BMI View: Our outlook for the UAE telecommunications market remains positive. Mobile market growth has been strong in 2016 , despite penetration rates exceeding 1 80%. The market continues to benefit from strong GDP per capita, high levels of disposable income and a strong influx of migrant s . W e expect this positive growth to continue throughout our five- year foreca st to 2020. The country ' s two network operators, Etisalat and du, compete aggressively with one another and are focused on technological innovation, capital investment and the development of new products and services. We believe that the high degree of competitio n in the country has led to significant increases in technological uptake. We expect continued 4G and 4.5G/LTE-Advanced growth to be important market drivers in the latter years of our forecast, further propelled by price cuts and advances in value-added services and offere d content.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The mobile market added 1.107mn subscribers in the first nine months of 2016, with the market ending September with a total of 18.51mn subscribers, for a penetration rate of 189.7%, based on data reported by Etisalat and du. We expect the UAE mobile market to maintain positive growth throughout our forecast period through to 2020, due to strong competition between Etisalat and du, as well as the continued influx of migrant workers and temporary visitors on the back of an improving economy, a stable political environment and major events in the country, such as the Dubai 2020 World Trade Expo.
By the end of 2020, we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to have risen to 20. 2 6 m n. Growth across the market as a whole will be driven by migration to 3G/4G services and by a trend towards the use of multiple SIM-connected devices.
Although mobile average revenues per user (ARPUs) will continue to decline, we expect the pace of decline to become much more gradual as ARPU contraction becomes offset by growing consumer appetite for mobile data services. Despite a boost from data services, ARPU will decline to USD92 by the end of 2020.
We maintain a positive growth outlook for the broadband sector, based on the continued investment in next generation networks by Etisalat and du. Although new investments in fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) will drive up the use of fixed broadband services, we expect mobile broadband to be the main form of internet access. We estimate that by 2020 there will be 3.71mn broadband accesses, up from an estimated 3.23mn at the end of 2016.
|Industry Trends - Mobile|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, TRA, operators|
The United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of United Arab Emirates's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in United Arab Emirates.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for United Arab Emirates to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Emirati telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United Arab Emirates's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Arab Emirates.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.