United Arab Emirates Power Report

Published 01 April 2015

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United Arab Emirates Power Report

BMI View: This quarter we have extended our forecasts to 2024. W e maintain that the UAE's focus on expanding its nascent nuclear and solar industries will result in these two sectors making a much greater contribution to both the country's electricity capacity and generation mix over our forecast period. As such, the role of natural gas in the power mix will diminish, freeing up gas for export. Yet we remain sceptical about the ability of the country to meet its targets with the anticipated speed.

The UAE government - at both the federal and emirate levels - will continue to prioritise generating capacity expansion programmes, focusing on integrating a wider range of fuel sources into its electricity mix. Nuclear and renewable energy are high on the list of priorities, as the government looks to conserve domestic hydrocarbon reserves for export. Natural gas currently accounts for the bulk of total electricity generation in the UAE (99% according to BMI 2014 forecasts).

Despite the dominance of natural gas, nuclear and renewables will grow significantly over our 10-year forecast period, as a strong project pipeline for both nuclear reactors and solar power plants begins to go online. We expect nuclear generation to total nearly 37 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2024, while solar generation will reach 3.9TWh (from a total installed solar capacity base of 2.3GW). This will result in natural gas' contribution to the mix falling to roughly 76.77%.

Key Trends And Developments

  • Dubai is positioning itself as a major investment destination for international solar power developers - underscored by our broader outlook for strong growth in solar capacity in the UAE. Intense competition when bidding for solar projects, the construction of a solar panel manufacturing facility and an improving regulatory environment provide a blueprint for other countries in the Middle East to follow.

  • Saudi Arabian company ACWA Power International is to secure a EUR308mn (USD344mn)...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
United Arab Emirates Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Arab Emirates 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Arab Emirates 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
United Arab Emirates Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2018-2023)
15
Table: Planned UAE Nuclear Power Reactors
19
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2018-2023)
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
MENA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
28
United Arab Emirates Power Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Rewards
29
Risks
29
Market Overview
31
Key Policies And Market Structure
31
Regulation And Competition
31
Sustainable Energy Policies
32
United Arab Emirates Power Projects Database
33
Table: Projects - Power
33
Competitive Landscape
37
DEWA
37
ADWEA
38
TAQA
38
Company Profile
39
TAQA
39
Regional Overview
42
MEA Power Regional Overview
42
Glossary
48
Table: Glossary Of Terms
48
Methodology
49
Methodology And Sources
49
Industry Forecast Methodology
49
Sources
52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
54

The United Arab Emirates Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Arab Emirates Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks United Arab Emirates's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc