United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 29 December 2014

  • 125 pages
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$1,295.00
United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The UAE will retain its position as an attractive market for innovative drugmakers due to the population's preference for patented drugs, high per capita expenditure on pharmaceuticals and continued government investment in the healthcare sector. Pharmaceutical companies with product portfolios geared towards the treatment of chronic diseases will be provided with a rapidly expanding patient base. However, we highlight that medicine price cuts throughout the Gulf Cooperation Council states will become more frequent, dampen ing profit margins for innovative drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: AED8.14bn (USD2.22bn) in 2013 to AED8.30bn (USD2.26bn) in 2014; +2.0% in local currency and US dollar terms. Forecast adjusted from last quarter to better suit current market conditions.

  • Healthcare: AED42.68bn (USD11.62bn) in 2013 to AED44.93bn (USD12.24bn) in 2014; +5.3% in local currency terms and +5.4% US dollar terms. Forecast revised downward from last quarter to better suit current market conditions.

Risk/Reward Index

In our Q414 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI), the UAE scores 58.6 and is ranked second out of a total of 31 markets in our Middle East and Africa regional matrix.

Key Trends & Developments

November 2014

  • The Dubai Health Authority (DHA) imposed a price cap on the cost of health services in Dubai, which is expected to bring a sustainable synergy between healthcare providers and patients' interests. The DHA has set a 4.2% limit for 2015 effective from January 1, to ensure that healthcare providers do not exploit the free market principles. The cap is not a price-fixing measure but a regulatory mechanism aimed to balance supply and demand, according to the DHA. Under the new policy, the DHA will investigate the validity and purpose of each price increase application by a healthcare provider on a single service-by-service basis, as opposed to a blanket hike. The DHA will also impose severe penalties on violators...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: UAE Healthcare Demand Split By Therapeutic Area
21
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
22
Patented Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2010-2018)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts Local Currency (United Arab Emirates 2012-2018)
30
Other Healthcare Data
30
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
33
Oil Sector To See Only Marginal Gains
34
Fiscal Position Remains Solid
35
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Economic Activity (United Arab Emirates 2009-2018)
37
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United Arab Emirates 2011-2018)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
39
United Arab Emirates Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
48
Industry Trends And Developments
50
Epidemiology
50
Table: UAE Healthcare Demand Split By Therapeutic Area
51
Healthcare Sector
55
Healthcare Sector Developments
57
Health Insurance
62
Research & Development
66
Regulatory Development
68
Regulatory Regime
68
Regulatory Developments
69
Pharmacovigilance
70
Pharmaceutical Advertising
70
Intellectual Property Issues
71
Pricing Regime
73
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
75
Regional Harmonisation
77
Competitive Landscape
80
Pharmaceutical Sector
80
Table: Abu Dhabi's Top Five Best Selling Drugs In Value Terms By Therapeutic Area
80
Domestic Industry
81
Foreign Industry
83
Recent Company Developments
84
Pharmaceutical Distribution And Retail
85
Recent Developments
86
Company Profile
87
Gulf Pharmaceutical Industries (Julphar)
87
Modern Pharmaceutical Company
90
Neopharma
92
Medpharma
95
GlaxoSmithKline
97
Pfizer
99
Novartis
101
Johnson & Johnson
104
Sanofi-Aventis
106
Abbott Laboratories
108
Merck & Co
110
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115
Glossary
116
Methodology
118
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Notes On Methodology
119
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
120
Ratings Overview
121
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
121
Indicator Weightings
122

The United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United Arab Emirates Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United Arab Emirates, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Emirati pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc