BMI holds a bullish outlook for sales in the UK vehicle market in 2015, on the back of improving macroeconomic fundamentals and consumer sentiment, cheap and abundant access to credit, and pent-up demand in the market from a period of sustained declines. We forecast 6.3% growth in total vehicle sales in the UK in 2015, coming from a 5.2% increase in the passenger car segment and 13.9% rise in commercial vehicle (CV) sales.
In the passenger car segment, we forecast sales growth to slow slightly in 2015 to 5.2% as consumer spending grows but higher base effects taper sales growth as the market edges closer towards its all-time high of 2.7mn units. Cheap access to credit and increasing real wages and employment will remain the main drivers of consumer spending on cars in 2015, while growing fixed investment and business confidence will boost demand through the company and fleet market channels. Consumers will also be more inclined to shift purchases towards electric vehicles owing to growing government support for purchases and alternative fuel infrastructure development.
However, we stress that as consumers expand car purchases through the use of credit over the next two years this threatens long-term growth potential in the market. More specifically, the growth of PCP financing funding threatens the sustainability of the UK's current car sales boom by increasing the likelihood of a mismatch between supply and demand in both the new and used vehicle markets in the future.
BMI forecasts a 13.9% increase in UK commercial vehicle (CV) sales in 2015, far exceeding the 5.2% growth forecast for passenger car sales. Over 2014 sales of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) drove CV sales up. We see this trend continuing over 2015 and forecast LCV purchases to grow 13.6% as a continued boom in private consumption expands demand for LCVs further. We also forecast heavy truck volumes to normalise after Euro-6 regulations in 2013 destabilised the market in 2013 and 2014...
The United Kingdom Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United Kingdom Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Kingdom.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the British automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the British automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.