While our view that the light vehicle market would return to 16mn units in 2014 and that the light truck market would outperform still very much hold true, the strength of demand has surpassed initial expectations. With December sales expected to have continued the period of strong sales growth with more holiday discounts on offer and fuel prices trending lower, we have revised our full-year estimate slightly, with the total volume being largely unchanged but the growth projection reflecting the truck outperformance even more markedly. The passenger car element has been lowered slightly, to growth of 1.0% from 2.0% previously. We have revised up the light truck forecast from 8.0% to 9.0%.
The launch of several new models, including the new Ford F-150, the country's best-selling model, combined with sustained strength in the housing market as homebuilder confidence and permits continue to trend higher, will mean another strong year for light trucks in 2015. We forecast truck sales growth of 6.0%, with passenger car sales to grow at a slightly slower rate of 0.6%.
This is also a slight revision from our previous forecast (again, higher for truck sales and lower for car sales), as we expect lower oil prices to continue supporting a preference for the light truck market. Looking beyond this point, however, we expect growth to be much lower. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed with a return to 16mn units. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we expect sales growth for 2016 and 2017 to average 2.0%.
We maintain our forecast for total medium and heavy truck sales to grow 10.0% to 386,910 units in 2014, pushing the market closer to the 400,000 unit mark last seen in 2005. This will be achieved in 2015, when we expect sales to grow a...
The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.