United States Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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United States Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: We have revised up our 2016/17 corn and soybean production forecasts due to exceptional weather during the growing season . Livestock will see some mild improvem ent in production growth owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest producti on growth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We believe grains production will generally stagnate due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices. A possible election victory by Donald Trump presents moderate-to-strong downside risks to our production and consumption forecasts.

Key Trends

  • Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 8.2% to 11.7mn tonnes. Production will improve over our forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete.

  • Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 9.3% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

  • Corn production growth to 2019/20: 11% to 383.2mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of genetically modified seeds) are waning. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

  • Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 6% to 113mn tonnes. Soybean production will stagnate beyond the record harvest in 2016/17 as low prices will constrain growth in plantings while normalised weather conditions will reduce yields.

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 1.5% y-o-y, down from 2.4% in 2015, expected to average 2% between 2016 and 2020.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2012-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Industry Developments

A Hillary Clinton victory over Republican challenger Donald Trump would be preferable for the sprawling US agriculture industry, even though such a victory largely preserves the status quo. A Trump victory would be problematic for the sector, especially in the areas of labour, trade, and future farm bills. A secondary concern would be the rollback of financial regulations, which could lead to increased grain price volatility.

Key Takeaways:

  • Clinton victory more favourable to US agriculture sector despite representing status quo

  • Trump victory would damage US agriculture sector prospects through crackdown on illegal immigration and threats to re-negotiate US trade agreements

  • Fruits, tobacco and vegetables sub-sector especially vulnerable to Trump's proposals, grains and livestock processing would be less (but still) affected.

  • Clinton victory core view means no changes to price and fundamental forecasts; a Trump victory presents moderate-to-significant downside risks to US agricultural forecasts as well as our grain, milk, and sugar price forecasts.

Food package labelling will be a key issue in the US agribusiness sector over the coming quarters, particularly in the context of the World Health Organization's declaration that several red meat products are to some extent carcinogenic. More narrowly, we see downside risks to red meat consumption in the US over the coming years, especially if state governments attempt to restrict red meat consumption through taxes or marketing campaigns.

Growing US consumer awareness will help to drive domestic meat processers to continue examining and amending their production methods in the coming years. A reduction in the use of animal steroids and antibiotics may increase brand equity for these companies, but it may also increase operating costs in an industry that already has low margins and is likely to see slowing sales growth over the coming quarters.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: United States - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
11
Table: Risks To Outlook
12
Structural Trends
12
Table: United States - Grains Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
14
Dairy Outlook
15
Latest Updates
15
Table: United States - Dairy Production & Consumption Outlook
15
Table: Risks To Outlook
16
Structural Trends
16
Table: United States - Dairy Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
18
Soybean Outlook
19
Latest Updates
19
Table: United States - Soybean Production & Consumption Outlook
19
Table: Risks To Outlook
19
Structural Trends
20
Table: United States - Soybean Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
22
Sugar Outlook
23
Latest Updates
23
Table: United States - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
23
Table: Risks To Outlook
23
Structural Trends
24
Table: United States - Sugar Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
25
Livestock Outlook
26
Latest Updates
26
Table: United States - Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
26
Table: Risks To Outlook
27
Structural Trends
27
Table: United States - Beef, Pork & Poultry Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
30
Cotton Outlook
31
Latest Updates
31
Table: United States - Cotton Production & Consumption Outlook
31
Table: Risks To Outlook
32
Structural Trends
32
Table: United States - Cotton Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes)
36
Commodities Price Analysis
37
Global - Global Commodities Strategy
37
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts
37
Upstream Analysis
39
Americas GM Outlook
39
Americas Machinery Outlook
45
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates)
48
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
52
Downstream Analysis
58
Food
58
Latest Updates
58
Structural Trends
59
Table: Food Sales (United States 2013-2020)
60
Regional Overview
62
Competitive Landscape
69
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
69
Demographic Forecast
70
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025)
71
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025)
71
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025)
72
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025)
73
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sector-Specific Methodology
76

The United States Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.