BMI View: We have updated our insurance market forecasts this quarter to incorporate the anticipated impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU) following the June 2016 referendum. While regulatory changes will take some time to enact, as the UK progresses through the necessary parliamentary motions and two-year EU negotiation period, there will be a near-term impact on the market by financial market fluctuations and currency movements. We have therefore made downwards revisions to our 2016 forecasts for both the life and non-life sectors. We note, however, that the UK insurance market is large, well-capitalised and home to a number of major multinational providers with expertise in a range of sectors. It is therefore well-positioned to handle the transition period and, dependent upon the wider economic trajectory in the UK, is expected to see positive growth over the medium term.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, ONS|
|Gross life premiums written, GBPbn||108.18||116.76||118.12||117.79||124.04||133.13||143.95||152.95|
|Gross life premiums written, GBP, % y-o-y||-4.7||7.9||1.2||-0.3||5.3||7.3||8.1||6.3|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||169.15||192.23||180.50||168.26||182.41||201.71||228.49||250.73|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-6.0||13.6||-6.1||-6.8||8.4||10.6||13.3||9.7|
|Gross non-life premiums written, GBPbn||43.07||43.54||43.41||43.75||44.22||44.76||45.30||45.85|
|Gross non-life premiums written, GBP, % y-o-y||0.8||1.1||-0.3||0.8||1.1||1.2||1.2||1.2|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||67.34||71.68||66.34||62.50||65.03||67.82||71.90||75.16|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-0.6||6.5||-7.5||-5.8||4.1||4.3||6.0||4.5|
Key Updates And Forecasts
Many leading insurance providers have made statements in recent weeks to reassure consumers and investors alike in the wake of the EU referendum results. The country's largest non-life insurance provider, Aviva, has released a statement noting the group's solvency ratio remained close to the top of its working range of 150-180 percent and furthermore promised to increase dividend payouts in 2017.
Insurers are being affected by stock market volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. Major providers Aviva, Standard Life and M&G (part of Prudential) have all suspended trading in the UK's largest commercial property fund in early July 2016, noting the sharp increase in investors withdrawing funds amid concerns relating to the likely trajectory of the commercial property segment.
Overall we expect the non-life market to achieve some growth in 2016, albeit limited, led primarily by the compulsory motor insurance segment and growing demand for private health insurance which should be sufficient to offset likely falls in property and transport insurance. Overall non-life premiums are forecast to grow by 0.8% to reach GBP43.8bn, though the fall in the value of the pound means this will translate to a fall of 5.8% in US dollar terms.
The larger life market faces a more challenging short-term outlook, with premiums expected to fall by 0.3% in 2016 to reach GBP117.8bn (in US dollar terms falling 6.8% to USD168.3bn). Consumers, both group and individual, are expected to take a cautious approach to investment over the latter half of 2016 and the potential decrease in the Bank of England base rate.
The United Kingdom Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's United Kingdom Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the British insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in United Kingdom's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United Kingdom through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.