United States Freight Transport Report

Published 24 March 2015

  • 92 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Freight Transport Report

BMI Vie w: We maintain our positive outlook for the US freight transport sector for 2015. The US economy's pace of growth is set to slow over the next 10 years to a long-term rate of 2.5% as deleveraging from a massive credit binge and demog raphic shifts takes their toll. Nonetheless, BMI believes that the US is going to remain the world's greatest economic power over our 10-year forecast period and beyond.

With rising consumer confidence and a strengthening economy, we expect import demand to be robust in 2015. Nevertheless, we forecast that import growth will again fail to keep pace with export growth, in largely due to the collapse in the price of fuel, which will greatly reduce the US import bill. Although the US has seen domestic production of oil and gas resources climb substantially, reducing the country's reliance on foreign sources of energy, petroleum and related products still accounted for 14.9% of total goods imports in Q314, and the fact that crude prices have fallen by more than 50% over the past six months will be a major boon to the US terms of trade.

In 2015, export growth will accelerate marginally, to 5.7%, but remain subdued by historical standards - over the past decade, export growth has averaged 7.8%. Europe, the most important destination for US goods and services, is facing significant headwinds given subdued investor sentiment, persistently high unemployment, and considerable political uncertainty regarding the future of the eurozone.

  • At the Port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast growth of 1.6% in total tonnage in 2015, to reach 60.0mn tonnes.

  • At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 4.1% in 2015, to reach 132.45mn tonnes.

  • We predict growth of 3.4% in air freight volumes, to reach 39.7bn tonnes-km in 2015.

  • We predict growth of 3.7% in rail freight tonnes, to reach 1.8bn tonnes in 2015.

Key Industry Trends

Clearing Cargo Backlog May Take 3 Months

Los Angeles and Long Beach port...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Rail Freight
15
Table: Rail Freight (United States 2011-2018)
17
Road Freight
18
Table: Road Freight (United States 2011-2018)
19
Air Freight
19
Table: Air Freight (United States 2011-2018)
21
Inland Waterways
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight (United States 2011-2018)
22
Maritime Freight
22
Table: Major Ports Data, (United States 2010-2018)
24
Trade
25
Table: Trade Overview (United States 2011-2018)
25
Table: Key Trade Indicators (United States 2011-2018)
26
Table: Main Import Partners, USD
28
Table: Main Export Partners
29
Market Overview
30
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Company Profile
46
CSX
46
Norfolk Southern Corporation (Norfolk Southern)
51
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway
57
UPS
63
YRC Worldwide
69
Delta Cargo
74
Horizon Lines
79
Political Outlook
84
Domestic Politics
84
Foreign Policy
86
Long-Term Political Outlook
91
Oil Price Outlook
96
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
96
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
96
Supply Keeps Market Down
96
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
98
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
99
Risks To Outlook
102
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
103
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
103
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
108
Risks To Outlook
109
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
110
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
110
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
112
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
116
Risks To Outlook
117
Macroeconomic Forecasts
119
Economic Analysis
119
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
124
Demographic Forecast
126
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
127
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
128
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
129
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
129
Methodology
130
Industry Forecast Methodology
130
Sector-Specific Methodology
131
Sources
132

The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

BMI Research's United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:

  • Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
  • Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
  • Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Industry Trends and Developments

Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

Political Outlook

The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles*

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc