United Kingdom Autos Report

Published 24 December 2014

  • 58 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United Kingdom Autos Report

BMI holds a bullish outlook for the UK passenger car market going into 2015, on the back of improving consumer sentiment and pent-up demand in the market from a period of sustained declines. We forecast 5.6% growth in vehicle sales off the back of increases of 5.2% and 8.3% in the passenger car and commercial vehicle segments, respectively.

In the first 11 months of 2014, passenger car sales increased 9.4% on the back of improvements in private consumption, cheaper access to credit and pent-up demand. In 2015, we forecast sales growth to reach 5.2% as consumer confidence continues to build but higher base effects taper sales growth somewhat. Furthermore, our country risk team continues to highlight that business confidence and fixed investment remain somewhat fickle but a modest resurgence in these indicators could help boost sales from companies and fleet purchases. This provides upside risk to our bullish forecast.

BMI forecasts a 8.3% increase in UK commercial vehicle (CV) sales in 2015. Over 2014 sales of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) have driven CV sales up. We see this trend continuing over 2015 as a continued boom in private consumption expands demand for LCVs further. We also forecast heavy truck sales to normalise after market regulation changes in 2013 and 2014 destabilised the market considerably. BMI maintains a modest forecast of 2.6% growth in vehicle production in the UK in 2015. This view has been informed by our positive outlook for the domestic passenger car segment and our expectation of a slight recovery in export demand despite ongoing sales declines in Russia. We expect commercial vehicle production to outperform over the year and forecast a 10.9% increase in CV output. However, CVs constitute a relatively small proportion of total vehicle output.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2018)
12
Sales Forecast And Analysis
12
Production Forecasts And Analysis
13
Trade
14
Passenger Cars
14
Passenger Cars Forecasts And Analysis
14
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2018)
14
Sales
15
Production
15
Alternative Fuels
16
Company News
17
Commercial Vehicles
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2018)
19
Sales
19
Production
20
Motorcycles
21
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2012-2018)
21
Suppliers
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Company Profile
28
Porsche
28
Regional Overview
31
Europe Overview
31
Global Industry Overview
33
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
33
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
33
Trucks Give North America A Lift
34
India Brings Relief To BRICs
36
Demographic Forecast
38
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
39
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
40
Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
41
Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
41
Methodology
42
Industry Forecasts
42
Sector-Specific Methodology
43
Sources
43
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
44
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
45
Macroeconomic Forecasts
46
Economic Analysis
46
Table: UNITED KINGDOM - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
51

The United Kingdom Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's United Kingdom Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United Kingdom.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the British automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the British automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc