BMI View: We have revised up our 2016/17 corn and soybean production forecasts due to exceptional weather during the growing season . Livestock will see some mild improvem ent in production growth owing to the poultry and beef sectors. Over the long term, the poultry sub-sector will remain the outperformer in the livestock complex and we see the strongest producti on growth potential for soybean among the grains complex. We believe grains production will generally stagnate due to a lower planted area on the back of lower prices. The election victory by Donald Trump presents moderate-to-strong downside risks to our production and consumption forecasts.
Beef production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 4% to 11.8 mn tonnes. Production will improve over our forecast period due to heavier animal weights and as the sector's rebuilding phase is largely complete. Our lowered growth forecast is due to high base effects.
Poultry p roduction growth to 2019/20: % to 23.3mn tonnes. The US is the world's second largest poultry exporter, behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, is likely to serve as a powerful production incentive.
Corn production growth to 2019/20: 9% to 378 .2mn tonnes. Corn production growth will slow over the next five years as opportunities to increase yields (such as through the adoption of genetically modified seeds) are waning. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.
Soybean production growth to 2019/20: 16% to 122 mn tonnes. Soybean production will stagnate beyond the record harvest in 2016/17 as low prices will constrain growth in plantings while normalised weather conditions will reduce yields.
2017 real GDP growth: 1.9 % y-o-y, down from 1.6% in 2016, expected to average 1.9% between 2016 and 2020.
|Agribusiness Market Value|
|BMI Market Value By Commodity, % (2012-2020)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI|
Donald Trump's surprise victory will have considerable repercussions across the agriculture industry over the coming years, starting with financial market ramifications over the coming months and ultimately continuing towards the end of our five-year forecasts. However, the extent of the impact will be largely determined by how closely Trump sticks to his campaign proposals, some of which (particularly those related to immigration) are arguably unworkable. We have attempted to present Trump's positions in a recent agribusiness primer on the US election (see 'US Agriculture Election Primer Part 1: Issues And Candidate Positions', August 26).
Over the medium term (two-to-three years), much will depend on the next Farm Bill (which is due in 2018) as well as Trump's willingness to adhere to his campaign proposals, some of which are borderline incendiary.
Trump verbally altered some of his proposals during the campaign, such as his proposed deportation of all illegal immigrants from the US. Whether he sticks to this and other proposals (including banning temporary guest worker visas) remains to be seen. Given that the Republicans appear to have maintained control of the senate, Trump will have relatively limited opposition to his platform. Should he follow through with stated plans to abolish guest worker visas, or to put an end to NAFTA, the US farm industry would suffer from domestic gluts and likely lower prices. Fruit prices, however, would be expected to increase considerably as labour becomes scare.
The United States Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.
BMI's United States Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
- Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.
BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts
Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.
- Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
- Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
- Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
- BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.
BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis
Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.
Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.
Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.
The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.
Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market
Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean
Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.
The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.