United Kingdom Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

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  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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United Kingdom Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Real GDP growth in the UK economy has outperformed most major developed states in recent years, and after a slowdown in 2016 in part driven by 'Brexit' uncertainty, will continue to surpass the eurozone over the medium term.

  • In light of positive structural economic reforms undertaken by the government, coupled with flexible monetary and exchange rate policies, we remain bullish on the long-term economic prospects for the UK relative over the longer term.

Major Forecast Changes.

  • We have revised down our real GDP growth forecast in 2016 to 1.8%, from 2.5% previously, on the back of weaker global growth and drag on confidence from the UK's upcoming referendum on EU membership.

Key Risks

  • Downside Risks To Medium-Term Growth: There are downside risks to our economic growth forecasts, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation, persistent weakness in the eurozone economy, and ongoing headwinds facing global emerging markets.

  • Brexit Risks Still Underpriced: We believe there is a non-negligible chance that the British electorate will vote to leave the EU at the upcoming referendum, which poses material risks to the UK's growth and investment outlook, as well as the performance of a number of sectors including banking, chemicals and the automotive industry.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2018)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: BMI/ONS
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,991.8 2,848.5 2,725.6 2,870.4 3,181.2
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.9 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 0.5 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.2
Exchange rate GBP/USD, eop 0.64 0.68 0.69 0.69 0.61
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.1 -4.0e -3.7 -2.6 -2.3
Current account balance, % of GDP -5.1 -5.2 -4.7 -4.3 -3.9
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Economy Healthcheck: Underwhelming ECB Action Clears Path For Rate Hikes
8
TABLE: ECONOMIC DASHBOARD
9
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
11
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
11
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
11
External Trade And Investment Outlook
11
Gradual Improvement In External Accounts Lies Ahead
11
Outlook On External Position
12
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT
12
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
13
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS
14
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS
14
Monetary Policy
15
BoE To Hold Fire Until Q216
15
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
16
Monetary Policy Framework
16
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
16
Autumn Statement: Not The End Of Austerity
16
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
17
Structural Fiscal Position
17
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
19
The UK Economy To 2025
19
UK Will Outperform Eurozone Over The Long Term
19
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
19
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
21
SWOT Analysis
21
BMI Political Risk Index
21
Domestic Politics
22
Brexit: Cameron Lays His Cards On The Table
22
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
22
Long-Term Political Outlook
24
Eight Factors That Could Cloud The 2020 General Election
24
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
27
SWOT Analysis
27
Operational Risk Index
27
Operational Risk
28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
28
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
32
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
34
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
37
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
39
Global Macro Outlook
39
Unfinished Business In 2016
39
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
39
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
40
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
40
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
41
TABLE: UNITED KINGDOM - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
43

Assess your risk exposure in United Kingdom with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in United Kingdom with confidence.

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