We expect lower oil prices to continue supporting a preference for the light truck market within our forecast for light vehicle sales to grow 3.6% in 2015. Looking beyond this point, however, we expect growth to be much lower. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed after the return to 16mn units in 2014. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we expect sales growth for 2016 and 2017 to average 2.0%.
In terms of issues facing carmakers, strikes by West Coast port workers brought disruption to vehicle manufacturers in the early months of 2015, again highlighting our view that logistics will become an increasingly important area of focus in the sector. However, it also throws a spotlight on the issue of labour relations in the US, just months before GM, Ford and FCA are due to begin contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union.
The Detroit Three are due to begin talks with the UAW in the summer, following strikes in the port and oil refinery sectors. Much has changed over the last four years as carmakers can no longer claim to be in recovery mode and the UAW will now once again have the right to strike, which it waived during the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies of 2009.
Indeed, the manufacturing outlook is positive based on round-up of investment projects. Tying in with our view that SUVs will be a global segment of choice in 2015, demand from the US is prompting investment in more capacity. Another of our views on South Carolina developing as a hub for tyre makers is also playing out, while a number of projects in Canada suggest the production industry there still has a lot to offer in supplying US demand for vehicles.
The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.