BMI View: This quarter our forecasts remain virtually unchanged , and we co ntinue to hold a n upbeat outlook for the UAE power sector - this is driven b y the government 's efforts to expand its power capacity . As corroborated by recent developments, we continue to expect the UA E to focus on expanding its nascent nuclear and solar industries , which will result in these two sectors making a much greater contribution to the country's electricity capacity and generation mix over our forecast period. W hile solar and nuclear gain traction , the role of natural gas in the power mix will diminish, freeing up gas for export. Yet we remain sceptical about the ability of the country to meet its targets with the expected speed.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||122.600||128.030||135.970||143.010||149.680||157.310||164.410|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||114.5||119.2||126.7||133.9||140.8||148.5||155.4|
|Capacity, Net, MW||29,790.4||31,241.4||34,130.5||36,830.5||39,975.6||43,331.4||44,980.7|
Key Trends And Developments
Nuclear power generation will be a key component of the UAE's power mix diversification strategy over the next decade. We believe increasing natural gas imports, due to strong power consumption growth and heavy reliance on gas-fired power generation, will be the key driver of such efforts. The continued growth in gas demand will reinforce government support for diversification, adding tailwinds to nuclear power, as well as renewables, over the longer term. Despite the dominance of natural gas, nuclear and renewables will grow significantly over our 10-year forecast period, as a strong project pipeline for nuclear reactors and solar power plants begins to go online.
The UAE's position as a GCC regional hotspot for solar development will remain unrivalled over our 10-year forecast period, as advantageous climatic conditions, the increasing cost competitiveness of solar power and strong government commitment to power mix diversification drive growth. The strengthening project pipeline is testament to this view.
Inefficient consumption of electricity and a reliance on energy-intensive water desalination plants support our bullish outlook for power consumption in the UAE over the next decade. We expect the government to aim to curb such growth through boosting energy efficiency - efforts we believe will centre on implementing measures that ensure smarter consumption of electricity and water. We expect opportunities to increasingly be on offer for companies that operate in this space, and in turn, this will present a downside risk to our power consumption forecast.
The United Arab Emirates Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The United Arab Emirates Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks United Arab Emirates's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).