United States Food & Drink Report

Published 30 March 2015

  • 161 pages
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United States Food & Drink Report

The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015, supported by lower oil prices, a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% in 2015, up from an estimated 2.5% in 2014. Over the long term, global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.

Headline Industry Forecasts (local currency)

  • 2015 per capita food consumption = +2.1%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2019 = +4.1%.

  • 2015 alcoholic drinks value sales = +3.2%; CAGR to 2019 = +3.4%.

  • 2015 soft drink value sales = +2.6%; CAGR to 2019 = +1.8%.

  • 2015 mass grocery retail sales = +2.8%; CAGR to 2019 = +2.5%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Starbucks Unveils Five-Year Strategy: Starbucks revealed in March 2015 its five-year growth strategy, headlined by a major seven-stage plan for the brand. Amongst the targets set by the company are increasing its number of stores from 22,000 to 30,000 globally and setting a special focus on growth in China and on tea products. Starbucks' presence in China/Asia Pacific is expected to grow three-fold, doubling to 10,000 across its 15 markets.

Brown Forman Targets Old Forester Revival: US-based alcohol producer Brown Forman plans to invest USD20mn to restore the Old Forester bourbon brand, reported the Wall Street Journal in March 2015. The investment is likely to be used to capitalise on the brand's 'retro appeal,' using point-of-sale materials in retail, promotions at bars and digital marketing. The company has identified the need to grow sales outside the states of Kentucky and Alabama, which contributed almost half of Old Forester volume in 2014.

Coca Cola Posts Disappointing 2014 Results: Coca Cola posted disappointing results for the full-year 2014 with sales volume growth at 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), below the company's long-term sales volume growth target of 3-4%. The company's sparkling drink segment recorded volume growth of 1% and its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
17
Food Consumption
17
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2011-2018)
18
Confectionery
18
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2011-2018)
20
Canned Food
21
Dairy
21
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
21
Drink
23
Alcoholic Drinks
23
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
26
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
28
Hot Drinks
29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
29
Mass Grocery Retail
30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
31
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
32
Trade
33
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (United States 2013-2018)
34
Macroeconomic Forecast
35
Economic Analysis
35
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
40
Market Overview
42
Food
42
Food Consumption
42
Confectionery
42
Canned Food
43
Agriculture
44
Drink
44
Alcoholic Drinks
44
Soft Drinks
46
Hot Drinks
47
Mass Grocery Retail
48
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (United States 2005-2014)
49
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) (United States 2005-2014)
50
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (loccurbn) (United States 2005-2014)
50
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Food
51
Key Industry Trends And Developments
51
Drink
58
Key Industry Trends And Developments
58
Mass Grocery Retail
66
Key Industry Trends And Developments
66
Competitive Landscape
73
Table: Key Players - Food
73
Table: Key Players - Drink
73
Table: Key Players - Mass Grocery Retail
74
Company Profile
75
Mondelez International
75
Kellogg Company
79
Tyson Foods
82
Table: Tyson Foods Financial Data
93
General Mills
93
Table: General Mills' Financial Highlights
100
The Hershey Company
101
The Coca Cola Company
104
Table: The Coca-Cola Company Financial Results
110
Pepsico
111
Table: Revenue Growth & Operating Margin By Segment
113
Table: Selected Companies: Selected Financial Metrics
118
AB Inbev
120
Table: AB InBev Selected Financials and Ratios
125
Table: AB InBev Selected Historical Financial Data
127
Walmart
128
Table: Walmart Financial Highlights
133
Global Industry Overview
134
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
140
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
142
Demographic Forecast
143
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
144
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
145
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
146
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
146
Glossary
147
Food & Drink
147
Mass Grocery Retail
147
Methodology
149
Industry Forecast Methodology
149
Sector-Specific Methodology
150
Sources
150
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
151
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
152
Table: Weighting
153

The United States Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc