United States Autos Report

Published 07 January 2015

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United States Autos Report

While our view that the light vehicle market would return to 16mn units in 2014 and that the light truck market would outperform still very much hold true, the strength of demand has surpassed initial expectations. With December sales expected to have continued the period of strong sales growth with more holiday discounts on offer and fuel prices trending lower, we have revised our full-year estimate slightly, with the total volume being largely unchanged but the growth projection reflecting the truck outperformance even more markedly. The passenger car element has been lowered slightly, to growth of 1.0% from 2.0% previously. We have revised up the light truck forecast from 8.0% to 9.0%.

The launch of several new models, including the new Ford F-150, the country's best-selling model, combined with sustained strength in the housing market as homebuilder confidence and permits continue to trend higher, will mean another strong year for light trucks in 2015. We forecast truck sales growth of 6.0%, with passenger car sales to grow at a slightly slower rate of 0.6%.

This is also a slight revision from our previous forecast (again, higher for truck sales and lower for car sales), as we expect lower oil prices to continue supporting a preference for the light truck market. Looking beyond this point, however, we expect growth to be much lower. The growth of recent years is becoming increasingly harder to replicate in a mature market as the 'recovery' phase should technically be closed with a return to 16mn units. At the same time, the average length of auto loans being taken out is increasing, which will keep consumers locked into their existing vehicle for longer. With this in mind, we expect sales growth for 2016 and 2017 to average 2.0%.

We maintain our forecast for total medium and heavy truck sales to grow 10.0% to 386,910 units in 2014, pushing the market closer to the 400,000 unit mark last seen in 2005. This will be achieved in 2015, when we expect sales to grow a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
12
Production Investment
13
Table: North American Production Investments, Feb-May 2014
14
Passenger Vehicles
15
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
15
Competitive Landscape
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
17
Table: US Top 10 New Light Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
18
Production
19
Alternative Fuels - Investment
22
Supply Chain
23
Dealers
25
Commercial Vehicles
26
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
26
Table: Class 4 Truck Sales By Brand
28
Table: Class 5 Truck Sales By Brand
28
Table: Class 6 Truck Sales By Brand
29
Table: Class 7 Truck Sales By Brand
29
Table: Class 8 Truck Sales By Brand
30
Segment Developments
30
Macroeconomic Forecast
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
38
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Americas - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Company Profile
44
Company Monitor
44
General Motors (GM)
47
Chrysler
49
Ford Motor
50
Regional Overview
52
Latin America Overview
52
Table: Argentina - Sources Of Autos Financing
53
Global Industry Overview
60
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
60
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
60
Trucks Give North America A Lift
61
India Brings Relief To BRICs
63
Demographic Forecast
65
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
66
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
67
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
68
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecasts
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Sources
70
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
71
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
72

The United States Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's United States Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc