The US light vehicle market will pass 17mn units in 2015 for the first time since 2001, growing 3.6%. The launch of several new models, including the new Ford F-150, the country's best-selling model, combined with sustained strength in the housing market as homebuilder confidence and permits continue to trend higher, will mean another strong year for light trucks in 2015. We forecast truck sales growth of 6.0%, with passenger car sales to grow at a slightly slower rate of 0.6%.
In May, the market grew 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) fuelled by holiday promotions, strong credit growth and lower fuel prices. Demand is still heavily weighted toward sport utility vehicle (SUV) and light truck sales, up 6.8% y-o-y in May, while sales of passenger cars fell 3.7% y-o-y. For 5M15, the light truck market is up 10.0% y-o-y, compared with a 1.3% y-o-y decline for cars.
One bright spot for the passenger car segment is the battery electric market, which was the only alternative fuel segment to achieve positive growth in both May and 5M15. As we outlined previously, however, not all electric car brands will weather the low oil price environment. The segment is being carried by premium brands, which are making models that are attractive in their own right rather than being purely focused on reducing fuel costs. This also aligns with our view on the wider passenger car market that any growth achieved will come in the premium segment.
In the heavier market, a resurgent consumer will contribute to average annual road freight tonnage growth of 6.2% over the next five years, which will support total medium and heavy duty truck sales of over 500,000 units for the first time by 2019. In the first five months of 2015, sales of Class 4-8 trucks were up 13% y-o-y to 173,238 units, prompting us to revise up our full-year forecast to growth of 6%, taking the market to just over 430,000 units.
Growth is largely being driven by the heaviest Class 8, which grew 22% y-o-y for the five-month period....
The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.