BMI View: Corn and soybean production season will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2016/17 , yet will still be among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mild improvem ent in production growth in 2015/16 , mainly owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains complex. We believe grains production will stagnate overall due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.
Beef production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 7% to 11.9mn tonnes. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period, but we expect improvements in production starting in 2016.
Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 7% to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second-largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
Corn production growth to 2018/19: 4.0% to 360.7mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of GM seeds) are waning.
Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 0% to 106mn tonnes. We have revised down our soybean production growth forecasts as low prices will lead to reduced growth in plantings, while yields will suffer due to reduced input usage.
2016 real GDP growth: 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 2.5% in 2015.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, which will come into force in late 2017, will have significant implications for the agricultural sectors of the 12 signatories, as the deal will liberalise trade for a large number of bulk and value-added commodities. US, Canadian and Australian producers will be the main winners of the deal, along with Vietnamese and Chilean exporters, as they gain market share at the expense of non-TPP members. EU, Indonesian and Japanese farmers will be the main losers.
Food package labelling will be a key issue in the US agribusiness sector over the coming quarters, particularly in the context of the WHO's declaration that several red meat products are to some extent carcinogenic. More narrowly, we see downside risks to red meat consumption in the US over the coming years, especially if state governments attempt to restrict red meat consumption through taxes or marketing campaigns.
Sugar prices in the US will decline from current levels owing to strong global supply and abundant imports from Mexico. This will cause US sugar production to stagnate over the coming few years, though we expect the global ICE benchmark price to outperform the domestic US price.
Growing US consumer awareness will help to drive domestic meat processers to continue examining and amending their production methods in the coming years. A reduction in the use of animal steroids and antibiotics may increase brand equity for these companies, but it may also increase operating costs in an industry that already has low margins and is likely to see slowing sales growth over the coming quarters.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)|
|e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: FAO, BMI|
The United States Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.