BMI View: Our outlook for the UK's insurance market is broadly positive at present. In the larger life insurance sector, improving household income rates and strong demographic trends will support a solid uptick in premium growth between 2016 and 2020, leading to life insurance accounting for over 75% of all insurance premiums written by the end of the forecast period. Growth will be more subdued in the non-life sector, partly a result of intense pricing pressure in highly competitive lines such as motor and property insurance, and also reflecting the overall maturity of th is well- established market. Health and personal accident insurance will likely remain the strongest non-life growth sectors, outpacing the remainder of the non-life market.
|Gross life premiums written, GBPbn||108.18||116.76||123.92||129.47||134.67||139.52||148.11||155.65|
|Gross life premiums written, GBP, % y-o-y||-4.7||7.9||6.1||4.5||4.0||3.6||6.2||5.1|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||169.17||192.25||197.96||203.89||212.08||228.72||242.80||255.17|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-6.0||13.6||3.0||3.0||4.0||7.9||6.2||5.1|
|Gross non-life premiums written, GBPbn||44.30||45.18||45.42||46.11||46.87||47.67||48.49||49.32|
|Gross non-life premiums written, GBP, % y-o-y||3.7||2.0||0.5||1.5||1.6||1.7||1.7||1.7|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||69.28||74.39||72.56||72.62||73.82||78.15||79.49||80.85|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||2.3||7.4||-2.5||0.1||1.6||5.9||1.7||1.7|
Key Updates & Forecasts
New regulations under Solvency II, which became effective across the EU on 1 January 2016, have come under criticism from the UK Treasury and the Bank of England, which have submitted a call for an earlier than planned review and key changes to the European Commission. The UK Treasury reportedly has concerns surrounding long-term investments, while the Bank of England has raised technical concerns.
The UK has announced it will hold a referendum to determine future membership of the EU on 23 June 2016. There are concerns that a potential exit of the EU would impact negatively on the UK insurance market, particularly for large UK based firms which have a strong presence across the EU and benefit from its single market status. At this stage it is also unclear what, if any, the impact would be on the UK's insurance regulatory system.
The impact of flooding in parts of the UK in December 2015 are being revealed. Lloyds Banking Group reportedly expects to pay some GBP60mn (USD85.68mn) in related claims, while Direct Line expects claims totaling GBP140mn (including claims from January 2016 storms). Overall the Association of British Insurers estimated flood claims costs will reach GBP1.3bn.
At present we are broadly maintaining our forecasts for steady growth in the UK's insurance market. The larger life sector will see strongest growth, with premiums forecast to rise by around 4.7% annually (in local currency terms) between 2016 and 2020, while non-life insurance will increase by around 1.7%.
The United Kingdom Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's United Kingdom Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the British insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in United Kingdom's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United Kingdom through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.