BMI View: Continued strength in homebuilding and an increase in investment in transportation infrastructure will sustain growth in the US construction industry in 2016. Although, growth rates will begin to slow as the housing market - the main driver of growth - starts to normalise following a steep recovery in the last few years.
The US construction industry will begin to slow in 2016, but still post a strong growth rate, as the residential construction market continues to boom. We forecast a headline growth rate of 2.4% for 2016, down from an estimated 4.5% in 2015. We expect this slowdown to continue, with the industry to average only 1.2% over our 10-year forecast period, as the residential sector normalises. Infrastructure presents one of the few positives for the industry, with oil and gas pipelines and transport infrastructure presenting a few bright spots of activity.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We revised up our headline figure for the construction industry, in line with an upward revision in the transport infrastructure segment. Public spending on transport infrastructure, especially highways, has increased significantly in the wake of the passage of a five-year highway bill (FAST Act) in December 2015. While the legislation does substantially increase federal funding, it does provide certainty for the budgets of state and local agencies, allowing them to initiate projects. We expect heightened investment over the next several years. However, we forecast a drop in sector growth from 2020 as the bill does not provide sustainable funding for the Highway Trust Fund, which will become insolvent without further action in five years.
The residential building industry will continue to be the key driver of construction industry growth moving into 2016. Leading indicators, including housing starts, permits, and homebuilder confidence all point to continued strength. While momentum will be maintained throughout 2016, we believe it will eventually slow as base effects, increases in mortgage rates and high prices begin to drag on growth.
The energy and utilities industry will be supported by continued investment in midstream oil and gas infrastructure. Strong growth in oil and gas pipeline construction in 2014 will continue through 2017, albeit at a slowing pace. Power and transmission infrastructure, on the other hand, will contract in 2016. We see some potential for value creation over the medium term from retrofitting and safety upgrades to nuclear power plants, a new fleet of natural gas power plants as old coal plants are retired, as well as major transmission projects to hook up new renewable supplies.
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, BMI|
|Construction industry value, USDbn||684.62||713.28||734.39||758.31||782.81||807.91||833.25|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||4.54||2.40||1.01||1.21||1.13||1.11||1.04|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||3.8||3.8||3.8||3.7||3.7||3.6||3.6|
The US's infrastructure RRI score has fallen this quarter - now at 62.4 out of 100 - in line with a slower industry forecast for 2016.
For Industry Rewards, the US scores 40.0 out of 100, reflecting our expectations for modest growth rates over our 10-year forecast period to 2025.
The US receives its best scores for Industry Risks, 75.0 out of 100, due to long-term policy continuity and a business-friendly environment.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The United States Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's United States Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.