BMI View: The US construction sector will see strong growth in 2015 and then begin to slow in 2016 as the housing market starts to normalise following a steep recover y over recent years. Whil e infrastructure industry value will sustain its recovery it will not be enough to offset a slowdown.
The US construction industry will post strong growth in 2015, supported by a booming residential construction market. We forecast a headline growth rate of 3.8% for 2015, but expect this to slow to 1.5% and average only 1.0% over our ten-year forecast period, as the residential sector normalises. Non-residential building is also weighing on overall construction value, with capex cuts in the energy and mining sectors weighing on industrial construction. Infrastructure presents one of the few positives for the industry, with oil and gas pipelines and transport infrastructure presenting a few bright spots of activity.
Key Trends And Developments
The residential building industry will be the key driver of construction industry growth in 2015, and remain strong into 2016. Our view that residential construction would gain momentum moving into H215 is playing out and we have even revised up our forecast for the year to 6.3% real growth y-o-y, on the back of substantial data revisions by the US Census Bureau. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals have pointed to industry growth throughout much of the year, and now, with the revision, high-frequency data is showing what we had expected to be the case. However, while momentum will be maintained throughout 2016, we believe it will eventually slow as mortgage rates and high prices begin to drag on growth.
The Energy and Utilities Industry will be supported by continued investment into midstream oil and gas infrastructure. Strong growth in oil and gas pipeline construction in 2014 will continue through 2017, albeit at a slowing pace. Weak oil prices and capex cuts will place greater downside pressure on...
The United States Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's United States Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.