BMI View: Our view that the UK's Conservative government will focus on energy security and affordability at the expense of renewable energy policies is firmly in play. Energy security and the construction of new gas power plants could be boosted by the implementation of a capacity mechanism and falling gas prices, while efforts to improve transparency in the utilities sector could create greater competition and a better deal for consumers.
Many of the views we outlined ahead of the UK's May 2015 general election are firmly in play - with a clear Conservative majority at least giving investors and utilities some clarity over future energy policy. With regards to our key views, we maintain that Prime Minister David Cameron and his Conservative government will struggle to balance concerns about energy security, affordability and green energy policies - the so-called 'energy trilemma'. We maintain that the government will focus on the first two areas at the expense of policies associated with renewables and sustainability. A series of cuts to onshore wind and solar subsidies, as well as roll back on a number of energy efficiency measures and the sale of the Green Investment Bank, support this view.
In the traditional power segment, we maintain that the biggest challenges facing the government relate to energy security. National Grid, which operates the majority of the UK's grid network, stated in July 2015 that UK power capacity margins will fall to their lowest level in a decade over winter 2015/2016 due to an absence of investment in new power plant capacity. The closure of coal plants to comply with tightening EU emission regulations and weak margins on gas-fired power plants due to low wholesale electricity prices will mean that capacity margins remain tight over the next few years. This will continue until market dynamics - or government incentives - lead to the construction of new gas or nuclear capacity.
Key Trends And Developments
Questions remain over...
The United Kingdom Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The United Kingdom Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks United Kingdom's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).