United States Agribusiness Report

Published 26 June 2015

  • 98 pages
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United States Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Corn and soybean production season will decline year-on-year in the upcoming 2015/16 , yet will still be among the largest crops in US agricultural history. Livestock will see some mild improvement in production growth in 2014/15, mainly owing to the poultry and pork sectors. The dairy sector is likely to see some improvement, but a record drought in California (the largest producing state) leads to strong downside production risks. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest production growth potential for soybeans among the grains complex. We believe grains production will stagnate overall due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices.

Key Trends

  • Beef production growth 2013/14 to 2018/19: 5.1% to 11.9mn tonnes. We have again revised our beef production forecasts lower due to herd rebuilding in 2013, which is likely to lead to fewer cows available for slaughter. The length of the cattle cycle means we expect production to stagnate until the end of our forecast period.

  • Poultry production growth to 2018/19: 13.6% to 22.9mn tonnes. The US is the world's second-largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.

  • Corn production growth to 2018/19: 4.0% to 368.0mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of GM seeds) are waning.

  • Soybean production growth to 2018/19: 24.2% to 113.6mn tonnes. Soybean production growth will outpace that of corn over the medium term as farmers will switch from corn to soybean on a wider basis, as the production costs for the latter are generally cheaper.

  • 2015 real GDP growth: 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 2.4% in 2014.

  • 2015 consumer price index: 1.1% y-o-y average, down from 1.6% in 2014.

...
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Operational Risk
10
Industry Forecast
11
Grains Outlook
11
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
12
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
12
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
12
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
15
Dairy Outlook
16
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
17
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
17
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
17
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
21
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
22
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
22
Soybean Outlook
23
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
24
Table: Soybean Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
26
Sugar Outlook
27
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
27
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
30
Livestock Outlook
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
32
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
32
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
33
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
33
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
33
Cotton Outlook
35
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2013-2019)
36
Table: Cotton Production & Consumption (United States 2009-2014)
37
Commodities Price Analysis
38
Monthly Softs Strategy
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
47
Monthly Grains Strategy
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
55
Upstream Analysis
56
Americas GM Outlook
56
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
62
Downstream Analysis
68
Food
68
Food Consumption
68
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
69
Confectionery
69
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
70
Dairy
71
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
71
Drink
74
Alcoholic Drinks
74
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
77
Soft Drinks
78
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
79
Hot Drinks
80
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
81
Mass Grocery Retail
82
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2012-2019)
83
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
84
Regional Overview
85
Competitive Landscape
90
Table: United States Agribusiness Competitive Landscape
90
Demographic Forecast
91
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025)
92
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025)
92
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025)
93
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025)
94
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Sector-Specific Methodology
97

The United States Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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