United Kingdom Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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United Kingdom Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Plans to phase out the UK's remaining coal-fired power capacity by 2025 cement the decline of coal, which is already occurring due to tightening EU emissions directives, the UK's carbon price floor and a sustained period of lower gas prices. The biggest challenge when removing coal from the energy mix will be mobilising investment into replacement gas capacity, which will certainly require reform of the UK's capacity mechanism.

Headline Power Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 311.636 313.090 315.270 317.718 317.755 318.855 319.681
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 303.9 302.3 305.4 306.3 307.2 307.8 308.6
Capacity, Net, MW 91,054.5 93,581.1 95,699.0 98,099.7 99,468.3 99,667.6 101,701.4
  • We have decided to factor the UK's plans to close all of its coal-fired capacity by 2025 into our 10-year forecasts. We remain cognisant of considerable risks to this plan - not least that the government will have to incentivise the construction of replacement gas-fired generation via alterations to its capacity mechanism, but we believe the direction of travel with regards to phasing out aging coal capacity is clear. We forecast coal will account for just 5% of total electricity generation by the end of our forecast period in 2024 and we will look to reduce this to zero when we extend our forecasts to 2025.

  • On November 4 2015, National Grid was forced to use a series of emergency measures to prevent power cuts as its reserves ran low. National Grid paid the owner of the Severn power station Calon aboutnd GBP2,500 (USD3,771) per MWh to provide an additional 500MW for two hours.

  • Chinese Premier Xi Jin Ping signed a deal for Chinese investment in Hinkley Point C during a state visit to London in October 2015. China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) will buy a 33.5% stake in the plant for GBP6bn (USD9.3bn), while EDF will own the remaining stake.

  • Prior to the signing of the agreement, EDF said in September 2015 the nuclear project, which was scheduled to open in 2023, will be delayed until 2025 amid reports that cost overruns at two nuclear reactors under construction in France and Finland have made potential investors wary of joining a consortium led by France's EDF.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
United Kingdom Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
United Kingdom Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
15
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
21
Table: The Hinkley Point Consortium
34
Table: UK Planned Nuclear Projects
36
Electricity Consumption
38
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
38
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
38
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
39
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
39
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
39
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2013-2018)
39
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (United Kingdom 2019-2024)
39
Industry Risk/Reward Index
43
Power Risk/Reward Index
43
Table: NAWE Power RRI
47
United Kingdom Power Risk/Reward Index
48
Rewards
48
Risks
48
Market Overview
50
Key Policies And Market Structure
50
Regulation And Competition
50
Table: Key Components Of The Energy Bill
52
Sustainable Energy Policies
53
Pricing
54
United Kingdom Power Projects Database
56
Competitive Landscape
70
EDF Energy
70
The National Grid Company
70
E
71
RWE npower
71
SSE
72
Scottish Power
73
Centrica
73
Company Profile
75
EDF
75
Regional Overview
81
NAWE Power: Key Regional Themes
81
Glossary
88
Table: Glossary Of Terms
88
Methodology
89
Industry Forecast Methodology
89
Sources
92
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
92
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
93
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
94

The United Kingdom Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks United Kingdom's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).