BMI View: We maintain our positive outlook for healthy growth rates across the US freight sector over the short and medium term, with road set to be the outperformer in 2015. Key factors underlining our freight forecasts include the lower oil prices that will reduce fuel costs across the mix, while positive economic growth outlook will heighten consumer demand.
Continued gains in the labour market and high consumer confidence will see private consumption in the US pick up in the coming quarters, boosting headline growth. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2015, increasing slightly to 2.6% in 2016. Moreover, growth will average around 2.5% over the next 10 years, a significant improvement from the 1.6% average seen over the past decade. Lower fuel costs will also be beneficial to household consumption. These factors will result in steady growth for all freight modes over the coming year.
Turning first to trade, although we believe that the dollar bull run is nearing an end, the greenback will remain strong by historical standards, particularly as investor uncertainty persists in other developed markets such as the eurozone. This, coupled with a strengthening US consumer sector, will bolster demand for imports and diminish export competitiveness. This will lead to a marginal deceleration in export growth to 3.3% in 2015. However, the steep decline in the price of oil will weigh on US crude producers' margins, and reduce the pace of domestic energy production expansion over the next several quarters, requiring greater volumes of fuel imports than would have otherwise been the case. We are looking for imports to grow by 2.3% in 2015.
Next, road freight will continue to be the dominant freight mode in the US in terms of volumes carried over 2015 and into 2019, benefitting from increased consumer demand for imported goods, an uptick in online retail deliveries across the country, and continued demand for grain road freight over short distances. Over the medium...
The United States Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's United States Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
- Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
- Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
- Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
- Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
- Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.