United Kingdom Country Risk Report


Updated July 2016 with BMI’s revised post-Brexit forecasts, updated core views and full analysis of the impact of Brexit on the UK. The report provides comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company in post-Brexit United Kingdom
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change in the post-Brexit United Kingdom

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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United Kingdom Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,245.00

Assess your risk exposure in United Kingdom with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in United Kingdom with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Worst-Case Scenarios Avoided, But Slowdown Still Coming
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
10
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
10
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
11
Infrastructure Stimulus 2
11
Structural Fiscal Position
14
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
14
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
14
External Trade And Investment Outlook
15
EMs To Drive UK Exports Post-Brexit
15
TABLE: FUTURE EM DEMAND FOR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT
18
TABLE: SELECT EMERGING MARKETS - GROWTH IN PHARMACEUTICAL SALES
19
Outlook On External Position
21
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
21
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
22
TABLE: EXPORTS
22
TABLE: IMPORTS
22
Currency Forecast
23
GBP: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish
23
TABLE: BMI CURRENCY FORECAST
24
Monetary Policy
25
Rising Hurdles To Additional Easing
25
Monetary Policy Framework
27
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
27
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
29
The UK Economy To 2025
29
Brexit Not Necessarily A Drag On Long-Term Trend Growth
29
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
29
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
33
SWOT Analysis
33
BMI Political Risk Index
33
Domestic Politics
34
Article 50 to Presage Soft-Ish Brexit
34
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
36
What Is Brexit-
36
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
39
SWOT Analysis
39
Operational Risk Index
39
Operational Risk
40
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LABOUR MARKET RISK
40
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - LOGISTICS RISK
43
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - CRIME AND SECURITY RISK
46
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES - TRADE AND INVESTMENT RISK
48
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
51
Global Macro Outlook
51
Broad Recovery But Three Notes Of Caution
51
TABLE: GLOBAL FORECASTS, 2015-2020
51
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
52
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
53
TABLE: UNITED KINGDOM - MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
55