BMI View: We expect growth in the British non-hydropower renewables segment to slow down over our 10-year forecast period, as widespread subsidy cuts and heightened policy uncertainty will lower the attractiveness of the market. The austere energy policy that is being rolled out by the new Conservative majority government will therefore lead to a tougher environment for renewable energy in the UK over the next five years, and as DECC states that the spending under the LCF is already over budget for the next five years, we see little room for deviation from austerity policy.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: EIA, National Sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||56.311||61.798||66.418||70.334||73.814||76.201||78.542|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||19.057||9.743||7.476||5.897||4.947||3.234||3.073|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||22,490.1||26,367.7||28,360.3||30,102.9||31,398.9||32,480.6||33,477.1|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||26.1||17.2||7.6||6.1||4.3||3.4||3.1|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
DECC forecast that expenditures for renewables subsidy schemes will go over the GBP7.6bn 2020/2021 spending limit allocated under the Levy Control Framework by GBP1.5bn. We therefore see little room for the Conservative party to deviate from its austere renewables policy.
Proposed cuts for the feed-in-tariff scheme for renewables projects with capacity lower than 5MW is currently under consultation with the government. Should the reforms be implemented, a spending cap of GBP75-100mn for the next four years and quarterly degressions will lower the attractiveness of distributed energy solutions.
On July 22 2015, the Department of Energy and Climate Change announced that it would cut premium subsidies...
The United Kingdom Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in United Kingdom. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in United Kingdom, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in United Kingdom, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's United Kingdom Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Kingdom renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the United Kingdom renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in United Kingdom, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.