reduction in Medicine Prices'.
In January 2016, Aster DM Healthcare finalised its initial public offering after the opening of the group's largest UAE hospital - the first of five planned across the country.
In December 2015, the Dubai Health Authority (DHA) introduced standards for respiratory care in Dubai to unify management of respiratory diseases for patients.
In December 2015, UAE-based NeoBiocon collaborated with Novartis Middle East FZE to market the latter's vildagliptin products Jalra and Jalra-M in UAE after receiving approvals from the UAE's health ministry.
In November 2015, the DHA launched an innovative diabetes management protocol, supported by multinational drugmakers Novartis, Novo Nordisk and Merck Sharpe & Dohme.
BMI Economic View
The UAE's economic growth will slow over the coming quarters given lower oil prices, and the resultant cutback in government and private spending. The non-oil sector will become the major growth driver. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017, from an estimated 4.0% in 2015.
BMI Political View
The UAE will continue to pursue a careful balancing act between Iran and Saudi Arabia, while trying to stay within the GCC political zone of influence and at the same keep Iran on side and benefiting from its reintegration into the global market.
The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.